611
FXUS63 KLMK 111941
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
241 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warming trend begins today with breezy southwest winds this
  afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours.

* Widespread showers and possibly some thunderstorms will come late
  in the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Weak troughing and moisture is moving just north of the region
today, bringing mid-level clouds and virga. Since there is such a
dry layer near the surface, it is preventing precipitation from
making it to the surface. It is possible that someone may see a
sprinkle or two, but should all remain as virga this afternoon.
Additionally, a 45-50kt LLJ is pushing into the region from the west
and afternoon mixing is helping to bring gusty winds up to 30mph
down to the surface.

These conditions will continue until sunset, where a nocturnal
inversion will allow wind gusts to relax. Not expecting the
atmosphere to remain mixed overnight, where the LLJ winds could
transfer to the surface. Though, the inversion does not look as
strong over the Bluegrass, so wind gusts may remain overnight.
Clouds will move east of the region during the first half of the
night, keeping the rest of the night clear. Low temperatures are
expected to be in the low to mid 30s.

On Wednesday, we will begin a warming trend where high temperatures
will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. High pressure to the south and
quiet northwesterly flow will keep our skies clear and winds breezy
up to 20mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

=====Wednesday Night through Friday Night=====

We will remain under quiet northwesterly flow and surface high
pressure through the end of the work week. Temperatures will
continue to warm each day into the upper 60s by the weekend. Should
be a pleasant week.

On Friday morning, a weak vort lobe and LLJ will move into the
region and bring a small chance for some light showers west of I-65.
Though trends have decreased over the last several forecast periods,
given shallow low-level moisture.



=====Saturday through Early Next Week=====

On Saturday, ridging will move over the Ohio Valley, leading to the
warmest day of the week. We are looking at temperatures about 10
degrees above normal in the upper 60s and low 70s. Expecting
continued dry conditions for Saturday.

On Sunday, an upper low will shift southeast into the eastern Great
Lakes, bringing a surface low pressure with it. A cold front will
drag behind the low pressure and begin to stall in the Ohio Valley.
Not expecting much for showers and storms along this front, given
the drier airmass over the region. But a few showers will be
possible.

On Monday, ridging will build over the region, ahead of an incoming
trough and surface low pressure system. We should see good moisture
return and therefore a chance for showers and storms as the cold
front pushes through the region on Tuesday.



====(From Previous Forecast) Extended Forecast Discussion====

Aforementioned upper level wave looks to move through the region on
Tuesday with unsettled weather.  A broad southwest flow will develop
across the southeastern US as a major upper level trough axis drops
into the four corners region.  A secondary perturbation looks to
move across the region on Wednesday bringing another round of
showers and possible storms.

High latitude blocking is expected to grow stronger across northern
Canada and into Greenland as the NAO becomes quite negative.
Aforementioned upper trough axis over the four corners will eject
into the Plains by next Thursday and amplify significantly as it
approaches the Ohio Valley/Midwest by Friday.  Signal analysis has
been highlighting the 11/21-22 time frame for the last several
weeks.  The 11/00Z Euro solution is quite impressive with a negative
tilt trough axis and deepening low pressure sliding west of the
region. If this evolution should occur, an outbreak of severe
weather will be possible from the Ohio Valley southward into the
Gulf coast states.  We`ll need to watch this period of time very
closely.

An overall active weather pattern looks to continue into late
November.  There are increasing signals that the pattern is likely
to grow increasingly colder as we move from late November and into
December.  This is due to several hemispheric conditions that may
develop. High latitude blocking is forecast to continue across
northern Canada and Greenland.  Model teleconnection forecasts show
a rather strong -AO/-NAO pattern developing with the EPO likely
going negative as well.  At the same time, the MJO which is
currently in phase 6 is forecast to migrate over into phase 7 as we
close out November and head into December.  The push into phase 7 is
likely being aided by strong stratospheric warming over the
Antarctic regions which will shove the MJO into the western
Pacific/Western hemisphere.  Not to be outdone, there is growing
forecast confidence, at least from the Euro model, that we may see
some significant stratospheric warming over Canada toward the end of
November.  To be honest, this is one of the earliest SSW events that
I`ve seen coming out of the models.  SSW events usually precede some
perturbation of the PV which can unleash colder air masses into the
US.  The Euro weeklies out through December have been showing the
development of a ridge west, trough east pattern for much of
December which is in line with historical Decembers that feature La
Nina in the Pacific.  Bottom line here is that a quick start to
winter is becoming increasingly likely and December on a whole may
be quite cold for our region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

An upper trough and moisture has brought a mid-level cloud deck
around 10kft, where virga is present. Additionally, a 45-50kt low
level jet is building over the region this afternoon, which will
allow for gusty winds up to 28kts at the surface. Within a few hours
of sunset, a nocturnal inversion will develop and help surface winds
to relax some. With the jet present overnight, these conditions will
bring LLWS from 2-11Z over most of the region. On Wednesday morning,
surface winds will begin to veer to the west and skies will remain
clear.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW/MJ
AVIATION...SRW