481
FXUS63 KLMK 061138
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
638 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Areas of fog this morning.

* Record-breaking warmth possible today, with highs in the upper 70s
  to mid 80s.

* Strong to severe storms possible on Saturday, mainly from mid-
  morning through the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Scattered showers have been streaming northeast across southern IN
and north-central KY early this morning, along with a 25 kt
southwesterly LLJ. A couple very isolated storms will remain
possible through sunrise, though the lightning has been few and far
between overnight. This activity is forecast to lift off to the
northeast, largely clearing our northern counties by 7-8 AM. A humid
airmass with light winds has also led to patchy fog development
early this morning. Heavy cloud cover has prevented any significant
expansion of fog thus far. However, as clouds begin to thin from the
west and south through the early morning hours, areas of fog will be
possible.

Fog gradually dissipates after sunrise. Today continues to look very
warm in the warm sector of a developing Plains storm system. Expect
southerly breezes of 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph in the
afternoon. Temperatures are likely to surge into the upper 70s to
mid 80s this afternoon, which puts daily record highs in jeopardy at
all four of our primary climate sites (Louisville, Lexington,
Bowling Green, and Frankfort).

Mainly dry weather is expected today, though there is just a slight
chance (20%) for an isolated shower this evening. Dry weather is
likely to continue overnight, with widespread rain chances holding
off until Saturday morning when a cold front begins to approach from
the northwest. A steady south wind will make for a very mild night,
with lows only in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Saturday into Saturday night, multiple mid-level shortwave
disturbances are forecast to race east across the Midwest and Great
Lakes. Deep SW flow will be in place ahead of an approaching cold
front, which is forecast to push southeast through southern IN and
central KY later Saturday evening. This will maintain a moist warm
sector airmass Saturday morning, with sfc dewpoints likely in the
lower 60s. A line of deep convection will be ongoing Saturday
morning ahead of the cold front. A consensus of hi-res CAMs brings
this line into areas west of I-65 as early as mid to late morning
Saturday (reaching the I-65 corridor around midday). This does not
afford a large amount of time for the near sfc environment to heat
up and destabilize, so only modest destabilization is expected. 00Z
HREF features a 60+ percent chance of SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg, but
probabilities for 1000 J/kg are significantly lower.

Fcst soundings reveal a relatively tall, skinny CAPE profile but
favorable shear. Deep-layer shear is between 30-40 kts, with 0-1 km
SRH up to 150-200 m2/s2. The wind profile is largely unidirectional
(SW), with only slight curvature in the lowest 1km. Given the linear
storm mode, the primary hazard is isolated damaging winds. There is
a low, but non-zero, tornado risk.

The main line of strong convection should continue east through the
Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions Saturday afternoon before
clearing the CWA. Additional weaker convection will be possible back
along the synoptic cold front during the evening hours. These rain
chances linger into Saturday night as the front sags across KY. A
drying trend is expected by Sunday in the wake of the front, with
dry weather perhaps lingering into Monday.

However, the weather quickly turns active again by Monday night and
Tuesday. We`ll see robust moisture return via increasing SW low-
level flow ahead of another cold front. Waves of rainfall will be
possible through midweek, which may result in some flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Brief MVFR/IFR vis possible due to fog right around 12-13Z this
morning at BWG. Otherwise, fog seems too patchy and unlikely to
affect the other terminals. VFR through the rest of today with just
some SCT mid clouds. Southerly winds will steadily increase this
morning as low-level mixing develops. Gusts to 20-25 kts will be
possible during the afternoon hours.

A strengthening southwesterly LLJ ahead of a cold front will create
LLWS concerns late tonight into early Saturday morning. A band of
SHRA/TSRA ahead of the cold front will sweep west to east across the
area on Saturday between roughly 13-20Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW