Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
969 FXUS65 KLKN 140928 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 228 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 133 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025 * Temperatures trend warmer through Tuesday, with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to low 100s * Heat Advisory in effect through 9 PM Tuesday * Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday * Fire Weather Watch has been issued for gusty winds and low humidity for Tuesday for fire weather zone 425 && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Monday) Issued at 133 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure builds over the Great Basin region today with temperatures trending warmer. Highs this afternoon will reach upper 90s to low 100s in most valley locations. Similar temperatures on Tuesday. A heat advisory remains in effect through Tuesday night. There is a 10 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening for areas north of the Interstate 80 corridor. Tuesday a trough passes through the inter-mountain west which will bring increased instability to much of Northern NV where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible (10 to 25% chance). Best chances for thunderstorms will be across eastern Elko County. While most of Northern Nevada will have breezy westerly winds on Tuesday, East-Central Nevada will have southwesterly winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. A weakened ridge remains over the region on Wednesday with temperatures a few degrees cooler. Precipitable water values rise across Central Nevada on Friday with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms to White Pine and Northern Nye Counties. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in well above normal temperatures today through Tuesday. Moderate confidence in isolated thunderstorms across portions of Northern Humboldt and Northern Elko Counties this afternoon and early evening. Moderate to high confidence in isolated to scattered thunderstorms in Elko County Tuesday. Deviations from the NBM continue today and Tuesday with respect to thunderstorm chances. Used a blend of 2 parts NBM and 1 part NBM90Pct for winds across East-Central Nevada Tuesday afternoon and early evening. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Monday night with no precipitation anticipated at this time. Monday afternoon diurnal breezes will be light except for KTPH where gusts of 20KTs are forecast until Monday evening. AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS sensor. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday afternoon a passing system to the north will initiate isolated dry thunderstorms along the northern NV border in zones 437/438/469/470 Monday afternoon and evening. Tuesday afternoon the dry thunderstorm threat expands to include zones 424/425/427/438/469/470. In addition to thunderstorms, strong southwesterly winds ranging 15-20 mph with gusts between 30-35 mph combined with afternoon RH values of 5-10% have prompted a Fire Weather Watch for zone 425 from 11AM until 10PM PDT Tuesday evening. The thunderstorm threat will continue through Wednesday afternoon for zones 425/426/427/469/470. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ030-033-036>038-040-041. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening NVZ425. && $$ DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...99