644
FXUS63 KLMK 241130
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
630 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dense fog until mid/late morning. Use caution during the morning
  commute and use low-beam lights.

* Dry and mostly cloudy today.

* Widespread light to moderate rain showers tonight and Tuesday.
  Storms will be possible in the morning. Could see a few stronger
  storms over the southeastern portion of the region in the
  afternoon.

* Much cooler and drier air arrives for Thanksgiving and Black
  Friday.

* The weekend continues to look unsettled with precip chances. Might
  see a mix of rain/snow on Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Moisture trapped beneath a stout inversion has allowed for dense fog
to blanket the region this morning. This fog, similar to yesterday,
is quite thick and will take some time to mix out once the sun
rises. Wouldn`t expect thinning low stratus until about 15-17Z
today. Raised low temperatures for this morning, given the extent of
the low stratus/fog. Areas over the bluegrass were able to fall into
the mid 30s, but elsewhere is in the low-mid 40s.

High pressure will continue to push off to the east and winds will
veer to the southeast today. Aloft, troughing will move into the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Ridging will move over the region and help to
increase temperatures and WAA today. Looking to see highs in the mid-
to-upper 50s and low 60s today. A bit lower than most guidance,
given the extent of the low stratus. Most of today will remain dry,
though precip will begin to move in from the west towards sunset.

Overnight, a 45-50kt LLJ will build into the region and usher in
better moisture. PWATs will increase to about 1.25 inches, which is
about the 90-95th percentile of climatology. Isentropic lift will
allow for light to moderate widespread rain to fall through the
overnight hours. As the warm front moves through around sunrise, we
could hear a few rumbles of thunder with elevated instability.

On Tuesday, the main axis of the slightly negatively tilted trough
and the surface cold front will push through in the afternoon and
into the evening. Additionally, divergence zones of a mid and upper
level jet will continue to support deep lift to present moisture.
Looking at forecast soundings we will likely see a few hundred
joules of SBCAPE and ample deep layer shear, which could help to
bring some stronger storms over the far southern and southeastern
portions of the region along the cold front. Not expecting
widespread severe weather, but a few strong storms could produce
small hail, heavy rain, and possibly a quick, weak spin-up tornado.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Tuesday Night - Friday...

A closed low will push into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes,
dragging a surface cold front closely behind Tuesday`s cold front.
Looks to have limited moisture along the front, though a few light
showers may be possible over the northeastern areas. This cold front
will move through on Wednesday, bringing much cooler air. On
Wednesday, a tightening pressure gradient and a 45-50kt LLJ will
bring breezy westerly winds. Will likely see wind gusts up to 30mph.


High pressure will build into the region on Thursday, bringing dry
conditions for the holidays. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday
will be in the upper 30s and low 40s for highs and 20s for lows.
Friday morning will be the chilliest morning with lows in the upper
teens and low 20s.


Weekend...

Flow aloft will become southwesterly as deep troughing sets up over
the western CONUS. A continuous stream of vorticity into the Ohio
Valley will help to keep precip chances through the weekend. Still a
lot of uncertainty, given marginal temperatures, though we could see
a rain/snow mix on Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Dense fog has blanketed the region this morning. Visibility is down
to a quarter mile nearly everywhere and will remain through sunrise.
Similar to yesterday, it will take a little while for fog this thick
to thin and lift. Wouldn`t expect VFR conditions until 15-16Z. After
fog thins, BKN-OVC upper skies will move in ahead of some precip
chances that will enter the region from the west after sunset. Rain
will become widespread early Tuesday morning. We may see a few
storms Tuesday morning around sunrise. Winds will remain light and
mostly out of the SE today and tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning
     for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning
     for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW