646
FXUS63 KLMK 300714
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
314 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry conditions continue with increasing temperatures into the
  mid 80s today.

* A stronger southwest flow is expected on Thursday which will allow
  temperatures to warm into the mid-upper 80s with a few spots
  touching 90 once again.

* Slow moving cold front will bring widespread rain showers to the
  region late Thursday through Friday night. Showers may continue
  across southern KY on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Wednesday through Thursday...

The center of the surface high pressure has moved east of the
forecast area bringing return flow back to the region. This is
bringing warmer temperatures and moisture into the Ohio Valley.
Daytime temperatures will continue to increase over the next couple
days, with todays highs in the mid to upper 80s. The Bowling Green
area has the best chance of warming to 90 degrees briefly today.
Cloud cover that is currently moving in from the west could limit
some daytime heating preventing highs from reaching near 90.
Nighttime lows will cool into the mid and upper 60s tonight as skies
become mostly clear. As upper level ridging holds on over the region
for Thursday, temperatures will continue to increase with the strong
southwesterly flow. Max temperatures will warm into the upper 80s
with a some areas of low 90s.

Thursday Night through Early Next Week...

By Thursday night, a cold front will be approaching the area from
the northwest. In combination with the ample moisture advection,
widespread rain showers are expected to develop ahead of the
boundary and move through the Ohio Valley. Showers will likely start
late Thursday/early Friday and linger through majority of the day on
Friday. Severe threat with this system is low as instability will be
limited by the lack of heating at that point. Additionally, wind
shear values are marginal ahead of the frontal boundary. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible across the area as PWATs are
expected to be aorund 2 inches. QPF values are ranging 0.5"
- 1.5" with the higher amounts in south central KY. As the cold
front pushes through on Friday, maximum temperature will take a dive
back into the 70s. Depending of the position of the boundary during
peak heating on Friday, the southern part of the CWA may still reach
the low to mid 80s.

Recent guidance has shown a drier trend for the weekend rather than
lingering rain showers. However, there is still potential for
showers on Saturday depending on how fast, or slow, the cold front
moves through the area. The 00z GFS guidance is showing rain showers
out by late Friday, while the euro has training showers along the
KY/TN border. Conditions for the weekend look pleasant otherwise
with maximum temperatures in the mid to low 70s. Nighttime
temperatures will cool into the mid 50s on Saturday, and may dip
into the upper 40s on Sunday with some clearing skies.

Post frontal boundary an area of high pressure will build back into
the region. Therefore, northeasterly flow returns with drier air
being advected into the Ohio Valley. This will keep temperatures in
the 70s for the beginning of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Winds will shift from SE to SW by Wednesday afternoon with a steady
increase (and low gusts) during daytime mixing. High level clouds
will continue to move through the area bringing SCT to BKN skies.
Towards the end of the forecast period, winds will become
lighter and more southerly.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CAL
AVIATION...CAL