523
FXUS63 KLMK 091748
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1248 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Windy conditions are expected through Wednesday, with widespread
  wind gusts of 25-35 mph and isolated gusts to 40 mph likely.

* A cold front will bring rain to the region tonight before a
  separate system bring light snow Thursday night into Friday
  morning.

* Cold temperatures are likely this weekend, but forecast
  temperatures have trended less cold.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Across central KY and southern IN this morning, we`ve had a mix of
sun and mid-level clouds, with the main area of cloud cover now
beginning to push off to the east of the area at this hour. An
approaching low pressure system over the northern Plains has
strengthened the pressure gradient across the Ohio Valley, with
winds picking up out of the south and southwest this morning. As we
start to see more widespread sunshine over the next few hours,
temperatures will surge up into the 40s across the area, setting the
stage for a pleasant, albeit blustery afternoon. Winds will continue
to increase this afternoon, with widespread gusts of 20 to 30 mph
expected.

The previous forecast is on track at this time. Only made minor
adjustments to the wind and temperature forecasts through the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 419 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Today, the surface high now sits east of Kentucky with a surface low
over the western Great Lakes, producing a tight pressure gradient
over the Lower Ohio Valley. This will continue increasing winds
through the morning before gusting to around 25-30 mph. Even with
some high level cloud cover passing to the southeast overhead, high
temperatures will quickly warm into the 40s.

Tonight, a shortwave within the upper trough, sitting over the
eastern half of the country, will dive straight for southern Indiana
and central Kentucky. On the eastern side of the shortwave a surface
low will get pushed from the Midwest to the Indiana/Michigan border
while dragging a cold front just ahead of the shortwave. The front
is expected to arrive in the CWA late Wednesday morning, but rain
ahead of the front is expected to make it`s way into our southern
Indiana counties shortly after midnight and continue southeast
across the CWA. The bulk of the rain is expected to come to an end
by the early afternoon, but some light precipitation on the back
side of the system could linger into the Wednesday night.

With the low`s position northeast of the area, the highest expected
rainfall amounts will be over the northeastern part of the CWA where
around 0.25" is expected. Amounts will taper off to the southwest,
to around a trace near Bowling Green. By the time precipitation
changes over to snow, only a few flurries are expected.

With WAA advection remaining strong ahead of the front`s arrival
Wednesday morning, Tuesday night`s lows are expected to only fall
into the mid to upper 30s, but strong southwest winds are expected
to quickly lift Wednesday highs into the mid 40s to low 50s before
the cold front arrives. The cold front will bring CAA and drop
Wednesday night`s lows into the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 419 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Model agreement is looking better for the rest of the week.

Thursday, surface high pressure extends up the Mississippi Valley
into the Ohio Valley behind the exiting cold front. There will
likely be clouds overhead, but the day looks dry with winds slowly
backing from the northwest to the southwest, ending CAA. Highs are
expected to remain cool in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Thursday night into Friday, northwest flow will bring its next slug
of moisture to southern Indiana and central Kentucky ahead of a
developing surface low. The current track has the main body of
precipitation going through southeastern Indiana and northern
Kentucky. With its current expected track a dusting to around 0.25"
is expected northeast of a line from Lexington to Jeffersonville,
Indiana, but a few isolated spots could see around a half of in
inch. Being a couple days away, this could change, but with lows in
the mid to upper 20s, snow is a safe bet.

This weekend is still shaping up to be fairly cool, but the last two
days have showed warmer temperatures in the data than a few days
ago. Still, CAA will drop high temperatures on Sunday into the low
20s to mid 30s with lows Saturday and Sunday night in the low teens
to low 20s, but now there is good agreement (at least for today) in
a system arriving Saturday night. This system like last weeks that
brought our larger snow has two parts. Moisture and cool
temperatures dropping in from the northwest and Gulf moisture
flowing up the Mississippi Valley into our area. Lets see if the
cool forecast holds or the warming trend continues as temperatures
are going to matter to see what kind of precipitation we get.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected through most of the current forecast
period, though ceilings should gradually drop tonight into tomorrow
morning. The main impacts to operations should be due to gusty S/SW
winds and LLWS tonight as a strong low pressure system moves to the
north of the region. Confidence in wind gusts is a bit lower
overnight as there are uncertainties with how much mixing will be
able to occur. Scattered rain showers will be possible, mainly after
06Z tonight, though impacts from these showers should be relatively
minor. By Wednesday morning, a cold front will move through the
region, causing winds to veer from S/SW to W/NW. Wind gusts of 30 kt
are possible Wednesday morning, especially at SDF, LEX, and RGA.
Ceilings may also drop to MVFR levels by the end of the forecast
period; however, confidence in this is still moderate.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...CSG