699
FXUS66 KLOX 212054
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
154 PM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.SYNOPSIS...21/1215 PM.

Hotter than normal conditions will dominate the foreseeable
future. The hot daytime and warm night conditions will bring
elevated risks for heat illness. Thursday through Sunday will
generally be the hottest of the next seven days. Gusty north winds
expected Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...21/129 PM.

Very warm conditions materialized on the Central Coast today,
thanks in large part to the decaying tropical system just to the
west crushing the marine layer and cooling onshore flow. These
features should return back to normal tomorrow.

A huge area of high pressure, currently centered over Nebraska
and affecting most of the western and southern United States, will
dominate our weather for several days. The core of the high will
wobble to the south tomorrow, then towards the west Thursday
through Saturday and eventually settling over New Mexico and
Arizona. Meanwhile, the prevailing mid-level flow will shift from
southerly today to northerly by Thursday. These two ingredients
will drive a significant warm up that will weakly start tomorrow,
but really kick in Thursday. High temperatures of 97 to 107 will
be common for most valleys and lower mountains by Friday, with
highs of 85 to 95 over inland coastal areas. Beaches will be a
mixed bag depending on how the marine layer responds, but with
warmer than normal water temperatures, it will remain rather muggy
and unpleasant.

Decided to convert all of the Extreme Heat Watches to Heat
Advisories, except for the Antelope Valley which is now in a low-
end Extreme Heat Warning. Most of these heat hazards are in effect
from Wednesday through Monday. One could justify some localized
Warnings in the Advisory for a day or two, but went with a long-
duration Advisory to simplify the message. While high
temperatures will generally only be 10 degrees above normal, there
are other factors in play for the Heat concerns. Minimum
temperatures will also be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, except 10
to 15 degrees above normal for the mountains and foothills. This
means that the overnight relief that many depend on to cool their
homes and their bodies will be less than usual. The other factor
considered is the duration. We look locked into above normal
temperatures for the foreseeable future, including this imminent
heat up that will last a good 5 days. With all that considered,
the risk for heat illness is high, especially for sensitive groups
like the very young, the very old, those without air
conditioning, and those active outdoors.

There will be a little wind to deal with as well, mainly over
southern Santa Barbara County, the I-5 Corridor, and the western
Antelope Valley Wednesday through Thursday or Friday Night.
Expecting northwesterly to north gusts of 30 to 50 mph in those
areas. A Wind Advisory was issued for southwest Santa Barbara
County where the winds will be the strongest of the bunch.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...21/139 PM.

The high pressure area will continue to dominate the southwest
United States through most of next week, which means warmer than
normal conditions will persist. The ensemble projections favor
stronger onshore flow starting Saturday which would signal some
drop in termperatures. The high pressure system changes little
however, and the mid-level flow does shift back to southerly which
will pull some tropical moisture back into the area at least over
the weekend. This tends to keep the marine layer at bay and makes
it feel warmer than it is. We also might see a shower or two in
the mountains. With all that said, expecting little change to the
general heat concerns through Sunday or Monday. After that there
is a range of outcomes in the finer details, but it will remain
warm, with another potential heat up towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1802Z.

Around 18Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3500 ft with a max temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, and KPRB. There is a
10 percent chance of LIFR-IFR conds at KPRB 08Z-17Z Wed.

High confidence in the remaining TAFs through 03Z, then low to
moderate confidence. There is a 30 percent chance of IFR/LIFR
cig/vis 04Z-18Z Wed for the coastal TAFs, and a 20 percent chance
10Z-15Z Wed for KBUR and KVNY.

KLAX...High confidence through 06Z, then low to moderate
confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chance of 2SM OVC005
conds 07Z-18Z Wed. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence through 09Z, then moderate confidence in
TAF. There is a 20 percent chance of 2SM OVC005 conds 07Z-18Z Wed.

&&

.MARINE...21/1157 AM.

Northwest winds will strengthen to Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels this afternoon, and will likely continue into the weekend.
Chances also increase for SCA level west to northwest winds
across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel each
afternoon and evening. Additionally, there is a 30% chance of Gale
Force wind gusts across the outer waters Wednesday afternoon
through at least Thursday, and 20% chance into the western
portion of the Santa Barbara Channel Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

A series of moderate period southerly swells will move through
the waters through the week and likely beyond, along with a long
period southern hemisphere swell arriving late this week. These
swells may impact south facing harbors, including the Port San
Luis area.

&&

.BEACHES...21/148 PM.

Over the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Fausto, located 700 NM SW of
southern Baja, will move WNW between 15 to 20 N latitude through
at least the next 5 days. This system is bringing an elevated
South-Southwesterly swell into the region. Therefore, High Surf
Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements are in effect through
Tuesday night.

After a brief break, an incoming long period, southern hemisphere
swell will arrive later this week/Thursday night and will
contribute to continued hazardous beach conditions late this week
and weekend. Additional Beach Hazards Statements will likely be
needed during this time.

Looking beyond the forecast period, a series of tropical systems
are forecast to develop off the coast of Mexico and move to the
northwest, likely producing multiple rounds of southerly swells
over the next couple of weeks.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM
      PDT Monday for zones
      38-88-342>345-348-351>353-355>358-368>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 5 PM PDT this
      afternoon for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM
      PDT Thursday for zones 349-350. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM PDT
      Thursday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM
      PDT Monday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RK
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Lund/Ciliberti
BEACHES...Lund/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox