370
FXUS66 KLOX 242231
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
331 PM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...24/157 PM.

Weak northeast winds are expected to develop this weekend,
bringing drier conditions and warmer temperatures to the region
that will persist through the first half of next week. Cooler
conditions to follow with a growing potential for a storm system
towards the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...24/220 PM.

Synoptically, a 565 dam Low is exiting the region to the east and
north with the pattern becoming much more zonal over the area
beginning Sunday afternoon. Another Low dropping down the west
coast takes a more easterly track instead of dropping down into
southern Nevada with a result of a weaker gradient driving the
offshore winds.

A fairly benign stretch of weather ahead in the short-term. A
clearing and drying trend will continue this weekend as gradients
shift to weakly offshore. Expect the strongest northeast flow to
occur today. These weak offshore winds will most likely peak at
15-25 mph, with gusts of 25 to 40 mph common in the wind prone
mountains and valleys. Temperatures will rise 8 to 15 degrees
today compared to the last couple of days. Highs in the 70s to
lower 80s are expected, with an additional few degrees of warming
on Sunday.

Little change to the forecast on Monday, with slight cooling on
Tuesday with weaker offshore wind.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...24/222 PM.

Weak northwest to northeast winds will continue Tuesday then
weaken into Wednesday. This will keep temperatures largely
unchanged with highs in the 70s to lower 80s most common which is
right around normal for this time of the year.

The pattern will start to change around Thursday, with onshore
flow returning, temperatures dropping, and low pressure forming
over the West Coast. This will open the storm window over
California, with a growing chance of a rain impacting the local
area as early as Friday but more so for the weekend.

There is low confidence in the exact solution as the EC models bring
rain earlier and then drive keep a more powerful second pulse to
our south, while the GFS creates a cutoff low to our west and
brings the more impactful rain into our area beginning Sunday
night. The NBM averages it all out with low chances of rain
beginning as early as Friday and continuing into the following
week. Amounts anywhere between 0.5" and 2" seem reasonable. It is
too early to comment on rainfall rates, or specific amounts at
specific locations.

There is a 90+% chance for rain sometime in the Oct 30 through
Nov 2 timeframe, likely lasting several hours. Halloween
activities are likely to be impacted. At this point, the most
likely outcome is for a moderate-level storm in terms of strength
and impacts, with a low but present risk for a higher level
storm.

&&

.AVIATION...24/2230Z.

At 2215Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer and no inversion.

For 00Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all
sites through the period.

KLAX...High confidence in 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected
through the period. No significant easterly wind component is
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...24/248 AM.

Steep seas near 10 feet will continue through early this morning
for the outer waters. 15-20 knot North winds are likely nearshore
this morning around Malibu, and West winds over many nearshore
waters in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, high confidence in quiet
conditions this weekend. Northwest winds will increase next week.
SCA conditions are likely Monday and Tuesday for the waters from
the Central Coast through San Nicolas Island.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM PDT
      Thursday for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Ciliberti/jld
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...jld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox