234
FXUS66 KLOX 090608
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1008 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...08/644 PM.

A warming trend will continue this week with well above normal
temperatures through Friday, peaking Tuesday through Thursday.
Offshore flow will produce locally gusty canyon winds in the
mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...08/745 PM.

***UPDATE***

A 591 MB ridge of high pressure is centered about 700 miles west
of Los Angeles, and will remain nearly stationary (while weakening
some) through midweek. At the surface, high pressure centered
west of the Bay Area extends inland over central California and
the Great Basin. With lower pressure over the southern California
Bight, offshore pressure gradients have set up over the region.
At 700 PM this evening, the LAX to Daggett gradient was -4.3 MB.
This gradient is forecast to strengthen some overnight, and again
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will maintain weak to
locally moderate Santa Ana Winds over portions of the area, from
the Santa Lucias to the Santa Susana Mountains and the San
Gabriels. Peak wind gusts will be between 25 to 40 mph in the
Santa Ana wind-prone areas, with occasional gusts up to 45 mph
possible.

Along with the breezy winds, warm and dry conditions will persist
through the week, with highs peaking Tuesday and Wednesday.
Expect highs to be in the 70s to mid 80s, with upper 80s in the
warmer valleys. By Thursday, some cooling is expected as the upper
ridge begins to weaken over the area.

***From Previous Discussion***

Weak Santa Ana conditions associated with weak to moderate
offshore flow across the region will persist through Wednesday
under a quite strong ridge aloft for this time of year. The result
will be dry, warm, and breezy conditions with widespread highs in
the 70s to mid 80s with the warmest valleys nearing 90 degrees.
These types of temperatures may bring increased concerns for heat
illnesses for vulnerable people or those who are outside for a
prolonged period of time. The dry air mass and long nights this
time of year will support temperatures dropping off quickly in the
evening, especially where winds drop off. The ridge begins
breaking down with offshore flow weakening or reversing onshore
Thursday, kicking off a decent cooling trend.

A Wind Advisory continues for the Santa Lucias with marginal wind
advisory possible for the most prone Santa Ana wind areas of
Ventura/Los Angeles County. Fortunately, fire weather concerns are
still limited due to the significant rainfall we experienced
earlier this season.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...08/239 PM.

Seasonably warm conditions are anticipated this weekend with
night to morning low clouds potentially returning to coastal areas
along with afternoon to evening breezy onshore to northwest
winds.

Rainfree conditions look to continue well into next week. There
is a 30-40 percent chance of a strong ridge rebuilding overhead
into the middle part of next week with weak to moderate Santa Ana
conditions at times. In this scenario, widespread highs in the 70s
to mid 80s would return for most coasts and coastal valleys. If
the ridge is weaker or offshore flow doesnt materialize (40-50
percent chance), more seasonably warm temperatures (60s and 70s)
would be common.

&&

.AVIATION...09/0607Z.

At 0510Z at KLAX, There was no marine layer. There was a surface-
based inversion with a top of 900 feet and a temperature of 25 C.

High confidence in TAFs.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. Any east wind component will
be less than 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...08/800 PM.

For the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are
likely through at least Wednesday morning, with a 30-40% chance
of winds lingering through the rest of the week. SCA winds are
mostly likely north of San Nicolas Island during the afternoon
and evening hours.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception and the nearshore
waters along the Central Coast out to 10 NM offshore, there is a
60% percent chance of local northeast SCA level wind gusts from
Ventura to Santa Monica and a 60-70% chance of northeast SCA
winds from near Pismo Beach to Point Piedras Blancas late tonight
though Tuesday morning. There is a low-to- moderate (20 to 40
percent) chance of SCA level NE winds once again for the
aforementioned areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PST Tuesday for
      zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Tuesday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe/Ciliberti
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Lund/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Gomberg/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox