408
FXUS66 KLOX 041053
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
253 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...04/251 AM.

Mostly clear skies, dry conditions, a general warming trend and
periods of offshore winds are likely through the week. Warmest
and windiest conditions likely Friday-Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...04/251 AM.

A weak trof that brought some showers to the Central Coast last
evening is now moving out of the area. A small ridge will follow
in its footsteps today. That will transition to dry NW flow
Thursday. A sharper ridge will then push into nrn CA on Fri. This
will switch the upper level flow to the NE. 1 to 2 mb of offshore
flow will develop today and then increase to about 4 mb by Friday.

There will be some low clouds and dense fog across the Central
Coast early this morning, but aside from the that skies will be
mostly clear through the short term.

The csts and vlys will warm a little today as the offshore flow
starts up. Cooler air moving in to the far interior will bring 4
to 8 degrees of cooling to that area. Max temps will end up 3 to 6
degrees blo normal today. Thursday will be warmer as the offshore
flow kicks in and hgts rise a little. Look for 4 to 6 degrees of
warming across the csts and vlys and 2 or 3 degrees over the rest
of the area. Friday will see another 2 to 4 degrees of warming
which will bring max temps across the csts/vlys into the upper 70s
and lower 80s.

There will not be too much wind today and only weak offshore
canyon winds on Thursday. Friday`s winds will be stronger and more
noticeable but should remain below advisory level.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...04/251 AM.

Ridging and offshore flow will continue over the weekend. While
There will be canyon winds each morning there is only a 30-40
percent chc that they will reach low end advisory criteria. Skies
will be mostly clear through the period. Max temps should bump up
another 2 to 3 degrees Saturday and then change little on Sunday.
Weekend max temps will be in the lower to mid 80s for almost all
of the csts/vlys or 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

A high hgt dry upper low forms under the ridge and aporaches and
moves over Srn CA during the Mon/Tue time frame. It should have
little effect on the sensable weather. The more important factor
will be the weakening of the offshore flow. There should be enough
to keep the low clouds away, but not enough to prevent an earlier
sea breeze. Max temps should cool 2 or 3 degrees each day. Despite
this cooling max, max temps will remain at least 5 degrees over
normal.

It should then remain dry through Wed the 11th. After that all
long range mdls, AI, Deterministic and Ensemble all show an
increased chc of rain from the 12th to the 19th.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1051Z.

At 0832Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor any inversion.

Moderate confidence in KPRB/KSBP/KSMX with a slow rise to VFR
conds likely.

For all other sites, high confidence in VFR TAFs and moderate
confidence in winds.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. Any easterly wind component
tonight is expected to remain below 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...04/1241 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Saturday, high confidence in combination
of SCA level winds and seas across all of the Outer Waters. On
Sunday, winds and seas are expected to drop below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. This afternoon through Thursday,
there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and
evening hours. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20% chance of
SCA level north to northeast winds, mainly in the overnight and
morning hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels, except
for SCA winds in the western Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon
and evening. For Friday through Saturday, there is a 20-30%
chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa
Monica in the night and morning hours. On Sunday, winds and seas
are expected to remain below SCA levels.

Through Thursday, the gusty winds will likely result in choppy,
short-period, seas.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PST this evening for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST early this
      morning for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PST Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox