833
FXUS66 KLOX 291100
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
400 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...29/232 AM.

Seasonably warm temperatures today will shift to dangerously hot
by Friday through the weekend as the next heat wave arrives. Some
cooling is expected next week though temperatures will remain
above normal. Dangerous surf conditions are expected at beaches
this week south of Point Conception due swells from a tropical
storm west of Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...29/356 AM.

The marine layer is making a return along many coastal areas this
morning as weak troughing develops over the West Coast. However,
temperatures will remain seasonably warm today and tomorrow
before high pressure over Arizona expands west Friday and through
the weekend. Models have been very consistent over the last week
showing 500mb heights rising to 600dam (at or above the 99th
percentile) over the interior California deserts by Saturday and
possibly as far west as the coast. The extreme pressure being
exerted from aloft will force temperatures at the surface to rise
to around 10 degrees above normal in many areas, resulting in
significant heat stress, especially in areas that have limited or
no access to cooling sources. Current forecast highs are near or
exceeding record temperatures in many areas, especially Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures along the Central Coast are cooler
compared to other areas but even there forecasts are close to or
exceeding daily records.

One positive aspect is that humidities have been decreasing as
tropical moisture remains east and south of the area. This is
allowing overnight temperatures overnight to cool a few degrees,
providing some relief. However models are strongly suggesting
increasing moisture aloft later this week and weekend during the
peak of the heat wave, which will further exacerbate the heat
stress over the area.

A large south swell from Hurricane Genevieve will further enhance
large wave and potentially deadly rip currents for some area
beaches. See Beaches discussion below and associated coastal
hazard products for details.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...29/400 AM.

A slow cooling trend is expected to begin Sunday though
temperatures will still be 5-10 degrees above normal and
increasing moisture aloft will limit overnight cooling and keep
humidities higher than normal. And in addition, high pressure
aloft will continue to dominate the weather pattern along the West
coast all of next week, meaning highs will remain above normal
for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0207Z.

At 2134Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 4200 feet with a temperature of 24 degrees
Celsius.

For 00Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, and KPMD and KWJF.

For KSBP, KSMX, KOXR, KLAX, KSMO, KLGB and KCMA, moderate confidence
in 00Z TAFs as timing of return of CIG/VSBY restrictions could be
+/- 2 hours of current forecasts. Cigs may briefly reach KBUR and
KVNY.

For KSBA, lower confidence in cigs. There is a 20% chance of IFR
conditions 10Z-17Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 30%
chance that CIGs could return at MVFR levels tonight. No
significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF with cigs possible after
10Z.

&&

.MARINE...28/814 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Local gusts to 35 knots will affect the outer waters
through around midnight. Otherwise, through Sunday, high
confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
winds and seas. There is also a 20-30% chance of Gale force winds
across western sections of PZZ670/673 Wednesday evening.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, there is a 60-80%
chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern
Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels through Sunday. The only exception will be the western
half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 60-80% chance of SCA
level winds through late tonight then a 30-50% chance of SCA
level winds Wednesday through Sunday in the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Seas are expected to hover near 8-10 feet across the waters away
from the coasts much of the week. There is a steep (short period)
NW swell/wind wave from the persistent winds. In addition, a
southerly swell from Hurricane Genevieve will continue across the
coastal waters through this weekend. This south swell may impact
south facing harbors, including Port San Luis.

&&

.BEACHES...28/808 PM.

An extended period of combined moderate to long period southerly
swells will continue through this week and into the upcoming
weekend. A long 17-20 second period SSW Southern Hemisphere swell
will continue to impact our area through mid week, then will be
enhanced by southerly swell from Category 5 Hurricane Genevieve,
moving into the coastal waters today.

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Wednesday morning
(except through Saturday along the Central Coast) due to the
increased risk of dangerous rip currents and elevated surf. There
have been numerous ocean rescues reported.

A High Surf Advisory remains is now in effect from Wednesday
morning through Saturday evening for the incoming southerly swell
due to Hurricane Genevieve (along with other southerly swells)
particularly for south facing beaches (such as from Manhattan
Beach to Port Hueneme along the Malibu Coast, and from Long Beach
to the Palos Verdes Peninsula). This swell will peak around 3-5
feet at 12-15 seconds from 160-180 degrees.

Additionally, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for
Wednesday evening through Friday evening for the Ventura and Los
Angeles County Coasts. High tides of 6.2-7.0 feet will peak in the
evening hours. In conjunction with the highest expected surf from
the Hurricane Genevieve southerly swell, the best potential for
minor coastal flooding impacts is expected Wednesday and Thursday
evening. Generally minor impacts are expected, such as pooling of
seawater over low lying coastal areas in susceptible areas.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM PDT
      Sunday for zones
      38-88-343>345-351>353-355>358-368>376-378-379-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 6 AM PDT early this
      morning for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Saturday for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to
      3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday afternoon
      for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM PDT Sunday
      for zones 341-342-347>350-354-362-366-367-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT
      Sunday for zone 380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM
      PDT Sunday for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Phillips/RAT
MARINE...RAT/CC
BEACHES...Lewis/RAT/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox