348
FXUS63 KLMK 281525
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1125 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather with below normal temperatures will continue into the
  Labor Day weekend. There is a very low (<10%) chance for a shower
  this afternoon and Friday afternoon.

* Isolated to scattered daytime shower/storm chances will return for
  Labor Day into early next week, though significant rainfall
  amounts appear unlikely at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

The weather is pretty quiet across the area this morning, with only
some mid level clouds set to slided across the NE third of our CWA
through the afternoon and evening. Seeing some light returns on
radar upstream over central IN, but overall a lot of this moisture
likely won`t hit the ground. Can`t rule out a few sprinkles along
and north of I-64 later this afternoon and evening, but most likely
area for a few raindrops will be over in the Bluegrass. Not ready to
add any mention in the forecast at the moment, but will monitor
upstream obs/trends going into the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

This morning, sfc high pressure is centered over West Virginia and
is starting to be squeezed off to the east by two separate low
pressure systems. On the western flank, a Colorado low supported by
a mid-level shortwave will slide from the Ozarks across the lower
Miss. Valley later today. On the northern flank, a cold front
supported by an upper level trough will pivot from the St. Lawrence
valley and into the northeast US over the next 24 hours, with the
southern edge of the trough extending into the Midwest.

Today, much of our area will be in between the two above-mentioned
features, with subtle ridging swinging across the area. This should
keep most of the measurable precipitation chances to our northeast,
though a stray shower can`t be ruled out along and northeast of a
line from Scottsburg, IN to Winchester, KY. However, given that the
sfc-850 mb layer will remain very dry, the likelihood and expected
coverage of any precipitation will be low enough to keep a dry
forecast going. A mix of sun and clouds is expected across the area
today, with mainly high clouds expected across southern KY while a
mid-level cu field is more likely along and north of I-64. Since mid-
level moisture will be increasing ahead of the cold front to our
north, dry air mixdown might not be as strong as on Wednesday.
Still, minimum RH values this afternoon could still reach the upper
20s and lower 30, especially south of I-64. Highs should be 2-3
degrees warmer than on Wednesday given thickness trends, with a
range from 78-84 across the forecast area.

Tonight, the cold front to our north will continue to saunter
southward, losing upper-level support as troughing aloft pivots
toward upstate NY. Some high-res guidance tries to bring a band of
low-to-mid level clouds across northern portions of the forecast
area, along with a few sprinkles. If clouds are more prevalent,
overnight cooling may be limited, keeping lows a bit milder for
Friday morning. For this forecast, have a range between the low-to-
mid 50s in rural areas to around 60 in the Louisville metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

On Friday, a dissipating cold front is expected to extend from WNW
to ESE across the region, slowly pushing south through the day.
Since the upper-level trough which initially supported this front
will be pivoting across the northeast US and southeast Canada, the
disturbance will have little to no forcing to help generate
precipitation. With that being said, there are a few CAM/global
model solutions which generate isolated showers Friday afternoon
along the front (e.g., NAM 3km and ECMWF). Soundings from these
models do show a small layer of instability between 850-700 mb, and
this, along with convergence along the front, is likely what is
forcing these showers. It should also be noted that the NAM`s usual
llvl moisture bias may be playing a role in generating additional
showers. In contrast, dry-bias models like the HRRR/RAP/GFS show
little to no shower activity. In any case, the overall lack of deep-
layer moisture and forcing keeps me from going with a mentionable
PoP; however, wouldn`t be surprised if we see an isolated shower
Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday should be closer to climo than in
recent days, ranging from the low-to-mid 80s across the area.

Over the weekend, the above-mentioned cold front should wash out
near or just south of the forecast area, with drier and slightly
cooler air filtering in from the northeast behind the front. With
the air mass behind the front not entirely pushing into the area,
there should be a decent temperature gradient across the region
Saturday and Sunday. Highs should reach the low-to-mid 80s across
southern KY over the weekend, while remaining in the upper 70s to
around 80 across north central KY and southern IN. All in all, it
should be a lovely Labor Day weekend, with dry northeasterly breezes
continuing to squash precipitation chances.

By Labor Day into early next week, medium-range guidance suggests
that an east coast CAD event may try to set up over the Carolinas,
with inverted troughing extending from the Tennessee valley
northeastward across our area. If this setup occurs, we would start
to see moisture return to the area, sufficient for at least isolated
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, particularly across
southern and southeastern KY. By Tuesday, moisture return is looking
to be sufficient that most of the area will have at least a slight
chance for an afternoon/evening shower or storm. Diurnal temperature
ranges should decrease somewhat early next week, though overall,
below normal temperatures are favored to continue. Highs are
expected to be in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s with lows in the
mid-to-upper 50s and low 60s.

There is increasing agreement that a stronger system will descend
into the region next Wednesday into Thursday. This would bring a
more widespread chance for rain ahead of a cold front, along with
another drop in temperatures/humidity behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 701 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the current forecast period.
With a weak pressure gradient in place, winds should be less than 10
kt through the day today, with wind direction veering from SW to NW
during the afternoon. An area of mid-level clouds will approach
SDF/LEX/RGA later today, with cloud bases expected to be around 8-10
kft. After sunset this evening, light and variable winds are again
expected through mid-morning Friday, with mid-level clouds
continuing to stream across the area through the end of the current
forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CSG