827
FXUS63 KLMK 281734
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1234 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cool and dry weather continues through tonight.

* Storm system will work into the region Saturday afternoon through
  Sunday morning. An initial burst of snow or a rain/snow mix is
  possible, especially across southern IN and northern KY. Light
  snow accumulations are likely in southern IN.

* Impacts from wintry weather Saturday/Saturday night should be
  minimized by marginal ground/air temperatures. Precipitation
  should change to all rain by Saturday night.

* Increasing chance of wintry weather is expected Monday night into
  Tuesday, with better chances for accumulating impactful snow
  across KY.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Mostly sunny skies across southern IN and central KY this morning
have helped temperatures to warm into the upper 20s and low 30s as
of 16Z. High pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley this morning
will cross the region later today, bringing us continued sunny skies
and light and variable winds. Without any return flow to boost
temperatures, highs this afternoon should only make it into the mid-
to-upper 30s and low 40s, roughly 15 degrees below normal for this
time of year.

The forecast is on track at this time, with minor updates made to
near-term T/Td/Wind trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 429 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

It will be a cold start to the day as temperatures this morning are
already in the low to mid 20s across the area under clear skies. An
area of strong sfc high pressure stretching from the Dakotas into
the Mid Mississippi Valley, will continue to build in over the
region today. This will give us a dry, mostly sunny but another
chilly day. Temperatures remain well below normal with afternoon
temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 30s with a few locations
hitting 40 along the KY/TN border. While winds will be lighter than
the past few days, there ill be enough of a sfc pressure gradient to
keep winds between 5-15 mph, making it feel like it is in the upper
20s to low 30s at times.

The next system starts to take shape coming off the Rockies and over
western KS as a shortwave trough comes out of the Intermountain West
tonight. Slight upper ridging begins to develop over the Ohio Valley
ahead of this developing system as sfc high works pushes to our east
overnight.  We will start off with mostly clear skies and light
winds but high clouds will be on the increase later during the
overnight with light winds shifting and becoming more southerly in
the early morning hours of Saturday. Even with increasing clouds,
there should be enough radiational cooling early in the overnight
for temperatures to fall into the low 20s and even a few upper
teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 429 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Deepening upper trough and associated sfc low over will be located
and centered across eastern KS and western MO to start the day
Saturday. Ahead of the system warm moist air will advect northward
over the shallow cold air in place over the Ohio Valley. Initially,
the first wave of precipitation associated with this system will
fall through the colder, drier layer near the surface. This initial
precipitation will evaporate through sublimation before reaching the
surface, cooling and saturating the atmosphere over the area. Once
the deep moisture advection overcomes the near surface dry layer,
some precipitation along and north of the Ohio River could fall as
snow or a rain/snow mix. Confidence is growing as the short range hi-
res guidance continues to show this scenario of a brief period of
snow late Saturday afternoon/early evening mainly along and north of
the I-64 corridor in southern IN. Timing over the last couple of
runs shows this initial strong surge of precipitation ahead of a
very strong LLJ to arrive sometime after 18z to around 00z. While
impacts from this look to be minimal, considering higher travel
volume from people returning from the Thanksgiving Holiday and
shoppers out during the day Saturday, a slushy coating to near an
inch is expected from the Ohio River up to our most northern tier of
counties in southern IN. Based on the current data, don`t see the
need for a Winter Weather Advisory at this time but one could be
needed with later forecast packages.

Saturday night into Sunday, warm air advection will win out over the
area scouring out the low-level cold layer, changing all the
precipitation over to rain as temperatures warm to near 40 and hold
in the upper 30s to near 40 overnight. Rain showers look to hold on
for most of Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold
front will quickly push through Sunday morning bringing another shot
of cold air. Temperatures will start out in the upper 30s/low 40s
Sunday morning then fall to the low 30s by Sunday evening and into
the low mid 20s by Monday morning. Monday looks to be dry but mostly
cloudy as strong Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. Highs will once again be chilly ranging from the
low/mid 30s for the northern half of the CWA to the upper 30s to
near 40s to the south.

The next impactful system starts to arrive Monday night into
Tuesday. This continues to look like a more favorable setup for
accumulating snow for part of the CWA. Medium range guidance is
continue to come into agreement developing a sfc low over the
western Gulf and then lifting it to the northeast through the TN
Valley as it interacts with deepening shortwave trough axis swinging
through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Accumulating snow
in the range of around 1 to possibly 3 inches could be possible
Monday night into Tuesday morning. While confidence is growing that
parts of the CWA will see impactful snowfall, confidence is still
not high on exact location and who sees how much. Some of the things
to watch will be where snow falls with the first system Saturday
night into Sunday. Depending on how far south that snow falls, this
could help reinforce snow further south allowing for accumulating
snow also further south. Keep in mind, that given the vertical
temperatures profiles with this system, precipitation types will
also range from snow, to wintry mix of sleet, snow and even possible
frz rain and rain. While specific details remain unanswered this far
out, we will continue to message the possible impacts from this
system as we get closer.

Behind the Monday night/Tuesday system, drier weather is expected
for the middle of next week, though the persistence of the split
flow upper pattern may lead to additional disturbances during the
second half of next week. Temperatures are expected to remain below
normal, as suggested by the CPC 6-10 day outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

For the remainder of the afternoon and this evening, VFR conditions
will continue as high pressure moves across the area. Winds will
gradually ease out of the W/NW this afternoon before becoming light
and variable this evening. Tonight, mid- and high-level clouds will
approach from the west, gradually building down Saturday morning
ahead of an approaching system. Winds should become easterly late
tonight, increasing in speed and veering to the SE later in the day
on Saturday. While most forecast sites should remain dry through
this forecast period, there is a low-medium chance of snow showers
impacting HNB after 15Z Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...CSG