417
FXUS63 KLMK 271731
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1231 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chilly but dry Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

* Next system Saturday night into Sunday brings an early onset of
  rain, snow or a mix before changing over to all rain.

* Slushy accumulation of a coating to possibly an inch for southern
  IN on Saturday.

* Monday into Tuesday has the potential of seeing snow or rain/snow
  across the region with some potential accumulations for parts of
  our area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

15Z surface analysis shows 993 mb low pressure centered over western
QC with a 1038 mb high nosing into the northern Plains from the
Canadian Prairies. Across the Ohio Valley, a relatively tight
pressure gradient is supporting breezy NW winds once again this
morning, with cross-isotherm flow in the sfc-850 mb layer indicating
continued CAA into the region. As is typical in these types of
regimes, a stratus deck has worked into southern IN this morning,
becoming more scattered as it crosses the Ohio River. Would expect
this stratus/stratocu field to pivot across the area through late
afternoon today, potentially limiting daytime heating along and
north of I-64.

The main change to the forecast at this time was to increase cloud
cover through this afternoon across the northern CWA and drop high
temps by a degree or two. Updated zones and other products have been
sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 358 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Trough axis will swing across the Ohio Valley this morning as sfc
high pressure to our west slowly builds in over the Ohio Valley
today into Friday. Upper trough will also slowly work eastward keep
us under northwest flow aloft today with slight ridging developing
on Friday. This will continue to advect in cold air from the north
and keeping temperatures 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of
year. With highs in the upper 30s/low 40s today and only the mid 30s
to low 40s on Friday. Lows Friday morning into Saturday morning will
also range between 10-15 degrees below normal in the low 20s with a
few locations dropping down into the teens across the Bluegrass.

Sfc pressure gradient will remain tight over the Ohio Valley for
today. Gusty, blustery westerly winds will be around in the
afternoon, gusts will be between 20-25 mph making it feel like it is
around 30 in the upper 20s. We will remain dry with mainly clear
skies into Friday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

A another system will take shape over the central Plains on Saturday
then work to the east-northeast through northern IN towards Lake
Erie by Sunday evening. Warmer air will advect in from the south
ahead of the approaching system pushing our temperatures into the
low/mid 40 Saturday afternoon and increasing clouds due to
isentropic lifting. Precipitation will spread from the west-
northwest to the east during the day Saturday. Initially,
precipitation could fall as a wintry mix of rain/snow due to
lingering cold air at the surface early on Saturday. Still some
discrepancy in the forecast models when it comes to any accumulating
snow. Current thinking is with a warm ground and temperatures
warming to above freezing as the precipitation arrives, most will
see rain with any slushy accumulations of a coating to near an inch
will be over southern IN, with higher amounts as you work northward
into central IN. All of the precipitation should transition over to
all rain by late in the day into Saturday night and into Sunday.
Most of the precipitation should be out of the CWA by Sunday
evening.

Surface high will build in behind the departing system and a cold
front Sunday night into Monday. Another round of colder air will
work into the area with lows in the mid 20s Monday morning and highs
in the mid/upper 30s on Monday with mainly dry conditions during the
day.

The next impactful system looks to arrive Monday night into Tuesday
with better chances of most of the area seeing some snow. The
challenge in the deterministic models is how much moisture will be
available and how strong will this system be as it develops over the
western Gulf Monday and then and then slides over the southeast US
Monday night into Tuesday. Right now the GFS is the most bullish
with its 00z run bring the most moisture and potentially higher snow
amounts while the EURO is keeping most of the moisture on the
southern and eastern side of the system.

Weather turns drier but remains chilly from Wednesday into Thursday
with highs in the low/mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Stratus/stratocu field with cloud bases around 3 kft has overspread
HNB/SDF/LEX/RGA this morning and will push toward BWG over the next
few hours. While CIGs briefly dropped to MVFR levels, they appear to
have stabilized just above 3 kft, so will carry a VFR forecast
through this afternoon. W/NW winds, with occasional gusts to 20 kt,
will continue this afternoon before settling just before sunset.
Stratus should begin to scatter later today, though additional waves
of stratus may try to swing through late tonight into tomorrow
morning. As a result, there is a low confidence chance for
additional MVFR CIGs at SDF/LEX/RGA/HNB after 28/08Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and lighter west winds are expected by the end of the
current forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...CSG