356
FXUS64 KLIX 281800
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Elevated fire danger will continue through at least Thursday.
  The ongoing drought conditions and dry fuels combined with low
  humidity and light to moderate winds will lead to potential for
  some fire spread. Residents should obey all burn bans in place
  and exercise extreme caution with any open flames outdoors even
  in areas that do not currently have burn bans in place.

- Although winds will ease today, wind speeds are expected rise
  once again over most of the coastal waters later today into
  Thursday causing additional small craft advisories possibly by
  Thursday.

- Minor coastal flooding is likely along the Mississippi gulf
  coast tonight. A coastal flood advisory is now in effect for
  Hancock County, but the advisory may be extended to include
  other counties/parishes over the next few nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A shortwave ridge axis will pass over the region tonight and
tomorrow and this will help to reinforce the clear skies and low
humidity values we have seen the past several days. PWATS will
remain near the 10th percentile for this of year through tomorrow
afternoon, and have opted to continue using NBM 10th percentile
values for dewpoints through then. Temperatures will maintain the
larger than average diurnal range with highs easily warming into
the upper 70s and lower 80s before quickly cooling a good 25 to 30
degrees during the overnight hours.

Friday will be a day of transition to a more unsettled weather
pattern as the shortwave ridge axis quickly pulls to the east and
a broader trough over the Four Corners begins to eject into the
southern plains states. Winds will shift to a more onshore
component in response to a developing low pressure system over
Texas and Gulf moisture will start to feed back into the area.
Most of the moisture advection on Friday will occur in the low
levels, and a strong mid-level capping inversion will remain in
place due to continued drier and warmer air between 700 and 500mb.
PWATS by Friday night will rise to near the 75th percentile, or
around 1.5 inches, and cloud cover will be on the increase.
Despite the increase in moisture, rain activity will remain
confined offshore through Friday night due the strong mid-level
capping inversion and lack of instability. Temperatures will
climb back into the low 80s Friday afternoon, but the increasing
humidity will keep lows warmer in the 60s for Friday night.

Heading into Halloween day and night, much needed rainfall will
move into the area. This rainfall will form beneath a region of
enhanced forcing aloft associated with the passage of the
shortwave trough axis from the southern plains states through the
Mississippi Valley. Although the majority of the rainfall will be
in the form of light to moderate showers, there continues to be a
risk of some isolated thunderstorm activity forming over the area
Saturday afternoon. This is due some cooling aloft that will allow
allow mid- level lapse rates to steepen to around 6.0 to 6.5 C/KM
resulting in surface based CAPE rising to near 1000 J/KG for
Saturday afternoon and evening. PWATS will be near the 90th
percentile or 1.75 inches on Saturday, so some heavier downpours
could accompany the storms that form. Fortunately, shear
parameters will remain very limited with bulk shear of less than
30 knots expected during the period of peak instability. This will
keep any thunderstorm activity on the weaker side. Overall, rain
chances will be in the 70 percent range Saturday into Saturday
night and rainfall totals could approach an inch by Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The shortwave trough will continue to push east of the area on
Sunday with lingering showers expected over the region in the
morning hours. Increasing negative vorticity advection and
subsidence in the afternoon hours will lead to quickly clearing
skies and rain chances falling to near zero. This increasing
subsidence aloft will be related to another shortwave ridge
building in from the west. In the low levels, the wind field will
remain southerly, so overall humidity values will be little
changed and temperatures will remain above normal for Sunday and
Monday. Highs will easily climb into the low to mid 80s and lows
will only dip into the 60s each day and night.

There are differences between the model solutions for Tuesday with
the GFS being far more progressive with a strong longwave trough
axis and associated cold front diving into the Plains states. The
ECMWF and Canadian both have a slower system that does not move
through until Wednesday. Given the differences in timing with this
system, have opted to stick with the NBM deterministic forecast
for Election Day which results in overcast skies and scattered
showers moving back into the area for Tuesday and Tuesday night in
advance of the approaching trough axis and front. Model soundings
show limited instability at this time, so thunderstorm development
is not anticipated. Temperatures will remain warmer than average
with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Largely VFR conditions will remain in place at the terminals
through tomorrow as a dry and stable high pressure system resides
over the region. However, there is a chance that some patchy fog
could form near HUM between 11z and 13z tomorrow beneath a very
weak inversion, and have included a mention of 5 mile
visibilities for that time period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A prevailing easterly wind will remain in place across the waters
through the upcoming weekend and into early next week as a broad
surface high pressure system sits to the north of the area. Winds
will generally remain in the 10 to 15 knot range in the lakes,
sounds, and bays through the weekend and into early next. However,
the open Gulf waters will see slightly higher winds of 15 to 20
knots over this period, resulting in choppier seas of 3 to 6 feet.
Smaller craft should exercise caution if venturing out into the open
Gulf waters. This persistent east wind will also lead to some minor
coastal flooding of up to one foot above ground level for east
facing shores starting tonight and continuing into the weekend.
There will be some passing showers and a few thunderstorms for
Saturday and Sunday as a weak disturbance aloft passes through, but
no significant impacts to maritime activities are expected from the
weak thunderstorms that do develop.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT
     Thursday for MSZ086.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG