847
FXUS66 KLOX 080319
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
819 PM PDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...07/121 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue through
the week with temperatures near to slightly below normal. There
is a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday into Friday across
Los Angeles County.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...07/818 PM.

***UPDATE***

The marine layer has been slow to develop tonight, but still
expecting low clouds to develop and push into all coastal and many
valley areas overnight into the morning hours.

Increasing onshore flow to the east and north and increasing
marine layer cloud coverage will contribute to the cooling of
high temperatures tomorrow compared to today, with the sharpest
drop off across the interior of the Central Coast (up to 13
degrees cooler in Paso Robles).

All eyes are on the Thursday-Friday subtropical moisture
intrusion. Although there exists a good deal of uncertainty,
especially regarding exact location of rain, rain totals, and
rates, high resolution models are beginning to hone in on
potential convection from Priscilla`s moisture remaining on the
far southeastern edges of LA County and to the southeast, and the
coastal waters adjacent to Orange County as early as Thursday
morning. Still, the most intense activity is expected remain to
the south and east of our area. However, any perturbation to the
upper level pattern could shift convection slightly further west
into LA County, or completely to the south and east. The
injection of moisture into the area will also lead to slightly
higher maximum and minimum temperatures, especially across LA
County.

***From Previous Discussion***

A couple of quiet weather days today and Wednesday with the usual
marine layer stratus covering most coast and valleys during the
night and morning hours. Temperatures will be near to slightly
below normal.

The primary focus for the short term is the Thu/Fri time frame
when the remnants of Priscilla move into the area. We`re just
starting to get a peak at the higher res models now as they reach
into Thursday into early Friday and they are indicating chances
for some convection from Priscilla`s outer bands across LA County
and the adjacent coastal waters. This could happen as early as
Thursday morning based on the latest hi res models. This likely
would not be accompanied by much rainfall, at least initially, as
most of the moisture at this point would be very high based and
cells would be moving at pretty good clip. Still a lot of
uncertainty with this though as a lot will depend on the ultimate
track of Priscilla as it moves up the coast and even a small wag
to the east could shift all the showers and storms east of LA
County. For now the forecast calls for a 10-20% chance of
thunderstorms Thursday into early Friday in LA County.

West and north of LA County conditions are expected to be fairly
typical but with some warming and increasing humidity as PW`s
increase to around 1.5" south of Pt Conception. Can`t completely
rule out shower/storm chances as far west as Ventura County but
that would be below 10% for now since Priscilla is expected to be
pushed to the east due to the presence of the trough over
northern and Central California.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...07/204 PM.

Weather conditions should quickly return to normal Saturday
through Monday as Priscilla remnants are safely to the east. It
may take a day or two for the marine layer to redevelop south of
Pt Conception, but otherwise pleasant conditions expected area-
wide with highs near to slightly below normal (mostly 70s to
lower 80s) and no signs of any significant winds during the
period.

There are indications on the longer range models that another cold
upper low will be dropping out of Canada and the Pac NW Tuesday
into Wednesday with some rain chances. However, as with the
tropical system there remains a lot of uncertainty with the track,
with some models way too far inland with it to bring any precip
locally. Currently about 30-40% of the solutions collectively
show at least some rain during that time.

&&

.AVIATION...07/2331Z.

At 2226Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1600 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was near 2700 feet with a temperature of 23
C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. High confidence in cigs at
some point tonight, but arrival times may be off by 2 hours.
Clearing times may also be off +/- 2 hours, and there is a 30% for
no clearing at coastal sites, highest at KSMX, KOXR, KSMO, and
KLAX.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may return any time before
02Z or as late as 04Z. There is a 10 percent chance for brief
OVC008-009 cigs tonight. Clearing times likely between 18Z and
22Z, but there is a 30% chance cigs do not clear. No significant
east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival time likely between 05
and 08Z. Clearing times likely between 17Z and 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...07/722 PM.

Across the outer waters and nearshore along the Central Coast
conditions are likely to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
criteria through Thursday, with increasing winds to near or above
SCA level winds possible by Friday, generally south of Point
Conception. Friday evening through the weekend, SCA winds are
likely to become widespread, with a 30% chance of GALES south of
Point Conception on Friday evening, and again on Saturday. Seas
are likely to become choppy & significant wave heights will near
10 ft over the weekend.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions should
generally remain below SCA criteria through mid week. Isolated
gusts approaching SCA levels are possible this evening and
Wednesday evening near Point Dume and the San Pedro Channel.
There is a moderate chance for SCA level winds Friday & Saturday,
with highest chances across the western portion of the Santa
Barbara Channel, including a 20% chance of GALES on Saturday.
Seas likely to become choppy during this time.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Black/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox