044
FXUS66 KLOX 250044
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
544 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...24/208 PM.

Marine layer clouds will affect the coast and valleys each night
and morning through next week, otherwise look for mostly clear
skies to prevail. Temperatures will be slightly below normal for
most areas into the early part of next week, then trend warmer
than normal for the second half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...24/209 PM.

Lingering stratocu were noted early this afternoon over portions
of the L.A./VTU coast and vlys for partly cloudy skies, and some
low clouds persisted on the SBA County Central Coast. Otherwise,
mostly sunny skies were noted. Little change can be expected for
the rest of the day. Breezy to gusty S to W winds will prevail
this afternoon, strongest in the Antelope Vly and adjacent
foothills. Temps this afternoon are forecast to be as much as
6-12 deg below seasonal norms in many areas, but only slightly
above normal for the L.A. County coast. High in the warmest inland
coast, vlys and foothills should top out in the 70s to near 80,
except lower 80s in the Antelope Vly.

Upper level troffiness over the forecast area today will be
replaced by weak upper level ridging on Sun, with H5 heights
increasing to around 581 dam. Another upper level trof will move
into the region by Mon afternoon. The trof will move slowly SE
and develop into a weak upper level low (579-580 dam at H5) over
far SW CA by Tue.

The marine layer pattern is going to persist tonight through Tue
with varying amounts of night and morning low clouds and fog
expected for the coast and vlys, altho the inland extent of the
low clouds should gradually lessen each night. Otherwise, mostly
clear skies can be expected across the region for the most part.

Strong onshore pressure gradients are expected to continue each
day. Areas of gusty onshore winds will continue, especially across
the Antelope Valley and adjacent foothills where gusts may reach
advisory level Sun evening. Gusty NW-N winds across southwestern
Santa Barbara County can be expected each evening, and may reach
Advisory levels Sunday and Monday nights.

Temps are forecast to be several deg below normal for many areas
each day, except a few deg above normal for interior areas and
deserts for Sun and Tue. Max temps for the warmest vlys and lwr
mtns should be in the mid 70s to mid 80s Sun, 70s to around 80 on
Mon, and upper 70s and 80s Tue.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...24/210 PM.

Fairly complex upper level pattern during the extended period, but
this results in only minor differences in and GFS deterministic
and mean ensembles. Weak upper level troffiness should linger over
SW CA on Wed, then a relatively weak upper level low will develop
along or just off the nrn Baja coast on Thu. This upper level low
will meander around the nrn Baja region Fri and Sat. At the same
time, upper level ridging will develop and linger over nrn CA.

The proximity of the upper level low will help to keep the marine
layer pattern and onshore pressure gradients over the forecast
area during the extended period. The marine inversion should be
deepest Tue night into Wed morning with plenty of low clouds from
the coast to vlys, including the Santa Clarita Vly. The marine
layer depth should lower gradually Thu thru Sat, with just mainly
coastal areas expected to have the low clouds Fri night/Sat
morning. Otherwise and elsewhere, mostly clear skies will prevail
across the region Wed thru Sat.

A typical diurnal wind pattern can be expected during the extended
period with weak flow at night and breezy to gusty S to W onshore
flow each afternoon and early evening.

Temps on Wed are expected to be from a few deg below normal to
near normal for the coast and vlys and from near normal to a few
deg above normal for inland areas. It will then turn warmer to
several deg above normal for the most part Thu thru Sat. Fri
looks to be the warmest day during the extended period with highs
in the warmest inland areas reaching the mid 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0043Z.

At 2230Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was around 2600 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Low confidence in TAF for KPRB with a 40 percent chc of IFR conds
12Z-17Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX. Flight Cat changes
could be off by +/- 1 hour and cigs off by +/- 200 ft.

Low confidence in TAF for KSBA with a 40 percent chc of no low
clouds. If Low clouds do arrive they could arrive as early as 12Z.

Moderate confidence in the rest of the TAFs. Flight cat changes
could be off by +/- 2 hours and cigs could be up to 500 ft lower
than fcst.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. BKN025 conds may arrive as
early as 03Z. There is a 20 percent chc of SCT conds arriving at
19Z and a 25 percent chc of being delayed to 22Z. There is a 30
percent chc of BKN015 conds. Good confidence that any east wind
component will be under 7 kt..
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of cigs tonight may be
off +/- 2 hours. There is a 20 percent chc of BKN008 conds 11Z-16Z

&&

.MARINE...24/128 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds through Memorial Day weekend and into early
Tuesday, with brief lulls possible each morning. Seas are expected
to remain below SCA criteria through mid-week. However, there
could be localized SCA level seas at times, with highest chances
Monday evening into Tuesday. Thereafter, moderate chances for SCA
winds through Friday, and seas may build to SCA levels towards
the end of the workweek.

For the Inner Waters along the Central Coast, moderate confidence
in SCA winds each afternoon and evening through Memorial Day
Weekend (60-80% chance). Seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels through at least mid-week.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA
level winds across the western and southern portions of the
Channel, including the waters around the Channel Islands, each
afternoon and evening over the remainder of Memorial Day Weekend.
There is a 10% chance for SCA level winds reaching the Ventura
County coastline from the Ventura Harbor to Point Mugu each day.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
high confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels
this weekend. Local gusts up to 20 kt may occur in the afternoon
through evenings today through Monday near Malibu, through the San
Pedro Channel, and in the far western portion of the zone.
Thereafter, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels through at least mid-week.

&&

.BEACHES...24/736 AM.

A long period south-southwest swell will bring elevated surf
conditions up to 6 feet along with a high risk for hazardous rip
currents for some south facing beaches over Memorial Day weekend.
Considering the expected high beach attendance for the holiday,
ocean rescues may be numerous. If you plan on swimming in the
ocean, be sure to swim near an occupied lifeguard tower.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Monday night
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Black/Lewis
BEACHES...Black
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox