Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
037 FXUS64 KLIX 072039 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 339 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 337 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - Areas of fog possible overnight in areas that received heavy rainfall yesterday. - Isolated to scattered showers along coastal areas Wednesday. Dry/cooler conditions expected beyond midweek. - Hazardous marine conditions return late this week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 An upper level trough is currently moving east across the Great Lakes region with the base extending south to around Tennessee. A plume of higher atmospheric moisture content stretches from the north-central Gulf to around the apex of that trough. Locally, its a fairly sharp gradient from west to east of that higher theta-e and can see that same thing via radar imagery. Sea breeze boundaries will be focus for areas of convection but lack of large scale forcing will keep activity from becoming too strong. CAMs and global models are in good agreement that by around 00Z, showers will fizzle out. Fog potential will need to be monitored again tonight. MEFFER && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 After possibility of isolated coastal showers Wednesday, looking a generally dry and cooler forecast for the remainder of the forecast period. Northern trough digs a big farther south as it tracks into the western Atlantic Wednesday night. This will send a backdoor cold front through the CWA and into the northern Gulf where it will remain. Post frontal airmass brings highs down into the low/mid 80s and lows into the 60s. MEFFER && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Isolated to scattered showers will develop over the region through the afternoon hours. Recent radar and CAM trends suggest less than PROB30, so have removed those for latest TAFs. MVFR to VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the day before fog redevelops tomorrow morning. MEFFER && .MARINE... Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Weakening surface pressure gradient has allowed east to southeast winds to relax a bit to between 10 and 15 knots. Seas have also decreased to 2 to 4 feet. This will be brief as a backdoor cold front sliding in Wednesday will bring the the return of stronger winds and rougher sea state. A low then develops in the southern Gulf and gradually pushes to the west. Northeasterly winds will increase to near advisory levels in the offshore waters and seas will increase to 4 to 6 feet from Wednesday night through Friday and perhaps beyond. As for tidal lakes and nearshore waters, cautionary headlines are likely, but cannot rule out the need for Small Craft Advisories by Thursday or Friday. MEFFER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 87 65 83 / 10 10 0 0 BTR 71 90 68 87 / 10 10 0 0 ASD 69 88 67 86 / 10 10 0 0 MSY 74 90 73 88 / 10 10 0 0 GPT 71 87 68 86 / 10 10 0 0 PQL 69 88 67 86 / 10 10 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...ME MARINE...ME