Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
701 FXUS65 KLKN 160717 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1217 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A few strong thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada Sunday and Monday afternoons * Elevated fire weather conditions in Humboldt County Monday * Warming trend Sunday through Thursday && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of high pressure will remain over the Southeastern United States Sunday. Southerly flow should keep monsoonal moisture streaming northward into Eastern Nevada today, resulting in isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be erratic wind gusts near 50 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. There is a marginal risk (5-15%) of excessive rainfall in Southern White Pine and Eastern Nye Counties this afternoon into this evening. Heavy rainfall may result in flooding of recent burn scars. The setup is very similar on Monday with slightly better CAPE values (250-300 J/kg) over central NV. The moisture profile (0.60-0.80 inches) indicates a mix of more wet than dry storm activity. Brief heavy rains especially at higher elevations are possible through Monday evening. The aforementioned anticyclone aloft will progressive retrograde westward Sunday through Friday. As a result, the flow should shift from southerly to southwesterly, pushing monsoonal moisture eastward. There is an elevated risk of wildfires in Humboldt County Monday afternoon into Monday evening due to southwest wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 12 percent. A warming trend is expected Sunday through Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, high temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will be two to four degrees above normal for this time of year. High temperatures will remain above seasonal values Friday. Here are probabilities of maximum temperatures of 90 degrees or higher for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Thursday, August 20th, 2026: Battle Mountain - 96% Elko - 95% Winnemucca - 95% West Wendover - 95% Carlin - 95% Tonopah - 90% Wells - 90% Spring Creek - 85% Eureka - 85% Ely - 70% FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada Sunday afternoon and evening. Moderate forecast confidence regarding a warming trend Sunday through Thursday. Low forecast confidence in elevated fire weather conditions in Humboldt County Monday. Pops were increased and isolated thunderstorms were added to Wx Grids through 12Z Sunday as satellite & radar imagery depicted storms initiating and strengthening over Elko County. NBM grids had no shower or thunderstorm activity in that region. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of KEKO, KELY, and KENV this afternoon into this evening. Direct thunderstorm impact cannot be ruled out. && .FIRE WEATHER... A few strong thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada Sunday afternoon and evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be erratic wind gusts near 50 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Humboldt County Monday due to southwest wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 12 percent. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...87 FIRE WEATHER...87