253
FXUS66 KLOX 131828
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1128 AM PDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...13/1214 AM.

Warm but below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday,
with coastal morning low clouds. Gusty Sundowner winds will
continue through Monday. Temperatures look to increase towards
the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...13/1058 AM.

***UPDATE***

Low clouds have cleared for all but southern portions of LA County
into far southeast Ventura County. Low clouds may linger into the
early afternoon for the Malibu area in particular, thanks in part
to our weaker September sun.

Wind hazards for later this afternoon to evening along the
Central Coast to southwest Santa Barbara County look good. There
is a 30 percent chance that a short-fused wind advisory will be
needed for the I-5 corridor in the mountains late this afternoon
through this evening.

***From Previous Discussion***

Steady lowering in day-to-day temperatures remains in play
through Tuesday for several reasons. One, an upper-level trough of
low pressure over the western United States will amplify each
day. Two, surface pressure gradients will remain healthily
onshore. Three, gusty Central Coast and Sundowner winds will peak
over the weekend, then quickly weaken. These winds have limited
the low clouds and fog development recently, but come Monday and
Tuesday all indications are for a huge coastal eddy forming in
their wake with rapid low cloud development and expansion. Would
expect a few random reports of drizzle as well. All of this will
boost the temperature drop. With all that stated, highs will still
generally be in the mid 70s to mid 80s which is not cold, but not
hot either and below normal by 5 or 10 degrees.

The aforementioned Sundowner winds will peak tonight in terms of
strength and areal coverage. While the eastern Santa Ynez Range
now looks fairly tame this morning, these winds should expand
across the entire range tonight as the SBA-BFL gradient goes from
near neutral to -4 millibars. Will leave the current Wind
Advisories as is as a result, carrying us through tonight.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...13/1234 AM.

Little change expected from Tuesday into Wednesday with below
normal temperatures and lots of marine layer clouds. High pressure
over the southeastern states will expand to the west Thursday
through Saturday, but that expansion will be battling a small yet
potent closed low spinning somewhere between San Fransisco and
Portland. How those two features interact is still up in the air,
with a fairly large spread in the ensemble projections in terms of
the warmth of the air mass and the resulting high temperatures. A
warming trend is very likely, but it could be only 5 degrees or it
could be 15 degrees...or somewhere in between. The warmest
scenario would knock on the door of some targeted Heat Advisories,
but that is about a 20% chance at this point. The tropical Storm
train off western Mexico looks to remain active through the week,
but not seeing any significant moisture surge signals into
California at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...13/1827Z.

At 18Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 3500 feet and 22 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Monday at
KPRB, KSBA, KPMD, KWJF. Some low-end LLWS is possible at KSBA this
evening 03-10Z with gusty north winds in the nearby hills.

For Tonight: LIFR/IFR ceilings possible at KSBP (10%) KSMX (30%).
IFR/MVFR ceilings possible at KOXR (20%) KCMA (20%) KSMO (60%)
KLAX (60%) KLGB (70%) KBUR (30%) KVNY (20%).

Moderate confidence in TAF timing (+/- 3 hours).

KLAX...60% chance of IFR/MVFR cigs late tonight into Monday
morning. Moderate confidence that any east winds will stay under 8
knots.

KBUR...30% chance of IFR/MVFR cigs by Monday morning, with at
least MVFR vsbys in haze likely.

&&

.MARINE...13/736 AM.

Moderate confidence in current suite of Small Craft Advisories
(SCA) and Gale Warnings (GLW). High confidence that winds will be
strongest today and tonight of the current northwest push, Gale
Force winds likely for the outer waters off the Central Coast.
Upper-end SCA winds will reach into the nearshore waters along
the Central coast and western Santa Barbara Channel today and
tonight, with a 50% chance of low-end SCA winds for Monday
afternoon and night. These winds will generate a building short-
period fresh swell over all waters, peaking in the afternoon &
evening hours.

High confidence in winds staying below SCA levels Tuesday through
Wednesday or Thursday. Stronger than usual southeast winds are
likely south of Point Conception however, especially on Tuesday
morning. Local gusts to 20 knots possible between the islands.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones
      340-341-346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones
      349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RM/RK
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox