Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 030712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
312 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Canadian high pressure centered near the Great Lakes region will
influence our weather through the short term. Currently observing
mostly clear skies across southern Indiana and the western half of
Kentucky, while stratus persists across much of eastern Kentucky.
Models aren`t handling these low level clouds and moisture very
well, but based on satellite trends and upstream drier air, believe
we should see most of the stratus dissipate or push out of the
region shortly after sunrise.

Conditions today will be very similar to yesterday as the overall
pattern has not changed very much. Other than some lingering morning
clouds out east, most of the day should feature cerulean skies with
plenty of sunshine. Afternoon highs will top out in the low to mid
70s. Surface high pressure to the north will sustain light
northeasterly winds.

Overnight, skies will stay clear and winds will turn light to calm.
With slightly drier air in place, temperatures will be a bit cooler
compared previous nights as overnight lows drop into the upper 30s
to low 40s.


.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

It will be a pleasant long term period as upper ridging sits over
the Ohio Valley for the first half of the week. By Thursday, a
shortwave trough will support a sfc cold front passage.

Forecast highs will be the warmest on Wed and Thu as a sfc high sits
across KY and IN. Expect afternoon highs to be in the upper 70s and
low 80s. The aforementioned cold front arrives by Thu night, and low
level flow will veer to a cool NW regime. Plenty of dry air will
yield very low precip chances, and better forcing remains to our NE
across the Great Lakes. Much colder air comes for the weekend as a
large Canadian high tracks into the midwest. With Sat and Sun AM
lows possibly in the 30s, seems probable for a frost/freeze event.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Stratus over
eastern Kentucky will linger over KLEX through a good part of the
morning but should gradually dissipate and push eastward after
sunrise. Nearby high pressure will keep winds out of the northeast
through the forecast period.




Short Term...DM
Long Term...CJP
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