756
FXUS66 KLOX 312236
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
336 PM PDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.SYNOPSIS...31/232 PM.

Dangerously hot temperatures are expected through this weekend,
with potential for significant heat impacts. Some cooling is
expected next week, but temperatures will remain above normal.
Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected at many of the
beaches this weekend, as a result of swells from a tropical
cyclone located west of Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...31/1258 PM.

Today and tomorrow are expected to be the hottest days in this
heat wave as 500mb heights approach a rarely seen 600dam. If there
is any good news in this scenario is that onshore gradients are
expected to remain at least lightly onshore, allowing at least a
light seabreeze to bring in some cooling ocean air inland by
afternoon. Also a positive is that monsoon moisture is not
expected to be a factor so it won`t feel quite as sticky as last
weekend. But even with those factors, temperatures will still be
dangerously hot, especially away from the immediate coast, with
highs 5-10 degrees above normal. It`s highly recommended that any
outdoor activities be completed before 9 am and or after 7pm. And
always have a source of hydration. And keep in mind, since sea
surface temperatures are in the 70s south of Pt Conception,
overnight lows will continue to much warmer than normal, mostly in
the mid 60s to mid 70s, limiting overnight cooling in dwellings
within air conditioning. Saturday will be peak heat day in most
areas with highs around 107 in the western San Fernando Valley,
mid 90s downtown, and mid 80s to low 90s in the intermediate areas
between the coast and the valleys.

Winds will mostly be under 15 mph, except some evening Sundowner
winds across southwest Santa Barbara County up to 35 mph and up to
30 mph in the desert.

A large south swell from Tropical Cyclone Genevieve will further
enhance large wave and potentially deadly rip currents for some
area beaches.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...31/1255 PM.

The slow cooling trend will continue into next week, though
temperatures will still be 3-6 degrees above normal. In addition,
monsoon moisture may return by the middle part of next week,
which will limit overnight cooling and keep humidities higher than
normal. Therefore, heat hazards are likely at times next week.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1919Z.

At 1746Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 600 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was 3200 feet with a temp of 28 degrees
Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conds for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, KWJF.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSBP, KSMX and KSBA. There is a
20-30% chance of low clouds at these sites, and in this case 40%
chance of LIFR conds overnight.

Low to moderate confidence in KOXR, KCMA and the LA Coastal
sites. If low clouds affect these sites, IFR to LIFR conds are
likely. The timing could be off by at least +/- 2 hours, and CIGs
could form and dissipate at times between around 06Z to 15Z.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 18Z TAF. The timing of
flight cat changes may be off +/- 2 hours from TAF, and lowest
cigs may be off +/- 200 feet. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conds expected.

&&

.MARINE...31/107 PM.

For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas
will occur through this weekend before beginning to subside early
next week. Winds will generally peak at around 30 knots but
occasional gusts to 35 knots will be possible, mainly during the
evening hours through Saturday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, there is an 60-80%
chance of SCA winds each afternoon and evening through Saturday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there is a 40%
chance of SCA winds each afternoon and evening through this
weekend over the western one-third of the Santa Barbara Channel.

Seas of 7-10 feet will impact the outer waters into this weekend,
due to a combination of long-period southerly swell from a
distant tropical cyclone and shorter- period northwesterly
swell/wind- waves caused by the moderate to locally strong NW
winds. As a result, steep, hazardous seas will be common,
especially over the outer waters, extending to nearshore waters
off the Central Coast.

&&

.BEACHES...31/158 PM.

Distant Tropical Cyclone Genevieve is generating S-SE swells that
will continue to affect the beaches into this weekend. A High
Surf Advisory remains in effect for the south facing beaches of
LA County, with a Beach Hazards Statement for the Ventura Coast
northward to the Central Coast. In LA County, in spite of lower
wave heights, south facing beaches are still seeing frequent,
strong and hazardous rip currents so will leave the High Surf
Advisory in effect there. For Ventura County (and SBA South Coast)
surf heights are low enough and rip currents mainly moderate.
Further north, strong rip currents are likely along the south to
southwest facing beaches of the Central Coast.

Use extra caution if you are at the beach, and be sure to ask
lifeguards if and where it is safe to swim.

Please reference the Coastal Hazard Message for details
on High Surf and Coastal Flood Advisories, as well as Beach
Hazards Statements. Dangerous rip currents will be of particular
concern this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...31/334 PM.

Today through at least Sunday, widespread elevated to brief
critical conditions will be common away from immediate coasts due to very
hot, dry, and locally breezy conditions with an increased risk for large
plume dominated fire behavior and rapid fire growth due to deep mixing
heights. For today and Sunday, mixing heights of 10,000 to 14,000
feet are expected across the interior, peaking on Saturday at
12,000 to 16,000 feet. If any fire ignitions occur across the
interior, these deeper mixing heights allow for large vertical
plume growth, especially in the mountains and foothills, where
Live Fuel moisture levels are approaching critical levels.

Other factors that will add to the fire weather risk across the
interior today through Sunday, will be locally breezy southwest to
north winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph, which could
increase by another 5 mph by Sunday afternoon/evening as onshore
flow increases, as well as widespread and long duration single
digit humidities. As a result, expecting at least a few hours
of wind/RH overlap to reach brief critical fire weather
conditions across many interior areas through the weekend, and a
few isolated mountain and Antelope Valley foothill locations
could reach 6+ hour durations of wind/RH overlap. In addition,
there will be very poor to poor overnight humidity recoveries,
especially in the mountains and foothills where some locations may
continue to have humidities in the teens.

Very warm and dry conditions will also impact southwest Santa
Barbara County, with weak Sundowner winds likely (with gusts 25 to
40 mph from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass) this evening and Saturday
evening, with humidities falling to between 15 and 25 percent.
Very warm and dry conditions will likely persist much of next week
across the interior, likely leading to more elevated to brief
critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 5 PM PDT Saturday for
      zones
      38-88-343>345-351>353-355>358-368>376-378-379-381>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Saturday for
      zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday afternoon
      for zones 340-346-349-350-354-356. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Saturday for zones
      341-342-347>350-354-362-366-367-377-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Saturday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RM/MW
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...Ciliberti
BEACHES...Ciliberti
FIRE...Gomberg
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox