439
FXUS63 KLMK 011108
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
608 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cloudy skies with scattered rain showers are expected today and
  into tonight.

* Short period of dry weather expected for Monday and Tuesday with
  mild/breezy conditions.

* Unsettled weather returns by late Tuesday and Wednesday as the
  next weather system moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Now through Tuesday...

Current sat/obs show cloudy skies across the region with
temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Antecedent
dry atmosphere will continue to take some time to moisten from top
to bottom.  Saturation has already occurred out across far western
Kentucky where a few light rain showers were observed.  For the
remainder of the overnight period, we`ll see cloudy skies continue
with scattered sprinkles mainly west of the I-65 corridor.  As a
weak LLJ starts to develop, combination of isentropic lift and
synoptic scale lift from an approaching shortwave trough axis should
result in an increase in rain showers, in the I-65 corridor and
points west.

For today, aforementioned shortwave trough axis will lift
northeastward across the region.  A weak LLJ will gradually
translate eastward through the day.  Low-level dry air will likely
hold on during the morning and will limit overall areal coverage of
rain showers.  However, top-down moistening will occur and light
rain showers are expected across the region this afternoon and into
this evening before the shortwave trough pulls northeast of the
region.  Rainfall totals will likely be in some sort of gradient
with a tenth of an inch or less across southern Indiana and into the
Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.  Rainfall amounts of a quarter
to perhaps a half inch will be possible across our southwest areas.
Clouds will keep daytime highs a bit cooler today with lower 60s
expected across the southwest areas, elsewhere highs in the mid-
upper 60s are expected.  Lows tonight will cool back into the upper
40s/lower 50s.

For Monday/Tuesday, short duration ridging will build across the
area ahead of a deepening trough axis in the Plains.  A warm
southwest flow will be seen across the region with highs on Monday
warming into the upper 60s/lower 70s over southern IN and into the
Bluegrass region.  Lower 70s are expected in the I-65 corridor and
down into the Bowling Green area.  Lows Monday night will be in the
lower 50s in the I-75 corridor and in the mid-upper 50s elsewhere.
Dry/milder/breezy conditions are expected on Tuesday with highs
warming into the upper 70s.  Would not be surprised to see a few low
80s in spots given the strong warm advective scheme that will be in
place.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...

By Tuesday night, a large closed upper level low is forecast to be
over the upper Midwest with a large trough axis extending southward
along the MS River.  A north-south oriented cold front will move
into western KY late Tuesday evening and will cross through central
KY Wednesday morning.  Ahead of the front a line of showers and
perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms.  The main trend in tonight`s
guidance is a faster progression of the front through the region on
Wednesday and much drier forecast for Thursday.  By Friday a
secondary upper level wave will move through the region bringing
another round of rain showers to the region.  A third upper level
wave looks to enter the region by Sunday and will bring another
round of showers to the area.  Total rainfall with these systems
will be on the order of 1-2 inches with some localized 3+ inch
amounts.  Highs Wed/Thu will be in the upper 60s to around 70 with
overnight lows in the 50s. Cooler temps are expected on Fri/Sat with
readings in the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Conditions will likely remain VFR through the day.  An area of light
rain showers over western TN/KY will move northeastward and expand
in area later this morning.  Initially, dry air in the lowest levels
will keep a lot of the precipitation from reaching the ground until
we saturate from top to bottom.  KHNB/KBWG will see this saturation
take place first, but KSDF may not see measurable rainfall until
later this afternoon. KLEX/KRGA look to remain dry through the
daytime hours.  Surface winds will remain out of the southeast at 5-
8kts. For tonight, cigs will likely lower into the MVFR range with
drizzle and light rain continuing.  There is a pretty strong signal
for KHNB to drop to IFR cigs later this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION.....MJ