Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
770 FXUS64 KLIX 041127 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 527 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 949 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 Cool/quiet tonight as high pressure remains in control of the SE US. Clear skies/calm winds will continue to promote strong radiational cooling areawide. From the update earlier, went over verification vs guidance and the deterministic came in quite well yesterday morning, around/between the 50th and 75th percentile. Tonight, the deterministic is a bit warmer above the 75th and was nervous to follow this approach without taking into account hourly trends this evening. Had to play catchup again as we are cooling off fast, thus did drop MinT`s towards a blend of the 50th/75th with same attention to the Pearl River/Pascagoula drainage basins. Overall though, it (should) not be as cold as last night but still chilly regardless. Going into the day on Tuesday, guidance is comfortably in alignment and in high confidence that we`ll warm up into the mid 70`s areawide. No adjustments needed here. However, did massage dewpoints as forecast soundings indicate yet again an afternoon of strong PBL mixing. Verification yesterday fell far on the low side of guidance, between the 5th to 10th percentile. Careful on this approach, did aim towards that direction again this afternoon which brought mainly mid/lower 30 MinRH`s for the northern half of the CWA to some scattered upper 20`s across the Northshore, SW MS and interior coastal SE MS. This warming trend persists going into mid-week as moist, Gulf return flow steadily picks up. What this will do is uptick highs into the mid/upper 70`s Wednesday and increase dewpoints and get rid of the cold mornings. Additionally, as we see this increase in Gulf moisture, we`ll have to monitor the chance for patchy fog as we`re entering the time of year we need to watch the degree/intensity of return flow when surface highs drift east. NBM guidance is already hinting at 15-25% <3sm VIS probs both Wednesday and Thursday mornings, which appears meteorologically plausible within greatest deep corridor of sfc/low-level moisture transport to support an advection fog regime. This could extend beyond into late-week, but will monitor for that as we continue along the week. For now, introduced lower VIS and mention of patchy fog in the forecast with best/greatest confidence along and west of I-59 closer to the aforementioned best corridor of low-level moisture transport. Something to monitor. KLG && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 949 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 The trend of warmer temperatures continues late week underneath anomalously strong upper-level ridging. Safe to say we`ll reach the low to mid 80`s Friday and Saturday given this pattern/trend. For now, seeing some areas top out around 83-85 which is still several degrees from records, but around 8-12 degrees above normal. No adjustments needed here, and will continue to monitor patchy fog late week into early parts of the weekend. Next, we begin to see a transition in the upper-air pattern as the ridge retrogrades/builds west, with WNW to eventual NW upper- level flow settling in with deeper east-coast troughing. This sets the stage for 2, training shortwave impulses to ride in from the northern Rockies, SE into the mid MS valley region. Surface reflection of this first lead shortwave will be a cold front surging SE across the mid MS valley region east to the mid- Atlantic, but will struggle to make it this far south. However, residence of Gulf moisture advection and increasing WAA remaining in place coupled with diurnal heating will support building instability and will be enough to get isolated to scattered showers across the area Friday morning and afternoon. The lack of dynamic/frontogenetic ascent suggests most of this will be shallow and mainly showers, or perhaps "streamers" of showers along progressive southerly sfc/low-level flow. However, did go ahead and let the mention of thunder back in as the degree of surface heating could aid in around 1500-2000j/kg of SB CAPE, and perhaps support some isolated thunderstorms around. What`s left of the weak/subtle front slides through Saturday afternoon/evening, but it`s the second shortwave that surges a much stronger cold front across the area Sunday. By this time, the first front will rob all of the moisture meaning it`ll be primarily a dry front through here. The big story after this front will the the intense CAA and colder, continental air expected to plummet into the area supported by 1040mb+ high pressure diving in from southern Canada into the central/southern Plains. Not going to get too detailed with temps yet, but could potentially see the coldest air in the region so far this season. The deterministic NBM is likely not coming in cold enough for Monday and Tuesday mornings, with Monday being not as cold given persistent CAA and breezy winds, then the high settles in Tuesday morning providing the coldest morning. For now, deterministic guidance has the upper 30`s for southern MS, but would not be shocked to see these numbers come down over the coming days. Something to watch. KLG && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025 VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals for the whole period. Winds will generally be light and variable but will become slightly more easterly during the day before becoming more light and variable again at night. && .MARINE... Issued at 949 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 High pressure centered just to the north over the southern MS valley region will continue to promote NE to ENE winds across coastal waters today. Observations and short-range guidance indicate winds will remain elevated mainly for the 20-60nm Gulf zones this morning through about mid-morning at around 15-18kts, gusting to around 20kts and have extended the outer zone Exercise Caution headlines in response to around 9AM. Winds back down going into Tuesday and through mid/late week along with calm waves/seas. Next system/frontal boundary approaches the SE US Friday resulting in showers and a few thunderstorms Friday morning through Friday evening. KLG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 45 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 74 48 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 73 46 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 75 56 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 72 51 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 74 44 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KLG LONG TERM....KLG AVIATION...BL MARINE...KLG