856
FXUS66 KLOX 160653
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1053 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...15/208 PM.

Scattered showers can be expected through Sunday. There is also a
slight chance of thunderstorms through early this evening.
This coming Wednesday looks to be dry and milder. Otherwise, the
stormy pattern will continue with periods of rain possible through
late next week. Below normal daytime temperatures can be expected
for much of the time as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...15/732 PM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate upper low
spinning just off the coast with plenty of moisture wrapping
around the low. Main shower activity has rotated over Ventura,
Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, main focus will be on
the upper low. This feature will continue to slowly move eastward,
moving inland overnight. Overnight, the cyclonic flow around the
low will keep some shower activity going over the entire area.
However, the intensity of the shower activity will gradually
diminish this evening and overnight. So, with this expectation of
diminishing intensity, the FLOOD WATCH will be allowed to expire
at 800 PM.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short
term with chance/likely POPs for all areas through the overnight
hours. So, only minor tweaks have been made to the forecast.

***From Previous Discussion***

***MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS
 FLOWS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING***

The main rain bands with the current storm system will move off
to the N by late today as the upper level low center approaches
the coast. The rain pattern will turn to showers and persist into
tonight as the upper level low center passes thru the region.

Plenty of lingering moisture and increased instability will lead
to a chance to slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening especially over southern parts of the forecast area.
Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing heavy
rain, gusty winds and small hail.

While there is enough twist in the lower atmosphere to allow any
TSTM that forms to produce severe weather or even a weak tornado,
the real threat from any convection will be the rainfall rates
which could still be close to 0.50 inch to 1 inch per hour at
times. These rainfall rates on top of the already saturated
grounds will could well produce flash flooding anywhere. The
recent burn areas will be most vulnerable to flash flooding and
debris flows. A flash flood watch is in effect for much of the
area through 8 PM this evening.

The chance of showers will continue Sun but there could see some
peeks of sunshine at times. Mostly cloudy skies with just a slight
chance of showers can be expected Sun night.

The models are in pretty good agreement that an upper level
low/trof and surface frontal system will move down the CA coast
and into the fcst area on Mon and Mon night. The main frontal band
with light to moderate rain should move thru the area from NW to
SE thru the day Mon then as the upper level low center moves in
Mon night into Tue there will be lingering showers. A few
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as well.

Preliminary rainfall amounts tonight through Sun is expected to
be in the 0.50 inch to 1.50 inch range for the coast and vlys, and
in the 1 to 2.5 inch range in the mtns. For Sun nigh thru Tue,
the entire area should see about 0.50 to 1.00 inch, with locally
higher amounts up to 2 inches in the mtns.

Snow levels will remain pretty high thru Mon then lower to 5500
to 6000 feet by Tue, with any snow of a few inches possible at
higher elevations.

As with almost all rain events this late in the year max temps
across the csts and vlys will be in upper 50s to mid 60s all three
days or 6 to 12 degrees blo normal.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...15/202 PM.

The models are in generally good agreement that a dry NW flow
aloft will prevail Wed with clear to partly cloudy skies and
milder temperatures.

Another system is slated to affect the state on Thursday and
Friday. Since the storm is so far out in time, there is
considerable disagreement on the exact timing and intensity of
this system. Best to wait a little bit before talking about
specifics and just realize that it could be wet couple of days.

Next Sat is trending dry and milder. However, the models are
still not in complete agreement on that as the GFS shows some
lingering pcpn while the EC is dry.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0614Z.

At 0458Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a deep
moist layer up to at least 10000 feet.

Overall, low confidence in 00Z TAF package. Cig/Vis will likely
vary frequently through 20Z. Cigs will mostly be between BKN-
OVC015-025, but IFR and even brief LIFR values are possible. Fair
confidence that cigs after 20Z will be BKN-OVC040-060.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF through 20Z. Cig/Vis will likely
vary frequently through 20Z. Cigs will mostly be between BKN-
OVC015-025, but BKN008 conds are possible as are BKN035 conds.
Better confidence in cig fcst after 20Z. Lower confidence in east
wind fcst with a 30 percent chc of an 8kt east wind component
through 16Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 20Z. Cig/Vis will likely
vary frequently through 20Z. Cigs will mostly be between BKN-
OVC015-025, but BKN008 conds are possible as are BKN035 conds.
Better confidence in cig fcst after 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...15/732 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Sunday night, high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For
Monday through Tuesday, high confidence in combination of SCA
level winds and seas. For Wednesday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels. On Thursday, there is a 30-40%
chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence
in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday night, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday through
Tuesday, there is a 50-60% chance of a combination of SCA level
winds and seas. For Wednesday through Thursday, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday night,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Monday through Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level
winds with the highest chances across the Santa Barbara Channel.
For Wednesday through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.

There is a 20% chance of thunderstorms across the coastal waters
south of Point Conception through tonight. Any thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, small hail,
dangerous cloud to surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds,
locally rough seas, and possible waterspouts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox