Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 200012
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
512 PM PDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...19/509 PM.

High pressure in place over the region will bring above normal
temperatures with fair skies through the week, except for near
persistent conditions near the coast with night through morning
low clouds and fog. A cooling trend is expected over the weekend
into early next week as the high weakens.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...19/142 PM.

Marine layer continues to shrink under building high pressure
aloft but will remain solid along the coast the next few days.
This will keep beaches cooler but away from the coast temps will
be climbing into the 80s and 90s, and farther inland areas like
interior SLO/SB Counties and the Antelope Valley there will be
plenty of triple digit temperatures the next few days. The ridge
does weaken slightly Thursday as a trough pushes onshore across
the Pac NW and this probably will lead to a degree or two of
cooling but may not even be noticeable to most. With the marine
layer shrinking to 1000` or less there will likely be some patchy
dense fog, especially north of Pt Conception.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...19/152 PM.

The ridge gets knocked down a little Saturday as a trough drops
into the Great Basin. Onshore flow will be increasing as well both
west/east and south/north so a stronger and earlier sea breeze
will definitely be cutting into the temperatures over the weekend
despite heights staying at or above 590dm. Temperatures will more
or less level off Sunday/Monday at near to slightly above seasonal
norms as the sea breeze can only cool temps so much with the air
mass aloft still being very warm. Marine layer will push a little
further inland but the subsidence and warm air aloft will keep
clouds mostly confined to coastal areas. Overall a very quiet
pattern. Only concern might be with the increasing onshore flow
and still warm and dry conditions inland leading to an enhanced
fire risk.

&&

.AVIATION...20/0010Z.

At 23Z, the marine layer depth was around 1400 feet deep at KLAX.
The top of the inversion was near 3500 feet with a temperature
around 23 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. LIFR to IFR
conditions will likely develop at most coastal terminals through
12Z. There is a chance of LIFR conditions at valley terminals
between 10Z and 16Z. Conditions should improve one category
between 15Z and 16Z. There is a chance of IFR to MVFR conditions
lingering into Wednesday afternoon, highest at Ventura County
coastal terminals.

KLAX...There is a 80 percent chance of IFR to MVFR conditions
developing as soon as 02Z or as late as 08Z. There is a 30
percent chance of IFR to MVFR conditions lingering until as late
as 19Z, but more likely between 16Z and 18Z.

KBUR...There is a 30 percent chance of LIFR conditions between
10Z and 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...19/131 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. There
is an 80% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest
winds today through Saturday with the strongest winds during the
afternoon and evening hours. The SCA has been extended through Fri
night.

For the Inner Waters, high confidence in current forecast. For the
waters north of Point Sal, there is a 70% chance of SCA level
northwest winds each afternoon/evening today through Friday. For
the waters south of Point Conception, winds and seas are expected
to remain below SCA levels through Saturday although there is a
30% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon/evening across the
western half of the Santa Barbara Channel.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (FRI-TUE).

No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...STu/Hall

weather.gov/losangeles


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