902
FXUS66 KLOX 251112
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
312 AM PST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...25/1217 AM.

Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with
above normal temperatures and gusty Santa Ana winds at times
from Tuesday through Thursday. A cooling trend will develop next
weekend with areas of gusty north winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...25/239 AM.

Not much going on in the short term. At the upper levels, weak
ridging will continue over the area with hgts ranging from 580 to
582 dam. At the sfc offshore flow will will continue through the
period peaking Wednesday.

There will not be much in the way of clouds today. There will be
some patchy low clouds across the LA cst and quite a few clouds in
the interior SLO vly including the Paso Robles area. The stronger
offshore flow will keep the coasts and vlys clear Wednesday, but
the interior of SLO county may well be cloudy again as the
offshore flow pushes low clouds into the area from the San Joaquin
Vly. Thanksgiving looks cloudy as a grip of mid and high level
clouds is forecast to move overhead.

As for winds, there is no upper of thermal support so any winds
will have to totally rely on the sfc gradients. There will be some
gusty north winds today but with only isolated advisory level
gust. The winds will turn NE Wednesday morning and a weak Santa
Ana wind event will ensue. The offshore gradients will both be
around 5 mb. Again, with no upper support it is unlikely that
there will be a need for advisories. Weakening offshore flow on
Thanksgiving will likely only produce 15 to 25 mph canyon winds in
the morning.

The downsloping offshore flow will bring 4 to 8 degrees of warming
to the csts/vlys today. The interior will cool a few degrees as
cooler air form the interior advects in. Max temps today will be
about 6 degrees over normal across the csts/vlys with plenty of
readings in the 70s. Hgts and offshore flow peak Wednesday and
this should lead to 2 to 4 degrees of additional warming. This
will push most max temps into the mid 70s to lower 80s. The
decrease in offshore flow on Thursday along with lowering hgts and
the increase in cloud cover will result in 2 to 4 locally 6
degrees of cooling. Despite the cooling most max temps will end
up 2 to 4 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...25/311 AM.

Weak troffing sets up over the area on Friday. The high clouds
will move off to the east and it will be a mostly sunny day. The
offshore flow weakens to near neutral and this will bring 3 to 6
degrees of cooling to the csts and vlys despite the added
sunshine. The added sunshine will bring several degrees of warming
to

While there is still some uncertainty with the weekend forecast
all mdls are trending drier. At this point it looks like there
will be only a 20 percent chc of rain as almost all of the
ensembles are showing more of dry inside track of the system. Even
if rain does occur rainfall rates/totals will be very low, since
the system originated from the interior and has no moisture
source. No doubt about the cooling trend as increased clouds,
lowering hgts and a return to onshore flow all gang up to lower
max temps by 3 to 6 degrees each day. By Sunday max temps will
mostly be in the lower to mid 60s across the csts/vlys.

Monday looks dry and windy as north flow sets up behind the
departing low. At the same time moderate offshore flow from the
north will develop. Increasing hgts and a return to sunny skies
will bring a 2 to 4 degree warm up. Max temps will still be 3 to 6
degrees blo normal.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0642Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 1900 ft with a temperature of 18 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.

Good confidence in TAFs for KSMX, KSBP and KSBA where there is a
20 percent chc of 2-3SM BR conds 09Z-17Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 30 percent
chc of IFR cigs/vis 11Z-17Z.

Low to moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLAX and KLGB. There
is a 20 percent chc of no cigs. If low clouds do arrive they could
arrive as early as 08Z. There is a 20 percent chc of 1/4SM VV002
conds 11Z-15Z.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent
chc of no cigs. If low clouds do arrive they could arrive as early
as 08Z. There is a 20 percent chc of 1/4SM VV002 conds 11Z-15Z.
Good confidence that any east wind component will be under 6kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. There is a 10 percent chc of 4SM HZ
conds 12Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/106 AM.

Seas will linger above or near 10 feet more than 20 NM from shore
through at leasst mid morning before decreasing to well below
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria. Conditions will remain
relatively mild nearshore through Thanksgiving week, but there is
a moderate chance of north-northeast winds gusting 20-30 knots
nearshore from Ventura to Santa Monica Tuesday through Thursday,
with strongest winds expected Tuesday night into Wednesday
afternoon.

Winds and seas will increase to SCA levels once again across the
Outer Waters as early as Thursday night or Friday. Nearshore along
the Central Coast and in the Santa Barbara Channel, winds will
increase Saturday afternoon and night, to just below SCA levels.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty for this weekend, but there is
a moderate to high chance of widespread SCA conditions, including
nearshore. Seas will likely increase to around 10 to 12 feet
across the outer waters, and 6 to 8 feet inside the Southern
California Bight. There is a low to moderate chance of widespread
Gale Force Winds this weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for
      zones 344-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Lewis/Ciliberti/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox