462
FXUS66 KLOX 261700
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1000 AM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...26/154 AM.

High temperatures will remain above normal through today with
areas of low clouds and fog this morning. Substantial cooling is
expected Sunday and Monday. Beach impacts from Tropical Cyclones
well south of the region will be possible Monday and Tuesday in
the form of high surf and possible beach erosion. A significant
warming trend is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...26/307 AM.

Not too much change in the forecast today compared to yesterday.
Only a few areas are seeing marine layer clouds this morning, and
really only South of Point Conception. These clouds may expand a
bit more by sunrise, but will be pretty limited to the coasts and
inland coasts thanks to some light offshore flow due to surface
pressure gradients trending offshore. These gradient trends are
leading to a mini Santa Ana- like pattern for LA/Ventura, with
light winds and 3-6 degrees warmer for these areas. High
temperatures today for areas south of Point Conception/away from
the coast will range in the 80s and to high 90s, with
temperatures near the coast and north of Point Conception in the
70s and 80s.

A bit of an odd situation synoptically starting Sunday, with quite
a bit of uncertainty. An upper level trough will start to drop
into the region from the NW, and continue to move slowly through
the region into next week. Meanwhile, two strong hurricanes are
currently affecting the eastern Pacific (Polo and Odalys), well to
the south of California. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in
the forecast due to the uncertainties in the evolution and tracks
of these storms. The low pressure system may funnel some of the
moisture from the into the region, however there is quite a spread
in the ensembles as some members show Precipitable Water values
(PWATs) of 0.5 inches, and some show PWATs up to near 2 inches.
As a result, there may be possibility of light, spotty showers for
areas south of Point Conception starting Sunday. While the
official forecast does have a slight chance of rain for interior
areas Sunday and Monday, there also is the possibility that most
of the moisture stays south of Los Angeles County. As for
temperatures, a cool down is expected Sunday and Monday with
temperatures 10 to 20 degrees lower by Monday compared to today.

Ultimately, the biggest local impacts from the hurricanes to the
south are still expected to be confined to the beaches with
increasing swells from the hurricanes, though this is also quite
uncertain pending the track of both hurricanes.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...26/310 AM.

Still a lot of uncertainty in the weather forecast Tuesday and
beyond. More than 50 percent of the models are indicating high
pressure building over the state behind the exitting trough, with
offshore flow and a fairly substantial warming trend through at
least Thursday. There`s at least a 30 to 40 percent chance of near
100 degree temperatures in the valleys and similar chances for
Downtown LA and San Luis Obispo reaching 90 or higher. There`s
also a lower but still significant chance of temperatures 5-10
degrees cooler than that. Will have to wait to see how the
hurricanes track before having much confidence in the longer
range.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1700Z.

At 1604Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2700 feet with a temperature of 25 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KWJF, and KPMD.

Low confidence in flight cats tonight for remaining TAFs. Chance
for no low clouds tonight at KSBP (50%) and KSMX (30%). There is a
20-40% chance for IFR-MVFR cigs tonight at remaining sites,
highest for KLAX/KLGB/KSMO. South of Point Conception cigs would
likely be patchy and may frequently bounce between SCT and BKN if
they form.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 06Z, then low confidence in
flight cat thereafter. 40% chance for BKN007-012 conds 10Z-17Z.
If cigs form they may bounce between BKN and SCT frequently.

Moderate to high confidence in TAF through 18Z Sat and
after 03Z Sun, otherwise high confidence. CIGs may scatter and
reform several times due to high level clouds this morning. There
is a 30% chance of BKN008-012 CIGs after 03Z Sun. High confidence
in no significant east win component.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...26/840 AM.

Through this weekend, moderate to high confidence in Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) winds and steep seas affecting the outer waters.
The current SCAs will likely be extended through Tuesday night.
Gale force gusts will be possible at times, especially Monday
afternoon and evening across the southern waters. Nearshore along
the Central coast will see SCA winds and steep seas this
afternoon into evening.

Moderate to high confidence in widespread gusty winds Monday into
Tuesday extending into the nearshore waters at times, with the
highest confidence in the Central Coast waters and Santa Barbara
Channel.

Southerly swells from Hurricanes Odalys (SSW) and Polo (SSE) will
affect the region this weekend through the middle of next week.
These swells will create larger waves and surf nearshore, which
could impact some harbor entrances, especially Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...26/858 AM.

Southerly swells from Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will affect the
waters this weekend through the middle of next week. This is a
complex scenario with two hurricanes so close in proximity, with
one of them (Odalys) poorly handled by our computer models.
Another complexity is the relatively short window of time that
Polo is far enough west for its waves to have a clear path to
southern California. This means that the swells will have a
narrow window of time to line up with the high tides. Lastly, some
south-facing shores are extra vulnerable because of the lingering
erosion effects from Hurricane Marie earlier this month.

While the surf heights will likely be in the 4 to 7 foot range
for south facing beaches Sunday through Tuesday, there is a plus
or minus in that potential of 2 feet or so due to the
complications mentioned above. High tides will steadily build each
day and peak Monday and Tuesday, likely reaching around 7 feet
(MLLW) - which is higher by almost a foot over astronomical tides
due to ongoing effects of El Nino.

There is a significant concern of Coastal Flooding over vulnerable
south-facing beaches as a result, but the magnitude is still
uncertain. The areas of most concern include Avalon, Long Beach,
Malibu and Santa Barbara. The reasonable worst-case scenario is
for impacts similar to those from Hurricane Marie, but the most
likely outcome is for impacts to be a step less. The one exception
being Avalon on Catalina Island, as the swells from Hurricane
Polo will be more from a southeasterly direction than with Marie,
which they are more exposed to. The same goes for Santa Barbara
Harbor where the risk is less but still present.

South-facing beaches should plan for shallow flooding of seawater
over low lying beach walkways, parking lots, and roads as well as
potential for significant beach erosion. Very localized damage to
structures is also possible in the most vulnerable areas. With
all that stated, there is a potential that impacts will be minimal
if the lower-end surf outcome materializes.

Due to rather high uncertainty, the Beach Hazard Statements will
continue through Wednesday afternoon. This covers the coastline
from Santa Barbara South coast down to LA county, including
Catalina island. A decision to upgrade to Coastal Flood Advisory
will be made today or Sunday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon
      for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KL/MW/KL
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox