Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
194 FXUS65 KLKN 160740 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1240 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1240 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025 * Near record heat in parts of Northern and Central Nevada both Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon * Moderate heat risk in the valleys of Southern Elko County Thursday afternoon * Strong, gusty winds Thursday and Friday * Dry weather will persist through at least Friday && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 1240 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An Eastern Pacific trough of low pressure will move eastward over Northern California today. Southwest to west winds will increase this afternoon ahead of this trough of low pressure. Wind gusts near 30 mph are expected this afternoon into this evening in parts of Northern and Central Nevada. This trough of low pressure will progress eastward across Northern Nevada tonight, before entering the Great Basin Tuesday. Atmospheric moisture associated with this trough of low pressure will be very limited, so no precipitation is anticipated. A ridge of high pressure will build northward over the Silver State Tuesday night. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft across Nevada on Wednesday as the region is wedged between a closed low centered off the British Columbia coast and high pressure over the desert southwest. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon rise by 7 to 10 degrees over Tuesday`s already above normal temperatures, with upper 80s to mid 90s. A dry frontal boundary associated with the low spinning off of BC will pass from NW to SE across Nevada Thursday afternoon. Temperatures trend a couple degrees warmer Thursday in many locations, with highs in the 90s, and even a couple lower elevation valleys reaching 100 degrees. Thursday night the low off of BC begins to track southeastward, opening into a trough as it passes through the Pacific NW Friday into Saturday, before centering over NV Saturday night. Temperatures over Nevada trend 5 to 8 degrees cooler on Friday with 80s for most locations. Much cooler over the weekend with highs dropping into the upper 60s and 70s each afternoon. Not much if any precipitation is expected with the passing trough this weekend, with only a 20% chance of showers across Northern Humboldt County on Saturday, and dry conditions continuing over the remainder of the CWA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding near record heat in portions of Northern and Central Nevada both Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon. High forecast confidence in dry weather persisting through at least Friday. Moderate forecast confidence regarding strong, gusty winds both Thursday and Friday. Moderate forecast confidence in much cooler temperatures next weekend. No deviations from the NBM output. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions forecast to be the primary flight conditions for all terminal sites through Tuesday evening. Winds will breezy out of the west at 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT possible. KTPH remains AMD NOT SKED due to communications issues with the ASOS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions expected in parts of Northern and Central Nevada from 11 AM PDT this morning until 10 PM PDT this evening due to southwest to west wind gusts near 30 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 4 percent. Near record heat anticipated in portions of Northern and Central Nevada both Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions expected throughout Northern and Central Nevada Thursday and Friday due to strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity values. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...87/96 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...87