207
FXUS66 KLOX 021903
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1103 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...02/155 AM.

Near normal temperatures are expected the next few days with
some breezy Santa Ana winds at times Wednesday and Thursday.
A significant warming trend will begin Sunday and continue into
the middle of next week with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...02/905 AM.

***UPDATE***

It was a chilly night across Southwest California as weak offshore
flow continued to help funnel in colder air into the region
overnight. The northern Ventura County mountains took the cake
for the coldest location, with temps in the high teens to low 20s.
Widespread lows in the mid 20`s to low 30`s were common this
morning across the Antelope Valley, Santa Clarita Valley, interior
SLO Valleys (including southern Salinas), and most mountain areas
across LA and SLO Counties.

A transition to afternoon onshore flow will help to keep
overnight lows tonight a few degrees warmer than last night.
Another Santa Ana wind event is on track to begin Wednesday in the
late morning and continue through Thursday, with winds peaking
Thursday morning. Wind advisories are likely for portions of
Santa Ana Wind prone areas of LA and Ventura counties during the
peak window, but even beginning as early as late Wednesday
morning.

***From Previous Discussion***

The upper level pattern across the eastern Pacific and the West
coast continues to favor storms riding up and over California and
down into the Great Basin. So while Monday`s Santa Ana is mostly
done, some lingering northeast winds still continue in the usual
favored areas. And another Santa Ana is on the way Wednesday and
Thursday. In the meantime, sub advisory level northeast winds will
continue through this morning before a brief period of neutral or
slight onshore flow develops this afternoon and evening with some
traditional west to northwest sea breezes developing. Afternoon
temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal but morning
lows will be chilly under a dry air mass and minimal marine
inversion. Frost Advisories and Freeze warnings are in effect for
the coldest interior areas including the Antelope Valley and
Cuyama valley. Overnight lows are expected to warm a few degrees
with the transition to onshore flow tonight.

A return to offshore flow will occur Wednesday and Thursday
following the next trough into the Great Basin. Like this last
event there isn`t a ton of upper level support but some low end
advisory level winds are possible in portions of the Ventura/LA
Valleys and mountains. This is another cooler Santa Ana event so
highs will still be mostly in the 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...02/245 AM.

A pattern shift will begin Friday and continue into next week as
an unseasonably strong high pressure system sets up over the
eastern Pacific. Latest models are indicating that the anticyclone
will peak at 592dam Friday morning which is pegging the 99th to
100th percentile in strength. While the high does weaken slightly
after that, it`s still at the 98th percentile as late as next
Tuesday. With this persistent strong ridging across the region
temperatures will be warming up quite a bit with warmest day
likely next Wednesday. In the meantime, highs will be 3-6 degrees
above normal this weekend, warming to 5-10 degrees above normal
next week. At this time not seeing any Santa Ana`s next week but
some increasing northerly flow is likely over the weekend which
could bring some gusty winds to some of the mountain areas.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1859Z.

At 1712Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer, but there was a
surface-based inversion up to 700 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

Moderate to high confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, and
KSBA, KWJF, and KPMD. At KPRB, KSMX, and KSBA there is a 10
percent chance of IFR- MVFR cigs from 13-16Z Wed.

Low to moderate confidence for KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX, KLGB,
KBUR, and KVNY. Arrival of any cigs may be off by 2-3 hours from
forecast and may be off by 1 category at times. There is also a
10-25% chance that no cigs form at sites where they are
forecasted. IFR- MVFR conditions are possible (20% chance) between
12Z-17Z Wed at KBUR and KVNY, and there is a 15% chance of brief
dense fog (V/LIFR) conditions across the LA Basin from 13Z-16Z
Wed.

KLAX... Moderate confidence in TAF, cigs may for between
BKN008-BKN025, with a 20 percent chance of VFR conditions through
the period. East winds are possible after 12Z Wed, with a 20%
chance of the east wind component exceeding 6-8kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF, there is a 20% chance of
BKN008-BKN025 cigs between 12Z-17Z Wed.

&&

.MARINE...02/1102 AM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. The latest
observations indicate seas running higher than progged. Meanwhile,
there is less confidence in an offshore wind event Wednesday
night through Thursday, which could affect the nearshore coastal
waters.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and beyond 30 NM of the Central Coast, winds and seas will likely
remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through this
afternoon, then there is a 50 to 60 percent chance of SCA level
seas developing tonight through Wednesday afternoon or evening.
Winds and seas should mostly remain below SCA levels Thursday
through Saturday, with winds increasing to near SCA levels at
times, mainly Friday night and Saturday night.

For the nearshore waters, waters inside 30 NM off the Cental
Coast, and across the southern California bight, winds and seas
will likely remain below SCA levels through Wednesday afternoon,
then there is a 30 to 50 percent chance of SCA level winds with
short-period seas developing on Wednesday night and Thursday
morning. Thereafter, winds and seas are expected to generally
remain below SCA levels through Saturday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM Wednesday to 3 PM PST
      Thursday for zones
      88-354-355-358-362-369>371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning
      for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Thursday for zone
      354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 10 AM PST
      Wednesday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PST Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      PM PST Wednesday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PST
      Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox