817
FXUS64 KLIX 280559
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1159 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1113 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

 - Potential for a brief light freeze tonight for some areas
   north of Lake Pontchartrain and along Mississippi coast. This
   is primarily in the Pearl and Pascagoula River Basins.

 - Hazardous marine conditions through early next week.

 - Entering a wetter pattern beginning Saturday night into Sunday,
   with a second period of rainfall, possibly heavy, Monday night
   and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A more zonal flow pattern in the mid and upper levels will develop
across the Gulf South today and tomorrow as the longwave trough
dominating the region the last few days lifts out of the area.
This zonal flow pattern will allow for a gradual temperature
recovery, but the lingering effects of a 925mb thermal trough axis
will keep temperatures below average today into tonight. The
airmass will also remain exceedingly dry with PWATS lingering near
0.30 inches, or around the 25th percentile for late November. As a
result, another cool night is on tap for Friday night with lows
dropping into the mid to upper 30s north of the I-10/12 corridor.
The one difference from this morning is that increasing cloud
cover is likely to result in the overnight lows occurring closer
to midnight before steadying off or even rising slightly before
sunrise. As a surface high pulls to the east, winds will begin to
veer to a more easterly and eventually southeasterly direction on
Saturday, and temperatures will warm back to more average
readings for this time of year with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

This onshore flow will also start to advect in Gulf moisture, and
PWATS are expected to rise from the 25th percentile in the
morning to the 75th percentile by late evening on Saturday.
As this moisture increases, a deepening trough axis and associated
frontal boundary will push into the region. Increased deep layer
forcing and ample moisture will support a broad area of scattered
to numerous rain shower development by Saturday night across the
entire region. These periods of showers will persist into Sunday
afternoon as the trough axis quickly sweeps through. As the trough
pulls out of the region leaving behind a stalled frontal boundary
along the coast Sunday, lingering scattered showers will continue
through the night. This will be due to both moisture convergence
along the frontal boundary and some weak isentropic lift over the
cooler surface based airmass as winds in the mid-levels remain
southerly and southwesterly. Speaking of the surface based cold
pool, temperatures on Sunday will see a wide gradient with
readings only rising into the upper 50s and lower 60s north of the
front in southwest Mississippi and the Baton Rouge metro, but
readings climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s in coastal
Mississippi, metro New Orleans, and coastal Louisiana. Lows will
also see a decent gradient with the front stalled on the Louisiana
coast with readings dropping into the 40s north of I-10 and lower
50s south of I-10 Sunday night. Overall, confidence has increased
that the front will clear most of the land based zones by Sunday
night as the ECMWF, Canadian, and GFS fall into better agreement
this evening. The NBM also has a greater weighting toward this
cooler solution for Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Forecast confidence has increased as we head into Monday and
Monday night due to the model guidance finally beginning to come
into better agreement. Temperature spread between the models has
decreased to around 10 degrees on Monday, and have opted to
largely split the difference between the models for my forecast by
using NBM 50th percentile values for my daytime highs and
overnight lows Monday into Monday night. This results in daytime
highs on Monday ranging from the lower 50s over southwest
Mississippi to the lower 60s along the coast and overnight lows
ranging from the upper 30s in southwest Mississippi to the lower
50s along the Louisiana coast Monday night.

The pattern will remain very progressive with another southern
stream trough passing through the area Monday into Monday night.
Ample forcing will be in place as both a highly difluent pattern
aloft and favorable jet positioning form over a region of
enhanced baroclincity in the northern Gulf. A rapidly deepening
Gulf low will start to form on Monday and pass directly through
the region Monday night. In the mid- levels, strong isentropic
forcing over the cooler surface based airmass to the north of the
front will also help to support widespread moderate to heavy
stratiform rainfall development from Monday afternoon through
Monday night. PWATS are forecast to rise to daily max value of
around 1.5 inches, and heavy rainfall will be a concern Monday
into Monday night. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches could occur.
Fortunately, any surface based thunderstorm activity looks to be
limited to the offshore waters and possibly areas along the
immediate coast Monday night. To the immediate north of the
front, mid- level lapse rates may support an isolated elevated
thunderstorm within broader stratiform rain shield, but
thunderstorm chances diminish to near zero closer to the I-10
corridor.

All of the model guidance is good agreement that a stronger
frontal boundary will sweep through the region on Tuesday and
rainfall should quickly come to end by early Tuesday morning. A
drier and colder airmass will advect in behind the front and
linger over the area through Wednesday. As this colder airmass
settles in, highs will struggle to climb into the mid 50s Tuesday
afternoon and overnight lows will easily fall below freezing along
and north of the I-10/12 corridor. South of I-10/12, lows will dip
into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Conditions will remain cold on
Wednesday with readings only rising into the upper 50s and lower
60s, but the next trough axis in the persistent zonal flow pattern
aloft will be quickly approaching the area by Wednesday night. As
winds begin to veer back to the east and southeast, low level
moisture advection will take hold. Lows will remain chilly
Wednesday night as temperatures fall into the 40s and lower 50s,
but highs will be closer to average on Thursday as readings rise
into the 60s. At the same time, PWATS will once again surge back
to daily max values over 1.5 inches on Thursday, and the next
southern stream trough will move into the region. The combination
of forcing and instability will allow for another round of rain to
move into the region for Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A very dry and stable high pressure system over the area will keep
VFR conditions in place at all of the terminals through the entire
forecast period. Gusty north and northeast winds will persist
through the period at NEW as stronger winds aloft continue to mix
down over the warmer lake waters. At MSY, north-northeast winds
will peak around 12 knots with higher gusts, but will relax by
the late morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Although the pressure gradient over the coastal waters will weaken
slightly today and tomorrow, winds will still remain elevated at
near 20 knots through Saturday morning over the open Gulf waters.
For the lakes and sounds, slightly lower winds of around 15 knots
are expected.  Given these conditions, the small craft advisory has
been extended in time for the open Gulf waters through midday on
Saturday.  The pressure gradient will further weaken Saturday night
and Sunday as a weak frontal boundary approaches the region.  The
front is projected to push through the waters and stall over the
northern Gulf Sunday night.  Colder air will move back into the
area, and winds will once again increase into small craft advisory
range from Sunday night into Monday.  At the same time, a deepening
low pressure system will pass through the waters Monday into Monday
night, and a surge of much drier and colder air into the area in the
wake of the low will keep small craft advisory conditions in place
through at least Tuesday morning.  Winds and seas should then
gradually decrease Tuesday night into Wednesday as a surface high
builds over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  33  57  35  65 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  36  59  40  70 /   0   0   0  20
ASD  32  60  34  70 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  44  59  47  71 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  36  60  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  31  60  34  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG