699
FXUS66 KLOX 040541
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1041 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...03/621 PM.

An upper-level trough of low pressure will continue to exit the
region through Saturday. Skies will continue to clear with gusty
northerly winds expected in portions of Santa Barbara, Ventura,
and Los Angeles Counties into early Saturday. Cooler than normal
conditions will linger into late next week as broad troughing
remains over the West. A warming trend is possible for late next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...03/808 PM.

The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough of low
pressure exiting the region this evening. Some light rain or
night through morning drizzle was recorded overnight last night
and into this morning as the trough`s dynamics moved over the
region. Clouds are clearing this evening and any low clouds should
rather broken up. The best chances for any low clouds will be for
the immediate Central Coast, southern Los Angeles County, the
interior portions of San Luis Obispo, and the interior slopes of
the mountains. The developing northerly gradient and cold air
advection will continue to scour out the low clouds and weaken
the marine inversion making for a less chance of clouds across the
coastal and valley areas.

The tightening northerly gradient will bring an increase in
northerly winds across southern Santa Barbara County and through
the Interstate 5 Corridor. The winds at Gaviota Hills RAWS are
already hitting advisory criteria this evening as the KSBA-KSMX
tightened to around -4.5 mb earlier. Northerly winds should start
to develop through Interstate 5 Corridor as NAM-WRF boundary layer
and 850 mb winds increase, while 850 mb thermal gradients tighten
to near 6 degrees Celsius over the Interstate 5 Corridor. A wind
advisory is in effect until 5 am Saturday for southern Santa
Barbara County, through the Interstate 5 Corridor, and down into
the far western portion of the Antelope Valley.

As the trough vacates, a slight amount of warming will develop
through the weekend, but temperatures will largely remain on the
cool side of normal through the weekend.

***From Previous Discussion***

With the upper low moving into the Great Basin Saturday onshore
flow reverses to a light offshore push in the morning and forecast
soundings indicate much drier conditions in the boundary layer.
This should lead to a sunny start to the day in most areas and at
least 3-6 degrees of warming. Models continue to show another shot
of northerly winds Saturday evening but not as strong or
widespread as today. Sunday will be similar to Saturday in most
areas with a slight warning trend, mainly inland areas. Highs will
still be a few degrees below normal in most areas.

A few degrees of cooling expected Monday as the next upper low
dropping out of Canada carves a trough across the Great Basin and
California. May start to see a return of marine layer stratus by
that time, but otherwise minimal impacts locally.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...03/154 PM.

The trough will remain in place into next weekend keeping
temperatures cooler than normal, and likely with a steady dose of
marine layer stratus that may reach the valleys, but otherwise
very low impact weather across the area at least through Thursday.

The forecast gets significantly more complicated at the end of
next week as that trough continues to deepen along the West Coast,
while at the same time some of model solutions are showing another
tropical system moving up the coast from Mexico. A few of those
solutions actually bring some rain to southern California as early
as next Friday. It will likely take well into next week to get
some clarity on this pattern but for now there are some slight
chances for rain in the forecast late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0540Z.

At 0526Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep, with a weak
inversion up to around 1300 ft with a maximum temperature of 19
C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KSMX, KSBP, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA,
KPMD, and KWJF.

Low confidence in TAF for KPRB. There is a 50% chance of MVFR
cigs from 10Z through 17Z.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. 10-20% chance of brief MVFR
cigs developing between 10Z-17Z for LA County sites, highest at
KLGB. There is a 40% chance no north winds impact KVNY tonight,
and a 20% chance they do surface at KBUR through 10Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance of
BKN008-BKN018 cigs from 12Z-17Z Sat. Between 08Z and 17Z, there
is a 30% chance of an east wind component reaching 8 kts.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. 20% chance for north winds up
to 10 kts through 10Z. There is a 10% chance of BKN010-BKN025
cigs from 10Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...03/804 PM.

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters around Point
Conception and south to San Nicolas Island as well as across the
entirety of the Santa Barbara Channel through late tonight. Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will linger following Gale force
winds for the outer waters and portions of the inner waters thru
Saturday night. After Saturday night, conditions generally look to
remain below SCA criteria through mid-week.

For the waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange counties,
moderate confidence in widespread SCA seas and NW to W winds
through this evening, including nearshore (specifically Long
Beach & northward). Thereafter, conditions generally look to
remain below SCA criteria through mid-week.

Seas will be large and very choppy through late tonight, peaking
between 8 and 12 feet for the Outer Waters and nearshore Central
Coast waters, and 5 to 8 feet for the inner waters south of Point
Conception, highest in the Santa Barbara Channel. Seas may reach
10 feet in the southern portion of the Santa Barbara Channel.

These strong NW to W winds and large, choppy seas will create
dangerous boating conditions for many of the nearshore waters
around the islands and at the coasts. These conditions will be
especially dangerous for small vessels. Remain in safe harbor
through tonight until conditions improve.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 349-351-352-378-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones
      650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Black/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox