186
FXUS64 KLIX 201034
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
534 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Generally dry and hot conditions will persist today, and for
  much of the week.

- Rain chances will be highest Monday into Tuesday, but rain
  amounts will generally be less than one half inch this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A weakening upper ridge was centered over east Texas during the
evening. A weak wave was noted over the eastern gulf, another
near Kansas City, and a stronger shortwave was over Wyoming. At
the surface, high pressure extended from the southern Appalachians
to east Texas. Some high cloud cover from a dissipating MCS over
Alabama has moved over the Mississippi coastal counties, otherwise
skies were mostly clear across the area with temperatures
generally in the 70s at midnight CDT.

The upper ridge won`t move a lot in the next 36 hours, but it will
weaken a bit more. The shortwaves to our northwest will be over
Arkansas and Nebraska at midday Monday. Any convection today is
likely to be rather isolated and limited to the Mississippi coast,
where an outflow boundary from last evening`s convection over
Alabama is likely to be located.

The Arkansas impulse will be close enough to the area to aid the
development of scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon and
evening, especially in coastal areas. That impulse will be east of
our area by Tuesday, with the upper ridge rebuilding over Texas
and western Louisiana Tuesday and Wednesday. The shortwave that
was over Wyoming during last evening will eventually move into the
Ohio Valley and deepen a trough along the Atlantic Coast. There
will still be enough residual moisture available for isolated to
scattered afternoon convection on Tuesday, and potentially even
Wednesday, but most areas should remain dry.

High temperatures are likely to be in the 90 to 95 range again
today, but dew points should still be low enough to keep the area
just below heat advisory criteria (108F). Tomorrow through
Wednesday probably won`t be much cooler, but the increased chances
for clouds and precipitation may be just enough to keep us away
from advisories as well. We`ll take it day by day. Overnight lows
will remain well above normal, probably not dropping below 70F in
most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The long term pattern has not been the most stable over the last
couple days, but does seem like it is starting to come together a
little better. Latest guidance continues to show a fairly dry
solution for mid to late this week, with only a few areas
potentially seeing PoPs ~15% at times. This comes as upper level
ridging begins to slide eastward across Texas on Tuesday, becoming
more centered over our area late in the week. That ridging pattern
looks to remain in place through the rest of the long term period,
though does look like it may start to break down just outside the
forecast period. On the temperature side of things, we are expecting
to keep the above average temperatures with each day seeing highs in
the low to mid 90s. Friday may begin to see a little bit of decrease
in the heat, but not by a whole lot. CPC shows pretty good percent
chances of above average temperatures sticking around over the next
couple weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Little changed from the previous forecast package. Generally VFR
conditions through the period. Will carry PROB30 for the afternoon
hours at KGPT, where an outflow boundary may exist, as well as the
sea breeze. That may be overstating the threat a bit, but not by
much. Other terminals near the coast have a non-zero threat of
convection, but not enough to justify carrying in the forecast.
Any storms that do develop should dissipate prior to sunset.

Threat for TSRA will be somewhat higher on Monday, mainly during
the afternoon. That will probably show up in the MSY 18z TAF and
in the 21/00z TAFs elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Benign marine conditions are expected today as a broad surface
ridge extending across the Southeast continues to settle southward
toward the northern Gulf Coast. As the ridge moves closer, the
pressure gradient will relax further and winds will remain
generally light, gradually becoming more onshore. Rain chances
remain very low today, with only isolated convection possible
near the Mississippi coastal waters. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage should increase somewhat Monday as moisture returns and
upper-level subsidence weakens. Any thunderstorm could produce
locally higher winds and seas, but widespread marine hazards are
not anticipated. Surface high pressure should remain close enough
to the northern Gulf Coast through much of the week to maintain a
relatively weak gradient. A somewhat more persistent northeast to
east flow may develop by the middle to latter part of the week as
high pressure builds to the north.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW