432
FXUS63 KLMK 101342
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
842 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Today, widespread wind gusts of 35-40 mph are expected.

* Today, a cold front is bringing rain to the region. Rain will
  transition to scattered snow showers and flurries tonight.

* A more significant wintry system is possible Thursday night into
  Friday morning, which could bring accumulating snowfall to
  portions of north central KY and southern IN.

* Another shot of colder air arrives this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

This morning, ~989 mb sfc low pressure is moving across the LP of
Michigan, with a tight north-south oriented pressure gradient
leading to gusty southwest winds across the Ohio Valley. A couple
bands of rain showers have developed within a series of pre-frontal
troughs extending across Indiana and Kentucky, with the main cold
front still hanging out just to the NW of the Wabash Valley at this
hour. The core of the 60+ kt LLJ is now pushing into southeast KY,
with wind gusts generally in the 25-35 mph range at this hour.

For the rest of the morning hours, we`re expecting additional waves
of light to moderate rain to move across southern IN and northern
KY, with less rain expected across southern KY where the cold front
forcing is weaker and there is less available moisture. Total
rainfall amounts of 0.10-0.25" still look like a pretty good bet,
especially along and north of I-64. While the winds aloft will be
gradually weakening later today, more favorable mixing via
steepening llvl lapse rates should allow for 30-40 mph wind gusts
through the day, especially immediately following midday cold FROPA.

Only made minor updates to PoPs for today and tonight, and increased
the mention of flurries/sprinkles this afternoon through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 429 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Today, a surface low over the LP of Michigan, in the center of an
upper trough, will get carried northeast towards western New York by
the eastern side of the trough. West of the low, a surging shortwave
along with the low`s cold front will drop southeast and through the
Lower Ohio Valley. The front is expected to arrive in the CWA around
midday, but rain ahead of the front is already beginning to make its
way into our southern Indiana counties early this morning. This line
of showers will increase in intensity over the next few hours and
continue southeast over the CWA. The bulk of the rain is expected to
come to an end by this evening as showers exit the Bluegrass and
Lake Cumberland regions into eastern Kentucky, but some light
precipitation on the back side of the system could linger into the
tonight as it transitions to snow and/or a mix of rain and snow
early tonight.

The highest expected rainfall amounts are going to be over the
northeastern part of the CWA where around 0.25" is expected. Amounts
will taper off to the southwest, to maybe a couple hundreths near
Bowling Green. By the time precipitation changes over to snow, only
a few flurries to a dusting are expected.

Winds are going to remain gusty today as a tight pressure gradient
around the storm moves over the Lower Ohio Valley. Winds are
expected to gust to around 35-40 mph first with southwest winds this
morning. Then, we could get another gusty period as the front
arrives with northwest winds. Early WAA is expected to lift
temperatures into the 40s before CAA drops lows into the 20s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 429 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Thursday, surface high pressure extends up the Mississippi Valley
into the Ohio Valley behind the exiting cold front. Cloud cover from
the departing system are expected to keep skies mostly cloudy, but
we remain dry. As the high to the south passes off to the east,
winds slowly back from the northwest to the south by Thursday night,
ending CAA. This will be a little too late to help temperatures as
highs only make it into the 30s.

Thursday night into Friday, northwest flow will bring a clipper
system through Missouri into Kentucky. All the moisture with the
system will be on the northeast side of the surface low. The track
could change, but a lot of consensus has the axis of the moisture
running straight through south-central Indiana and through the
Bluegrass and northern Kentucky. Snow totals have been trending up
with areas near Jefferson County, Indiana towards Harrison County,
Kentucky in the 2-4" range with lower totals tapering off to the
southwest with Louisville and Lexington in the 1-2" range. We are
expected to to fall into the mid to upper 20s in areas that see most
of the precipitation during the first half of the night, but WAA
ahead of the low bringing the precipitation will begin to warm
temperatures after midnight. This could lead to a change over to
rain Friday morning.

This weekend, still expecting to see a blast of cooler temperatures
with highs on Sunday only reaching into the upper teens across parts
of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Temperatures are expected
to be closer to 30 across southern Kentucky, but lows Saturday and
Sunday night could reach into the single digits and teens. All of
this is dependent on northwest flow remaining in place with multiple
surface highs keeping CAA in place. Temperatures have been a little
flip floppy the last couple of day. It should be cool. There is some
room in how cold.

Saturday night, the global models keep good agreement between them,
but the overall set-up has changed. Now, instead of a system with a
northwest component and a southern Gulf component. The latest
solutions have just the northern component, acting like another
clipper type system, and with it being farther northeast of our
area, it may have limited impacts on us.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Ahead of an approaching cold front, tight pressure gradients will
cause gusty winds. Remaining LLWS is expected to last for a couple
more hours at BWG and RGA. Winds will continue slowly veering from
the southwest towards the northwest through the period. Gusts from
20-30 knots are expected over southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Rain will continue moving southeast over the region. The heaviest
showers are expected to end by this afternoon with low chances of
precipitation remaining into the night. The remaining precipitation
tonight will likely change over to light snow or a mix.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW