554
FXUS66 KLOX 281804
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1104 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...28/854 AM.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Juliette will drift over the
region through this evening. It will be cooler and cloudier today
but with a jump in humidity. A few light showers are possible,
across Los Angeles County through this evening. A warming trend
will resume Saturday leading to slightly above normal
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...28/911 AM.

***UPDATE***

Juliette is tracking as expected with light precip in San Diego
county and mainly just high clouds so far across LA/Ventura
Counties. There are still a few hi res model solutions bringing
light rain to southeast LA County this afternoon and evening, but
most of the ensembles keep it south and east. Chances for
measurable rain are likely too low to mention at this point but
will leave in a slight chance just in case there are a few
spritzes of rain. Otherwise, it looks like Juliette will be a non-
issue for LA and the rest of the forecast area except for
slightly cooler temperatures due to the increasing high cloud
coverage. Even the humidities aren`t an issue and in fact most
areas today are significantly drier today than yesterday.

Expecting temperatures to bounce back up Friday with some triple
digits possible in the valley. May have to re-introduce a chance
of showers and storms across the LA/Ventura County mountains
Friday afternoon as models are showing quite a bit of instability
and PW`s are still around a 1.5".

***From Previous Discussion***

The chance of rain and the clouds will end this evening leaving
mostly clear skies in their wake. Its about a 50-50 proposition
that low clouds will develop tonight across coastal sections south
of Pt Conception. The Central Coast will likely see low clouds
develop overnight.

Friday will be a mostly sunny day and the return of sunshine
combined with rising hgts from an expanding upper high will drive
up temperatures by 4 to 8 degrees. Look for 80s across the csts
away from the nearshore area and 90s in the vlys.

Weak offshore flow from the north, only weak onshore flow to the
east and no eddy should all combine to keep the low clouds away
from areas south of Pt Conception. The Central Coast should have
some low clouds. Hgts continue to rise as the upper high to the
east bulges westward. Hgts will climb to 590 dam. Most areas will
see 2 to 4 degrees of warming, but the Central Coast will warm by
3 to 6 locally 8 degrees as a little north flow develops. This
warming will bring the max temps up to above normal. Vly highs
will range from 90 to 102 degrees.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...28/1214 AM.

Benign weather on tap for the xtnd fcst. An upper high will push
in from the east On Sunday and Monday and then weaken Tue and Wed
as it sits over the state. Hgts will rise from 589 dam Sun to 592
dam Mon and Tue only to fall to 590 dam on Wed. Onshore flow will
not be that strong and will likely be slightly offshore from the
north in the morning.

The marine layer stratus pattern has been tough to fcst this
month. Right now the best chc for low clouds during this period
will be the Central Coast and the Santa Ynez Vly. There will
probably be some morning low cloudiness across the LA/VTA csts as
well but this is less certain.

There will be little in the way of day to day temperature change.
Look for 70s near the beaches with 80s a little further inland.
The vly temps will mostly be in the 90s with some 100 degree
readings possible in the western San Fernando Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1803Z.

At 1725Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep, with an
inversion top of 2400 ft and a temperature of 24 C.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX. There is a 30% and 40%
chance for LIFR conds, respectively, between 08Z and 16Z.

High confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 10% chance for -SHRA
at LA County sites from 20Z through 06Z. VFR conds should
prevail.

Good confidence in TAFs. There is 10 percent chc of light rain
for sites KSBA and southward after 12Z (increasing to 20 percent
after 18Z for KSMO, KLAX and KLGB). There is a 10-20% chance of
IFR/MVFR cigs for coastal/valley sites until 16Z and again after
06Z Friday.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is 10 percent chc of -SHRA
from 20Z to 06Z. High confidence that any east wind component
will be under 6KT.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. There is 10 percent chc of -SHRA
from 20Z to 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...28/840 AM.

High confidence in relatively light winds and small seas through
at least Friday morning, except for localized northwest wind gusts
of 20 to 25 knots from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island
this afternoon and evening. High confidence in increasing
northwest winds and seas beyond 20 miles from shore through Labor
Day Weekend into early next week, with a 40% chance for Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) NW winds beginning Friday across the northern
Outer Waters and near Point Conception. There is a 20% chance of
GALES for the outer waters north of Point Conception late
Saturday.

Remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Juliette will bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms to the coastal waters between
San Nicolas Island and the Palos Verdes Peninsula and south later
this morning through late tonight.

&&

.BEACHES...28/808 AM.

A southerly swell from Tropical Storm Juliette will continue into
Friday. A longer period southerly swell from the Southern
Hemisphere will arrive late Saturday and continue into early next
week. Hazardous rip currents are likely over Labor Day Weekend,
especially late Saturday through Monday for Los Angeles and
Ventura County beaches. Elevated surf (up to 6 feet) will be
possible at south and southwest facing beaches during the
aforementioned period.

If you are at the beach this Labor Day Weekend, swim near a
lifeguard tower and stay aware of ocean conditions.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox