Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
776 FXUS65 KLKN 281003 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 303 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 122 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025 * Marginal risk of excessive rainfall within much of the forecast area this afternoon * Showers and a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms Friday * Dry and fair weather this weekend && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Adequate sub-tropical moisture remains over the Great Basin today and scattered, mostly wet showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this afternoon. Hourly rainfall rates are still anticipated to be high enough under stronger showers and thunderstorms that localized moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible. WPC has issued a marginal excessive rainfall forecast for most of the forecast area today in accordance. The primary exception to the WPC forecast is Humboldt County. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts around 45 mph, cloud to ground lightning strikes, and small hail. Heavy rainfall as noted, may result in localized flash flooding, especially within recent burn scars and complex terrain. Showers and thunderstorms dissipate thru this evening but are again expected Friday. However, activity Friday will be isolated to scattered in nature and a mix of wet and dry across the forecast area. Great Basin continues to dry out as an upper level ridge begins to amplify. Dry and fair weather returns for the weekend though enough atmospheric moisture looks to remain present that afternoon cumulus are likely. Ridge continues to amplify early next week over the western U.S. with a gradual warming trend. Latest progs indicating that modest atmospheric moisture will begin to creep north again and into the forecast area as the ridge amplifies. Forecast for the first half of next week currently reflects this with the inclusion of afternoon cumulus buildups and isolated thunderstorms with dry storm modes as moisture profiles look marginal. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding rainfall thru Friday, though exact accumulations will be somewhat variable due to the showery nature of the rainfall. Numerical model solutions have come into better agreement within the last 24 hours regarding next week and uncertainty has diminished slightly. && .AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms are still expected near all sites though probabilities are much lower at KWMC and KBAM this afternoon and evening. MVFR or lower conditions still possible with thunderstorms but confidence remains too low for TAF inclusion. Prevailing winds look to stay below 10KT at all sites but thunderstorms may cause short lived gusty and erratic winds with gusts 40KT or more. && .FIRE WEATHER...Ample subtropical moisture will produce another day of showers and thunderstorms with mostly scattered coverage. Storm modes will be mostly wet across the forecast area this afternoon with activity dissipating thru this evening. Mostly dry conditions expected after midnight. Activity again present Friday afternoon with isolated to scattered coverage and a mix of wet and dry storms. Weather will be dry this weekend as a ridge of high pressure begins to amplify over the western U.S. Primary thunderstorm hazards will be the usual fare of erratic and strong outflow wind gusts around 45 mph, cloud to ground lightning strikes, and potentially small hail. In addition, moderate to heavy rainfall under stronger showers or storm cells may result in localized flash flooding across the area, and especially within recent burn scars where runoff is exacerbated and much less precipitaton is required to produce dangerous flash flooding or debris flows, including areas of complex terrain. Otherwise, gradient winds will be generally light and minimum afternoon RH will remain above the 15% threshold Thursday and Friday, moving into the teens this weekend. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...92