743
FXUS63 KLMK 240611
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
211 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather continues through next Friday. Expect chilly nights
  and warm afternoons. Patchy fog will be possible each morning,
  mainly in river valleys.

* The next significant chance for widespread rainfall is not
  expected until the first few days of November (11/1-2).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

This Morning through the Weekend...

It is another clear and calm morning across the region as the
influence of broad sfc high pressure and upper level ridging
continues to bring quiescent weather across much of the eastern
CONUS. Typical ridge-valley and urban-rural differences in
temperatures are observed, with readings ranging from the upper 30s
to the low 50s at this hour. The main thing we`re watching through
mid morning will be the development of patchy fog in valleys and
near bodies of water where dewpoint depressions will be lowest.
Patchy frost also can`t be ruled out in the coldest spots; however,
coverage should be limited so no headlines are anticipated.

Outside of patchy valley fog development, no significant weather is
expected this weekend. Pleasant fall weather is expected to continue
as high pressure east of the Appalachians and upper ridging over the
Mississippi Valley continue to exert their influence, bringing mild
and dry conditions to central KY and southern IN. As the upper ridge
gets nudged slightly eastward through the weekend, marginal rises in
1000-850 mb thicknesses should support temperatures trending a
degree or so above persistence each day, with highs generally in the
low-to-mid 70s. Large diurnal temperature swings should also
continue, with temps dropping into the 40s in most areas each night.

Next Week through the end of October...

Blocking high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will keep mean
synoptic-scale troughing over the western CONUS through early next
week, with upper ridging and sfc high pressure continuing to support
dry weather across the region. A few shortwave disturbances may try
to eject along the top of the eastern US ridge; however, they should
be fairly moisture-starved and would be expected to bring little
more than a few extra clouds during the mid-week period. As a
result, dry weather is expected to persist through all of next week,
with recent global model guidance trending downward for rain chances
late next week. Temperatures should be relatively consistent from
day-to-day next week, and should be above average overall.

This extended stretch of rain-free weather will lead to increasing
precipitation deficits for both the month of October and
meteorological fall (since Sep 1st). Worsening drought conditions
are likely where they currently exist, and the spatial extent of
drought will likely increase over the coming 7-10 days.

The next chance of rain on the horizon arrives Halloween weekend,
though only about 20% of GEFS/EPS solutions show rain on Halloween.
Better chances for rain should hold off until the first few days of
November, when a stronger system may move across the Ohio Valley
(forecast confidence medium, stay tuned for more details next week).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Most of the upcoming forecast period will feature VFR conditions and
light and variable winds. There is still the potential for patchy
fog, particularly at HNB and also at BWG leading up to and shortly
after sunrise this morning. Have left mention out of the BWG
forecast given lower crossover temps than last night. Later today,
scattered high clouds should filter across the region, with winds
generally less than 7 kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CSG
AVIATION...CSG