252
FXUS63 KLMK 202036
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
336 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cloudy and cool with widespread rain showers across much of
  southern Kentucky this afternoon and into this evening.

* Waves of rain showers, with a few embedded storms, will continue
  tonight through Saturday morning. Severe weather and flooding
  remain unlikely with this system.

* The late weekend and into early next week will see drier
  conditions, before another chance for rain arrives by next
  Tuesday. Temperatures turn cooler by Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 336 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Widespread cloudiness continues across the region with temperatures
in the low-mid 50s across southern Indiana and into much of central
Kentucky.  Some upper 50s were observed down along the KY/TN border
region.  Area radars show widespread light to moderate rains across
much of southern Kentucky (mainly south of the WK/BG Parkways).
Expect this activity to continue through the late afternoon and into
the evening hours.  Highs on the day will occur in the next 1-2
hours with temperatures remaining generally steady in the 50s this
evening.

Moving into tonight, a stronger shortwave trough axis will move
across the Great Plains and into the Great Lakes.  Associated with
this upper wave will be a surface low pressure center that develops
over the TX/OK area with a warm frontal boundary extending eastward
through southern MO and into TN/KY.  After an initial break in the
precipitation early this evening, a secondary surge of rain showers
is expected to move back into the region late tonight and into
Friday morning.  Model soundings are pretty stable across much of
the region, but there is some elevated instability that is forecast
to develop down along the KY/TN border.  For this reason will keep a
chance of thunder in the forecast down that way.  Lows tonight will
be in the upper 40s to the lower 50s across southern IN and the
northern half of KY.  Mid-upper 50s will be seen across southern KY.

On Friday, upper level wave will gradually weaken and flatten out as
it heads towards the Great Lakes.  A warm frontal boundary will lift
northward and likely stall out somewhere across the region.  Latest
progs suggest it may get as far north as the I-64 corridor.  The
frontal placement will be a big factor on how much temps warm
tomorrow.  Generally will run upper 50s to near 60 across southern
Indiana with mid-upper 60s across much of central Kentucky.  Some
lower 70s will be possible down along the KY/TN border.

Friday night we`ll see the surface low cross the region in an west
to east fashion with a trailing cold front cross the area.  Best
combination of moisture and shear will remain well south of us
(likely south of the I-40 corridor), so severe weather potential
across our region looks very limited.  Nonetheless, can`t rule out
some lightning strikes with some of the activity across southern KY.
We expect showers and storms to come to an end from west to east
overnight. Lows will dip back into the mid-upper 40s across southern
IN with low-mid 50s expected across KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 336 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Saturday through Sunday Night...

Upper trough axis will shift to through the region Saturday morning.
Overall, the forecast has trended much drier for Saturday and some
partial clearing now looks likely by Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures will range from the upper 50s across southern IN and
northern KY to the lower 60s across southern KY.  Lows Saturday
night will drop back into the middle 30s.  Upper ridging will then
build across the region in earnest on Sunday and into Sunday night.
The forecast remains dry through this period with highs again in the
upper 50s to near 60 across southern IN and northern KY, with lower
60s mainly across southern KY.  Lows Sunday night will be a little
milder with readings in the upper 30s to around 40.

Monday through Thursday...

Upper ridging will hold sway across the region on Monday with a
broad south to southwest flow developing.  Still seeing a bit of
spread in the models on the next weather system arriving either
Monday afternoon and Monday evening.  The Euro and GEM have trended
slightly slower while the GFS remains more progressive.

Aloft we`ll see a mid-level shortwave trough move out of the Plains
and then begin to lose amplitude as it moves into the Great Lakes.
Attendant surface low will pass well to the west/northwest of our
area but we`ll see an arcing cold front sweep into the region late
Monday and pass through the region late Tuesday.  Dynamical forcing
with this system continues to trend downward in intensity, and model
soundings are not all that impressive with instability, so the
threat of severe weather looks a bit more limited with this system.
The pressure gradient will increase though, so breezy conditions
with rain showers appears to be the most likely scenario for Monday
night and through the day on Tuesday.  Highs on Monday will warm
into the low-mid 60s with overnight lows only dropping into the
lower 50s.  Highs Tuesday will likely peak in the low-mid 60s ahead
of the front, with lows Tuesday night dropping into the upper 30s
west of I-65, with low-mid 40s east of I-65.  Probably will see some
lingering showers into Tuesday night and Wednesday as the front
slides east, but the upper trough lags behind.  A cooler airmass
will then gradually filter in on Wednesday with highs in the 50s but
the much colder air will likely arrive by Wednesday night as temps
drop into the upper 20s to around 30.

By Thursday, deterministic and ensemble guidance is relatively good
agreement with a deep cyclonic flow across the Ohio Valley.  High
pressure looks to drift across the region resulting in dry
conditions but colder than normal temperatures.  Highs will likely
be in the lower 40s across southern Indiana and much of central
Kentucky.  Southern KY will be a little milder with mid-upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Light to moderate rain will move through the terminals this
afternoon.  Main question/challenge will be how will cigs behave.
Earlier guidance had improvement in the cigs this afternoon as the
low clouds may scour out.  Latest data backed off that, but we may
see IFR conditions improve to VFR for a time late this
afternoon/evening.  Vsbys should be mostly MVFR due to the light
rain.  This evening, we`ll see cigs fall back down with low clouds
and mist being common across the region.  A break in the rain
showers is expected with additional showers returning to the area
between 21/9-12Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ