772
FXUS66 KLOX 141721
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1021 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...14/1248 AM.

Much cooler than normal temperatures will gradually to near normal
early next week, with night through morning marine layer clouds
shrinking in coverage each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...14/842 AM.

***UPDATE***

Rather deep marine inversion this morning, from around 3400 feet
deep at LAX to near 3900 feet deep at VBG. Low clouds covered the
coast, vlys including deeper inland vlys, and coastal slopes this
morning. At mid-morning, the low clouds were starting to dissipate
back toward the coast and this trend should continue thru midday,
with most areas having mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Good
onshore flow can be expected this afternoon with breezy to gusty SW
to W winds. Temps will be about 4-10 deg cooler-than-normal across
the region today, with highs from the 70s along the coast to the 80s
inland, except around 90 in the Antelope Vly.

Current forecast is on track and no updates are expected this
morning.

***From Previous Discussion***

The weak troughing along the West Coast has indeed brought much
cooler than mid-August normal temperatures to Southwest
California. A large area of high pressure will begin to build
further west, slowly but steadily increasing 500 mb heights over
Southwest California. In conjunction with weakening onshore flow,
temperatures will begin to rise each day. Although we will see
the gradual warming trend kicking off today, temperatures are
still forecast to remain below seasonal normals through the
weekend.

The very deep marine layer has yet again spread all the way into
interior SLO and Santa Barbara Counties, and it will continue to
move deeper in the the valleys south of Point Conception. In fact,
clouds are already making their way into Santa Clarita Valley.
The marine layer depth and thus extent of inland coverage will
decrease each day due to the increasing 500 mb heights and
weakening onshore flow, and likely only the coasts and some lower
valleys will see marine layer clouds come Sunday. The absence of
morning low cloud coverage will also help accelerate the warming
over the valleys, while coastal areas will see the smallest
warming.

Due to the position of the trough, morning drizzle is possible
through the weekend, as is afternoon mountain convection (10%
chance). The atmosphere has lost a lot of its juice in terms of
available mositure, so we will most likely just see a few cumulus
buildups.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...14/1248 AM.

A fairly benign pattern will continue through the forecast period,
although high temperatures will continue to warm to near seasonal
normals by mid-week and the large ridge of high pressure builds
further west until it eventually centers across the Southwestern
US. Any night through morning low clouds and fog should become
confined to the coast by Monday. While there is good agreement
amongst models through Wednesday, beginning Thursday there becomes
more disagreement in how the pattern will evolve into the weekend.
Some ensemble members suggest the ridging to continue and
potentially intensify, while others favor a troughing pattern
moving in and pushing the ridge to the east.

A northerly surface pressure gradient is forecast to develop
early next week, likely bringing gusty northerly winds across
southern Santa Barbara County and through the Interstate 5
Corridor. Advisory level Sundowner winds could develop during this
time, but there is some uncertainty in the timing and the actual
strength of the winds.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1721Z.

At 1649Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 4500 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs.  40-50% chance of no
clearing at KSBP/KSMX, respectively, and only a few hours of
clearing at KPRB. Arrival of MVFR cigs tonight may be off +/- 4
hours from forecast, lowest confidence south of Point Conception.
KSBP and KSMX may drop to IFR conds overnight Friday into
Saturday.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs should clear sometime
17Z-20Z. Arrival tonight may be +/- 3 hours off from forecast.
No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs should clear sometime
16Z-19Z. Arrival tonight may be off +/- 3 hours.

&&

.MARINE...14/812 AM.

High confidence that conditions will remain below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) criteria across all coastal waters through Saturday
morning. There is a 30-50% chance of SCA winds across the outer
waters and the western portion of the inner waters starting
Saturday afternoon, with the highest chances for the waters south
of Point Conception and the Santa Barbara Channel during the
afternoon/evening hours. Chances increase Sunday afternoon, and at
least SCA conds will continue through mid-week. Gusts of 30-35 kt
will be possible starting Monday, with highest likelihood around
Point Conception and the outer waters north of Point Sal. Seas
may approach 10 ft across portions of the Outer Waters Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis/Sirard
AVIATION...Lewis/KL
MARINE...Lund
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox