897
FXUS66 KLOX 232030
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
130 PM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.SYNOPSIS...23/524 AM.

A relatively quiet Friday will transition into a weak Santa Ana
Wind event this weekend, bringing drier conditions and warmer
temperatures to the region into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...23/112 PM.

Typical post-storm northwest flow has developed following the
passing of the storm which generally isn`t favorable for precip
due to the Transverse ranges, except for the north facing
mountains. However, can`t rule out a stray light shower just about
anywhere through the afternoon.

Otherwise, a return to dry and warmer weather is expected over the
coming days. Pressure gradients have already started to trend
towards offshore and forecast pressure gradients have been pretty
steady peaking around -3mb. Wind support aloft has increased
slightly over the last few model cycles but remains pretty
marginal overall at around 30-35kt. This would typically result in
peak wind gusts in the mountains around 35-45 mph and 25-35 mph in
the LA/Ventura Valleys which is not quite worthy of a wind
advisory. Temps will get a boost though with the downsloping off
the mountains with highs returning to the 80s in the valleys and
mid 70s to low 80s most everywhere else through at least early
next week. Winds will peak Fri/Sat then weaken thereafter.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...23/129 PM.

A slow cooling trend is expected to begin around next Tuesday as
an upper level low drops out of the Pac NW. This will begin the
turn back towards onshore flow and in turn slowly cooling
temperatures through the end of the week. It still looks favorable
for rain to return to southern California late next week with the
most likely day being next Saturday (Halloween) or Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1712Z.

At 1633Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Generally high confidence in VFR TAFs, with very brief MVFR cigs
possible at times for all sites except for KWJF/KPMD through this
tonight. 10% chance for -SHRA at KBUR/KVNY through this evening,
5% chance for remaining LA County sites.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. VFR conds expected with brief
periods of MVFR cigs possible through tonight. 5% chance of brief
-SHRA through this evening. Good confidence that any east wind
 component remains below 8 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. VFR conds expected with brief
periods of MVFR cigs possible through tonight. 10% chance of
brief -SHRA through this evening.

&&

.MARINE...23/1254 PM.

Gusty west to northwest Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will
impact most of the waters today through tonight, including the
western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, potentially extending
into the eastern portion as well. Localized gusts to 35 kt may
occur across portions of the outer waters during this time frame.
Seas near 10 feet will continue through late tonight across
portions of the outer waters. Otherwise, relatively quiet
conditions are expected through the weekend except for localized
SCA northeast wind gusts nearshore from Point Mugu through the
Malibu coast in the morning hours Saturday & Sunday.

Northwest winds will increase next week, with around a 50% chance
of SCA level winds Monday through at least mid-week.

&&

.BEACHES...23/1254 PM.

Very high tides between 7.5 and at least 8.0 feet (roughly 1.1-1.5
feet above astronomical predictions) are expected during the
morning hours of Sunday- Thursday from Los Angeles (highest tides)
north to the Central Coast. Due to the very high tides, moderate
coastal flooding impacts can be expected at any low lying beach
areas, not just south facing beaches as has been the case the last
couple of months.

While we generally aren`t seeing much in the way of any
significant swells during this period, there is a small potential
for a slightly larger, long period swell from the south direction
Wednesday-Thursday that could create enough energy to produce
some more impactful coastal flooding.

Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect Sunday-Thursday. There is a
low potential for targeted Coastal Flooding Warnings if a larger
swell develops and produces elevated surf on top of the very high
tides.

Potential Impacts:
 -Minor to moderate flooding of sea water is likely over
  vulnerable low-lying coastal areas including over beach parking
  lots, bike paths, normally sandy beaches, and harbor walkways.
 -Moderate to significant beach erosion is likely.
 -Isolated damage of structures due to sea water inundation is
  possible.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM PDT
      Thursday for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Black

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox