823
FXUS65 KLKN 111948
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1248 PM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1138 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

 * A slight chance for (5-10%) of severe thunderstorms in
   northeastern Elko County through this evening.

 * Elevated fire weather conditions in most of northern and central
   Nevada today due to gusty winds and low relative humidity
   values.

 * Dry weather with above normal temperatures today into the
   middle of next week.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1138 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A shortwave trough will amplify over the Pacific Northwest
through the remainder of the week. A shortwave perturbation is
currently moving across Oregon and Idaho ahead of this trough,
helping to focus the strongest convective coverage to our north
today. Low confidence (less than 20%) for a thunderstorm or two to
form south of the Nevada-Idaho state line with max CAPE of
200-300 J/kg in these areas. A few remnant outflow boundaries that
have worked southward into northern Elko County will likely
enhance lift but they are working against dry conditions. Highs
remain above normal once again today in the upper 80s and lower
90s.

SPC has far northeastern Elko County in a General Thunder Outlook
for Thursday with a few hi-res ensemble members forming convection
in the early afternoon here, with greatest chance for impacts
closest to the Idaho border. High temperatures slightly cooler in
the mid to upper 80s.

Otherwise, dry weather through this weekend as a dry cold front
cross southeastward across the Great Basin, which keep
temperatures only slightly above normal for mid-June in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

Watching a de-amplifying shortwave trough late Monday into
Tuesday next week, which is really our only next chance for
precipitation depending on the exact track and if the upper low
cuts off or not. For now, we keep broad southwest flow aloft,
which will mix down each afternoon with breezy conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

High confidence in above normal temperatures persisting through
the weekend and into next week as high pressure remains mostly in
control of our weather. Low confidence in the exact track and
amplitude in next week`s trough as it shifts into the interior
West. Around 15% of long range ensemble cluster members in a
stronger amplitude trough scenario would lead to our best chances
for measurable rainfall, which is still light at only a few
hundredths to a tenth of an inch.

&&


.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions through the TAF period with gusty west-southwest
winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts from 25 to 30 kt. Winds will shift to
the northwest after 03Z before turning mostly light and variable 4
to 8 kt. Winds will settle to the west-southwest once again
Thursday after 16Z from 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Westerly flow aloft will shift to the southwest into this weekend
with breezy to locally windy conditions each afternoon. This,
combined with afternoon min RH values in the single digits to as
low as 7 percent will create near-critical fire weather
conditions across portions of zones 437, 424, and 425. Confidence
in sustained winds and wind gusts is not high enough for a Fire
Weather Watch at this point.

&&


.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...84
AVIATION...84
FIRE WEATHER...84