Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
640 FXUS64 KLIX 051044 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 544 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 542 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 - Moisture will return to the area through the remainder of the week, which will allow isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop each afternoon. - Heat index values will gradually increase through the end of the week but are currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 A bit of a pattern change is upon us going into midweek. The upper low over the Tennessee River Valley will open up into a wave as an H5 shortwave kicker system moves downstream. This will allow heights to gradually increase across the region as an upper ridge continues to build eastward across Texas. At the surface, more low level moisture will begin to advect into the region from the tropics. With the gradual increase in low level moisture, POPs will begin to climb through the short term period, especially during the diurnal cycle. With the increase in low level moisture, heat index values will also be on the increase. At this juncture it appears feels like temperatures will be near advisory thresholds, but each afternoon fall a degree or two short so not expecting heat headlines for now. Further, with POPs increasing there will be some relief during the afternoon, especially this weekend when a rich plume of moisture with an easterly wave moves over the northern Gulf increasing the likelihood of diurnally driven afternoon convection. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 A fairly typical summertime pattern will be in place through the extended period. Broad troughing extending across the central and eastern CONUS will keep stronger upper-level ridging displaced west of the region, while the western periphery of the Bermuda ridge maintains generally south to southeast low-level flow across the central Gulf Coast. This will continue transporting deeper Gulf moisture into the area, with precipitable water values above 2 inches through much of the period. With no well-defined synoptic forcing expected, convection will primarily be driven by daytime heating and mesoscale boundaries. Showers and thunderstorms will initially develop over the coastal waters during the overnight and morning hours before transitioning inland along the sea breeze during the afternoon. Additional development will be possible along outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Scattered to numerous coverage is expected each day, generally favoring southern and coastal portions of the CWA early before spreading farther inland during peak heating. Weak steering flow through much of the column will favor slow-moving, pulse-type storms capable of producing frequent lightning, brief gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Convective coverage and placement will likely vary considerably from one location to another each day. Little meaningful change in the overall pattern is currently apparent Monday and Tuesday. The region should remain beneath weak flow aloft with ample moisture and only subtle forcing, allowing the daily marine and sea-breeze convective cycle to continue. Any weak perturbations embedded within the flow could locally enhance coverage, but confidence remains low regarding their timing and placement at this range. Temperatures will be near to slightly above early-August normals. Afternoon highs should generally reach the lower to mid 90s across inland areas, with upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the immediate coast. Earlier convective development may hold some locations several degrees cooler. Overnight lows will range from the lower to mid 70s inland to the upper 70s near the coast and tidal lakes. The combination of increasing humidity and temperatures in the 90s will produce afternoon heat index values generally in the 100 to 107 degree range. A few locations could briefly approach Heat Advisory criteria before convection develops, but widespread hazardous heat is not currently anticipated. (ME) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Convection will be possible this afternoon especially terminals along and south of I10/12. With the heavier activity expect brief reductions to MVFR. Coverage will be more scattered so should remain brief. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the cycle with generally light southerly winds. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Surface high-pressure axis over the southern Gulf will become absorbed by the Bermuda ridge as the week progresses. This will alter flow to more of a south to southeast direction Thursday through the weekend. Speeds should generally remain around 5 to 10 knots, although periods of 10 to 15 knots will be possible over the outer waters as the easterly fetch becomes better established late in the week. Seas will generally remain 1 to 2 feet through Thursday. The low-level pressure gradient may tighten slightly Friday into the weekend as surface high pressure becomes better established over the eastern Gulf while lower pressures persist over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. This should result in a more consistent south to southwest flow, generally around 10 to 15 knots which will support 2-3 ft seas. Increasing Gulf moisture will also bring a gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend and into early next week. Convection will be most common, in typical summertime fashion, over the coastal waters during the overnight and morning hours. Then activity shifts inland with the developing sea breeze during the afternoons. (ME) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...RDF MARINE...ME