951
FXUS63 KLMK 291854
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
254 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Pleasant and dry weather continues through Wednesday with daytime
  highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

* A stronger southwest flow is expected on Thursday which will allow
  temperatures to warm into the mid-upper 80s with a few spots
  touching 90 once again.

* Slow moving cold front will bring widespread rain showers to the
  region Thursday night through Friday night.  Showers may continue
  across southern KY on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Now through Wednesday Night...

Afternoon observations reveal mostly sunny skies across the region
with temperatures in the upper 70s.  A few 80 degree readings were
noted in the I-65 corridor and points west.  No significant weather
is expected through the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening hours.  Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 70s to the
lower 80s.  Upper ridging and surface high pressure will continue to
strongly control our weather overnight.  Mostly clear skies and light
southeast winds are expected.  We could see some valley fog with
overnight lows in the mid-upper 50s.

Upper level ridging will hold sway across the southeastern US on
Wednesday.  We may have some very high cirrus streaming across
western portions of the region.  A surface area of high pressure
will be located to our east and we`ll have a south to southwest flow
in the region.  This should allow temperatures to warm up a bit more
over what we saw on Tuesday.  Highs of 80-85 are expected across our
northeast areas, but we`ll see mid-upper 80s in the I-65 corridor.
Upper 80s will be possible across our far southwest (Bowling Green)
area.  Latest HREF probabilities of 90 degrees are pretty low across
our region (<10%) and more likely to be seen in area west of I-165.
Dry weather will continue Wednesday night with lows in the 60-65
degree range.

Thursday through Monday...

Upper ridge axis looks to hold on strong for Thursday with a
continued southwest flow at the surface.  Under partly to mostly
sunny skies, we`ll see temperatures flex into the upper 80s.  Best
chances of hitting 90, look to be west of I-65 where the NBM blend
probabilities stand at greater than 60 percent, with 80-90% at
Bowling Green.  90s still seem unlikely over at Lexington as the
blend only gives about a 30% probability of exceeding 90.  However,
in deep southwest/warm advection cases, the models usually are too
cool with highs.

By Thursday night, a slow moving upper level trough axis and surface
cold front will slowly push into the region from the west.
Widespread showers are likely after midnight Thursday night and will
continue into the day on Friday as the frontal boundary slowly
pushes through the region.  Looking at model proximity soundings,
the widespread cloudiness and ongoing precipitation will likely
limit our instability.  Wind shear values are also weak below 8km.
Lapse rates are not all that steep in the low-mid levels, so it may
be hard to even get some lightning out of the activity.  The model
soundings do have plentiful moisture as PWATs are up over 2 inches.
So locally heavy rainfall will be possible across the region.
However, the recent stretch of dry weather across much of the CWA
should preclude any hydro issues.  Highs on Friday look to feature a
gradient with the front in the area.  Highs may struggle to get into
the low-mid 70s in areas north of the Ohio River, with low-mid 80s
across much of Kentucky.

Latest 12Z guidance looks a bit more optimistic for drier conditions
on Saturday as the models are a little faster with pushing the front
south of the region.  29/13Z Blend is probably too high here as the
00/06Z were slower, so I expect that we`ll trend down PoPs in later
forecasts.  For now, the best chances of any residual rain showers
looks confined to mainly southern KY for Saturday and into the day
on Sunday.  Highs on Saturday will feature a gradient as well with
upper 60s to around 70 in southern Indiana and far northern
Kentucky.  Lower 70s are expected in areas south of the WK/BG
Parkway.  Similar readings are expected on Sunday with highs just a
few degrees either side of 70.  Lows through the period will be
in the low-mid 50s.

Drier and much cooler air will arrive for Monday with highs likely
topping out in the upper 60s over much of the region.  A few
readings near 70 will be possible down along the KY/TN border.  Lows
Monday night will be the coolest of the forecast period with lows in
the upper 30s to the lower 40s in the north with mid 40s in the
south.  Depending on cloud cover and wind forecasts, some patchy
frost could be possible in our northern and most protected areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the upcoming TAF period.  Sunny
skies and light winds will be seen at the terminals this afternoon
and evening.  We`ll start to see winds shift to the southeast this
evening with perhaps some thin cirrus overspreading the western
sites (BWG/HNB/SDF) late tonight.  The outlook for Wednesday calls
for continued VFR conditions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION.....MJ