888
FXUS63 KLMK 141150
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
650 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mostly dry and mild through Saturday.

* Brief light rain showers possible Saturday night, mainly east of I-
  65.

* Cool and dry Sunday and Monday behind the passage of a cold front.

* Rain likely returns to the region Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 358 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Conditions are quiet and cool early this morning, with mostly clear
skies and light winds. We are again seeing fairly large ridge-valley
temperature splits this morning. Rural, sheltered spots with calm
winds have been able to fall into the low to mid 30s, while other
more exposed sites are in the low to mid 40s. Sfc high pressure will
continue to slip off to the east this morning. As a light, steady
south wind gets established closer to dawn, the temperature
differences will likely decrease. Expect a cool, dry start to the
day.

High pressure will drift south over the Southeast today while a
strong low pressure system moves across central Canada. Increasing
SW flow in the lower levels will produce warm, moist air advection.
This will help saturate a narrow layer around 6-7 kft later this
morning, and we`re already seeing expanding cloud cover across
portions of IL/IN early this morning. Expect partly cloudy
conditions beyond mid-morning today. It won`t go completely overcast
though, and stronger SW breezes will help boost temperatures this
afternoon. Look for SW winds of 10-15 mph with highs in the mid 60s
to lower 70s.

The southwesterly LLJ continues to increase to 25-30 kts tonight
ahead of a cold front cutting through the Upper Midwest. Skies will
be mostly clear early in the night, with increasing cloud cover
Saturday morning. It will be mild, with lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Saturday will be the warmest day over the next week. Robust SW flow
WAA continues ahead of a quickly approaching cold front. A deepening
low pressure system is forecast to spin southeast across Ontario,
dragging a cold front through southern IN and central KY Saturday
night. Saturday looks warm and breezy, with partly to mostly cloudy
skies. Even with a bit more cloud cover, temperatures will top out
in the low to mid 70s.

Stronger large scale forcing and deeper moisture will overlap over
the Northeast. When the cold front sweeps through here Saturday
night, it won`t have a whole lot of moisture to work with. Brief
light rain showers will be possible east of I-65, and more likely
east of I-75.

We transition quickly back to NW flow CAA for Sunday. Skies should
clear out, but highs will be back in the mid/upper 50s in southern
IN and north-central KY. Low 60s look likely across south-central
KY. Ridging builds in from the west Sunday into Monday, and this
period looks cool and dry. On Monday, expect lows in the 30s with
highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

A dampening upper level wave streaming ENE across the Rockies and
central Plains will induce weak sfc low development over the Plains
by Monday. By Monday night, a warm front is forecast to extend east
through the Lower OH Valley. WAA and moist upglide is likely to lead
to rain showers for Monday night into Tuesday. There could be a
small chance for thunder as well, at least across southern KY.

As the Tuesday wave exits the area, rain chances diminish Tuesday
night into Wednesday. It`s tricky to go with a completely dry
forecast, however, due to increased model spread by this time. In
general, the midweek period could end up drier. Upper level ridging
may start to amplify over the region in response to a deep upper
level trough over Mexico and the southern CONUS. With the trough
likely ejecting northeast at some point toward the Ohio Valley, this
would increase rain and thunderstorm chances toward the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions expected. Light southerly winds are beginning to
increase. Winds will continue to veer SSW late morning and this
afternoon while increasing to 10-15 kts.

SCT-BKN mid-level clouds will move across the region from west to
east after 12Z today. Skies will go mostly clear once again by this
evening. SSW winds will diminish slightly this evening but increase
once again early Saturday due to a tightening pressure gradient and
increasing low-level jet. Could have some marginal LLWS concerns
early Saturday morning as LLJ winds increase to 35-40 kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW