471
FXUS64 KLIX 041856
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
156 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

 - Locally heavy rainfall and a marginal risk of flooding for
   areas south of I-10 on Sunday. Lighter rainfall north of I-10.

 - Winds and seas will remain hazardous through Sunday with Small
   Craft Advisory conditions.

 - Minor coastal flooding along east facing shores of southeast
   LA, including portions of the tidal lakes, and Hancock, MS
   county is expected through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Little change in the forecast from the previous package. A low
pressure system in the north-central Gulf will continue to drift
to the west-northwest tonight into tomorrow before moving inland
over western Louisiana and eastern Texas on Monday. The biggest
impacts from this system continue to be the result of a persistent
easterly flow regime of 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts of up to 30
mph as water piles up on east facing shorelines. Minor coastal
flooding has occurred during the high cycle today, and additional
flooding of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is expected with the
high tide cycle tomorrow. A coastal flood advisory remains in
effect through tomorrow afternoon for locations stretching south
from Hancock County across Lower St. Bernard and into Lower
Plaquemines Parish. Minor flooding of some roads will be the
primary concern.

Beyond the coastal flooding concerns, a surge of deeper moisture
from the Gulf will begin to feed into the region late tonight and
tomorrow. Precipitable water values will rise to between the 75th
percentile and the daily maximum values for this time of year. The
highest values will be along the coast of Louisiana where rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts of up to 6 are
probable. Closer to the I-10 corridor, 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
with some locally higher amounts of up to 4 inches are also
probable. Rainfall totals decrease dramatically north of the I-10
corridor where lower PWATS closer to the 75th percentile will keep
rain totals at an inch or less. A marginal risk for some localized
street flooding will be in place tomorrow, especially for more
urbanized areas like the Southshore. The increased rainfall and
cloud cover will limit daytime heating with highs only warming
into the upper 70s and lower 80s tomorrow.

As the low moves inland on Monday, moisture will linger over the
region with PWATS ranging between the 75th and 90th percentile for
early October. A bit more sunshine will allow temperatures to warm
back to more average levels in the mid 80s Monday afternoon, and
the combination of heating and moisture will support scattered
shower and thunderstorm development. These showers and storms will
be diurnally forced, so drier conditions are anticipated for
Monday night. The wind field will also quickly relax on Monday,
and this will combine with the tides moving into a neap tide phase
to end any coastal flooding concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The long term period will see a strong deep layer ridge axis build
over the region. There will be a trough diving into the eastern
seaboard that will push the center of the ridge axis more over the
southern Plains and Texas by Thursday and Friday. The only impact
this will have is to induce a northerly flow regime and allow for
even drier and more stable air to advect in from the north. Some
lingering moisture with PWATS running in the 50th to 75th
percentile on Tuesday will support widely scattered diurnal
shower and thunderstorm development as temperatures warm into the
mid to upper 80s. Much like Monday, any convection will quickly
wane after sunset with largely dry conditions expected for Tuesday
night. By Wednesday, further drying aloft in response to the
increased subsidence from the strengthening ridge will push PWATS
down to the median for this time of year. Only some isolated to
widely scattered showers and storms are expected in the afternoon
hours and temperatures will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
These readings are a good 5 degrees above normal for this of year.

As the northerly flow pattern mentioned earlier takes hold on
Thursday and Friday, PWATS will once again fall to around 25th
percentile for this time of year, and this will limit cloud
development and rain chances. At most, some isolated showers and
storms could attempt to develop along the weak seabreeze boundary
on the Louisiana coast each afternoon, and this is reflected with
20 percent PoP in this area. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies, low
humidity, and warm temperatures in the upper 80s can be expected
both days. The drier air will also allow for a slightly larger
diurnal range with lows dipping into the mid to upper 60s over
inland locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A low pressure system passing to the south of Louisiana will bring
persistent east winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
through tomorrow afternoon. This system will also lead to lowering
ceilings at all of the terminals this afternoon into tonight. More
coastal terminals are already seeing ceilings ranging between 2000
and 3000 feet, and these MVFR ceilings will spread to the
remainder of the terminals between 06z and 12z tonight. Light to
moderate rainfall will also develop after 06z and persist through
tomorrow afternoon. Visibilities will generally remain between 3
and 5 miles, but some heavier downpours from thunderstorms at
MSY, NEW, and HUM could produce periods of IFR conditions in the
late morning and afternoon hours tomorrow. Overall, a more
unsettled stretch of weather for aviators in the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Low pressure over the north-central Gulf and a high pressure
system over the eastern seaboard will keep a persistent easterly
flow of 15 to 25 knots in place across all of the waters through
tomorrow. These winds will also have a pretty long fetch across
the eastern Gulf waters, and this will support higher seas of up
to 10 feet in the open Gulf waters due to a combination of wind
waves and swell. Small craft advisories are in effect through
Sunday evening due to these hazardous conditions. The high will
start to become more dominant over the waters on Monday and
Tuesday, and this will allow the easterly winds to relax a bit to
between 10 and 15 knots. Seas will also decrease to 2 to 4 feet as
the winds relax. This brief respite in rougher conditions will
end on Wednesday and Thursday as another low pressure system moves
through the Gulf. Easterly winds will increase back to near
advisory levels in the offshore waters and seas will increase to 4
to 6 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  81  69  84 /  10  50  40  50
BTR  71  82  72  88 /  20  60  40  50
ASD  69  79  70  84 /  50  70  60  50
MSY  74  81  75  85 /  60  70  50  50
GPT  71  79  71  82 /  50  80  70  60
PQL  70  80  70  83 /  50  80  70  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ069-070-076-
     078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-555-557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ550-552-570-
     572.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ534-536-538-
     555-557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ552-570-572.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG