771
FXUS66 KLOX 012121
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
221 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...01/131 PM.

A major and long lasting heat wave will begin Friday and last
through all of next week at least with with dangerously hot
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...01/216 PM.

***A VERY DANGEROUS AND LONG LASTING HEAT WAVE FRIDAY THROUGH AT
 LEAST NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN
 OCTOBER***

No significant changes to the short or long term forecasts. A
dangerous heat wave will begin Friday and last through at least
next week as a strong high pressure system sets up over the
eastern Pacific and West coast. Pressure gradients are already
starting to weaken today and that trend will continue through
Saturday morning, resulting in offshore gradients to the east and
north in the -2 to -4 range. So while this is an offshore
scenario in October, it`s not a traditional Santa Ana as the upper
support is not sufficient for persistent gusty winds, though there
will be brief periods of some sub advisory level north to
northeast winds at times. However, in typical Santa Ana fashion,
this heat wave will include the beaches, at least south of Pt
Conception.

Temperatures will ramp up quickly Friday by 5-10 degrees and
"peak" Saturday, though "peak" is misleading because day to day
high temps will likely not change much at least through early next
week. During this heat wave, warmer valley highs are expected to
be 102-107, Downtown LA 99-103, and coastal areas from Santa
Barbara to LA 90-98. These are 15-20 degrees above normal.

It will be warming in SLO and northern Santa Barbara Counties as
well but delayed by a day. By the weekend expecting highs away
from the beaches to reach the low to mid 90s and lower 100s in the
interior. Heat advisories have been issued for these areas
Saturday and Sunday. These may need to be extended in certain
areas next week but models have been showing just enough cooling
early next week to allow the advisories to drop off.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...01/219 PM.

This period will feel a lot like this coming weekend, though
there are still some model solutions indicating a little more
upper level northeast wind support and subsequently even hotter
temperatures. This would be in the Wed-Fri period, so there is the
potential for even hotter weather later next week with a better
chance of breaking daily temperature records. Longer range models
are starting to at least hint at some cooling next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1707Z.

At 1625Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was near 2900 ft with a maximum temp of 26 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF, KPMD, KPRB, KBUR, & KVNY.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of change groups
may be off +/- 2 hours. CIG height accuracy +/- 300 ft of fcst.
Minimum VSBYs may be off by 1SM or 2SM.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times
of IFR CIGs 008 (+/- 200ft) may be off by 2 hrs. No significant
east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...01/1244 PM.

Generally quiet conditions expected across the coastal waters
for the forseeable future. Localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
gusts near 21 kts may occur each afternoon and evening near Point
Conception, off the coast of Point Dume, and across the San Pedro
Channel.

&&

.BEACHES...01/1245 PM.

While we will get a break from the coastal flooding concerns for
the rest of the week, another hurricane swell (from Rachel) will
likely bring a larger-than-Polo south swell to southern California
for the early to middle part of next week. Thankfully tides at
that time will not be extreme, but they should be around 6.5 feet
which is high enough to cause some concern, but it all depends on
how big the surf ends up. Stay tuned for future updates.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM PDT
      Thursday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT
      Sunday for zones 341>345-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
BEACHES...RK/DB
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox