173
FXUS66 KLOX 060304
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
804 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...05/330 PM.

Tropical Cyclone Marie, which will remain well offshore of SoCal,
will bring impacts to the region through at least early next
week. Rain is favored early Sunday morning into the evening,
focused over Los Angeles County. Rain will mostly be light to
moderate, but there is a 15 percent chance of thunderstorms for
Los Angeles County on Sunday. Increasing southerly swell will
create hazardous surf conditions at the coasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...05/803 PM.

***UPDATE***

The large scale pattern features a large upper level low centered
over coastal Oregon, and Hurricane Marie, 700 miles south of Point
Conception. Marie is forecast to move west to northwest over the
next couple of days, weakening below Hurricane strength Sunday
night. While Marie is not forecast to move close to southern
California, the impacts of this storm are already affecting the
area. Southerly  swells are creating large, hazardous surf and
rip currents at area beaches, and tropical moisture will move
over the area later tonight. Along with increasing mid to upper
level clouds, there will be rain chances beginning after around 5
AM Sunday through Sunday evening. Mostly light rain is expected,
and most of the rain in general will affect LA County.

In addition, there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over
LA County and the adjacent coastal waters Sunday afternoon, with
the best likelihood over the mountains and foothills. Any
clearing that occurs during the day would help to kick off
convective showers due to surface heating providing lift for the
fairly significant moisture moving over the area. There is a
chance of heavier rain occuring near any thunderstorms that form.
Mainly light rain is expected across portions of Ventura County
and southeastern Santa Barbara County.

Rain totals are expected to be around 0.25 inches or less for
most areas in LA county, except higher amounts in the foothills of
the San Gabriel Valley (0.5 inches likely) and the eastern San
Gabriel Mountains (locally to around 1.0 inch). Rain totals will
generally be 0.10 inch or less for Ventura and Santa Barbara
Counties. Rain rates could be up to around 0.20 inch per hour for
most areas, except for locally heavier showers mentioned above,
producing brief rates of 0.25 to 0.50 inch per hour. There is
only around 5 percent chance of rain rates high enough to cause
minor/urban flooding in LA County but roads could become slick
and dangerous due to the buildup of oil after many dry months.

***From Previous Discussion***

Temperatures will feel warmer over the weekend with the
additional humidity, but still remain within a few degrees of
normal. Overnight lows could be quite warm and only into the 70s
for our southern coasts and coastal valleys where the topical
mositure will be the greatest. Monday and Tuesday will see slight
warming each day, with continued humid conditions that will
produce moderate Heat Risk, especially near the coast. On Monday,
we can`t rule out a stray shower or isolated thunderstorm, but for
the most part expect dry weather. Tuesday, there is around a 50
percent chance of showers (and thunderstorms), this time focused
over Santa Barbara County and San Luis Obispo County.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...05/236 PM.

There is lower than normal forecast confidence for the overall
pattern and rain chances in the long term. Remnants of Marie are
likely to remain in the general region for much of next week and
forecast models have struggled to resolve the impacts. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday, focused for
Ventura County and the Central Coast. There is a moderate chance
that a ridge will build over SoCal by late this week, thus
temperatures are favored to warm with areas of at least moderate
HeatRisk for Wednesday and Thursday. Please stay tuned if heat
and/or rain may impact your plans next week, as forecast details
may change.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0155Z.

At 0013Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 feet deep. The top of
a weak inversion was 1800 feet with a temperature of 25 deg C.

High confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites through this
evening. Overnight, moderate confidence in current forecasts as
tropical moisture moves in, bringing the threat of light showers
and could wreak havoc with stratus formation.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. CAVU conditions are expected
through this evening. Overnight and through Sunday, there is a
30-40% chance of BKN015-025 CIGs. Light showers are expected to
develop Sunday morning. No significant easterly wind component is
expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. CAVU conditions are expected
through this evening. Overnight and Sunday morning, there is a
20-30% chance of BKN015-025 CIGs. Light showers are expected to
develop Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...05/802 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through Sunday morning, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels, except for
local gusts to 25 kt north of Point Sal this evening. Sunday
afternoon through Monday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level
winds. For Tuesday and Wednesday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels. On Thursday, there is a 30-50%
chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below SCA levels through Thursday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Wednesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On
Thursday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds across
western sections.

Tropical moisture will stream over the area Sunday through
Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers to the coastal waters.
There is a 15% chance of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon for the
waters south of the Channel Islands. A large southeast to south
swell will also impact the area, causing increased currents and
surges in the vulnerable harbors.

&&

.BEACHES...05/1140 AM.

Significant coastal impacts are expected across Southern
California beaches this Labor Day weekend. A large southeast to
south swell from Hurricane Marie will move into the coastal
waters this weekend with swell heights of 5-7 feet and a period
around 13 seconds.

High surf conditions are expected on south-facing beaches of
Ventura and Los Angeles counties, peaking at 5-8 feet with local
sets to 10 feet on Sunday and Monday. The Santa Barbara South
Coast will be largely protected from this swell, but there are
some small windows of southeasterly and southwesterly energy that
could cause boosts in the waves. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES remain in
place for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENTS (a step below high surf advisories) in effect for Santa
Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties.

High tides will also be increasing through early next week. Due to
a variety of reasons, the actual observed tides have been running
6 inches above predictions for sometime now. The south swell will
likely boost that enhancement. As a result, high tides should
exceed 7 feet by Monday. Adding large tides with the south swell
will result in a moderate risk for coastal flooding over the
vulnerable south-facing shores. Areas of most concern include
Avalon, Long Beach (Alamitos Peninsula), and Oxnard to Malibu
(including Point Mugu). COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES remain in effect
for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties where the best combination of
tides and waves will occur, but Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo
Counties could also see some isolated issues.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday evening for
      zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM PDT
      Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/Ciliberti
AVIATION...RAT/KL
MARINE...RAT/KL
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RS/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox