455
FXUS63 KLMK 011951
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
251 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain and drizzle continues tonight with low stratus clouds.

* Short period of dry weather expected for Monday afternoon and
  Tuesday with mild/breezy conditions.

* Unsettled weather returns by late Tuesday and Wednesday as the
  next weather system moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

===== Tonight Through Tuesday =====

KLVX and surrounding radars show light rain and/or drizzle
progressing northeastward across the area today, which is a result
of a weak mid-level shortwave and associated vorticity. Lingering
dry air in the lower levels has made it challenging for most
locations to receive beneficial rainfall. KY Mesonet obs show the
highest accumulations since midnight to be generally west of the I-
165 corridor.

Expect dreary weather to continue for tonight with light rain and
drizzle. With top-down saturation gradually taking place today,
we`ll see our profile become more saturated by tonight as low
stratus settles across the area. With a more favorable saturation
profile tonight, expect lingering light rain and drizzle to produce
additional accumulations through tomorrow morning. Between 18z today
to 18z tomorrow, the best chances (70-80%) for 0.10" of rain is
generally west of I-75. For the Bluegrass region (mainly along I-75
and east), only a 40-50% chance for a meager 0.10".

Rain will lift north of the area by Monday afternoon, leading to a
dry period for the rest of the day on Monday through most of
Tuesday. This will occur as brief ridge builds downstream of a
deepening upper low over the Plains. There will likely be a temp
gradient from north to south across the area tomorrow. Lingering
rain and lower stratus will keep temps cooler north of the I-64
corridor, with temps only reaching the low 60s tomorrow afternoon.
However, drier and clearing clouds will help south-central KY warm
to near 70.

By Tuesday, we`ll still be in our brief dry period, though we will
be getting squeezed between a sfc high over the mid-Atlantic and the
deepening sfc low over the Central Plains. This will support a
tightening sfc pressure gradient, and increasing SW flow will ramp
up the WAA regime. Highs on Tuesday should reach the upper 70s,
though there is a non-zero chance for some areas to peak around 80.
LEX could challenge their Nov 3 max T record, which currently stands
at 77 in 2024. Winds could be gusty at times, and can`t rule out
some gusts up to 25-30 mph.

===== Tuesday Night - Saturday =====

By Tuesday night, a large upper level low will pivot a deep trough
axis across the central US, driving a north-south oriented cold
front east of the Mississippi River by Wednesday morning. Ahead of
this front, we`ll see rainfall activity arrive from the west Tuesday
night, and progress to the east through Wednesday morning. The LLJ
ahead of the sfc low will strengthen across the Ohio Valley Tuesday
night, potentially up to 55-60 kts, which will dramatically increase
our moisture fetch into the area. PWATs could increase to 1.7-1.8"
by Wednesday morning due to the strong moisture transport, which
would be quite impressive given sounding climatology max is around
1.6" for BNA. Also, high shear is expected given the strong low
level wind profiles, but fortunately little to no CAPE is realized
due to the nocturnal timing and very saturated profiles. Wednesday
will be a dreary, rainy day, but should see precip taper off from
west to east by Wednesday night. Drier weather is expected for
Thursday, but then a secondary wave will move through the area on
Friday. We could see upwards to 1-2 inches of rainfall by the end of
the upcoming week, which would be beneficial given the ongoing
drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Light rain continues to shift northeast through the area today, and
expect conditions to gradually worsen through the forecast period.
Cigs will bring the biggest impact to flight cats, with drops to
MVFR expected by overnight for all terminals. Light rain or drizzle
will persist through the morning, with HNB the best chance of seeing
IFR tomorrow  morning. We`ll eventually see precip taper off through
the morning tomorrow, though most terminals remain in a MVFR state
for the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJP
AVIATION...CJP