492
FXUS66 KLOX 032212
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
212 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...03/146 PM.

A moderate Santa Ana wind event will bring gusty northeast winds
to portions of southern California through Thursday. Cold
overnight low temperatures will occur through the work week,
coldest tonight into Thursday morning in wind protected areas. A
significant warming trend will begin this weekend and peak next
Tuesday and Wednesday at 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...03/211 PM.

This round of Santa Ana winds has been slow to develop,
especially across more populated valleys and coasts as coastal
marine influences have been battling the drier airmass. Advisory
level gusts have begun to be observed across the San Gabriels and
Santa Susanas, but coasts and coastal valleys have generally been
below 35 mph, although winds have been ticking up in the last
couple of hours. A relative lull will occur this afternoon through
evening. But confidence is high in stronger and more widespread
Santa Ana Winds returning late tonight and continuing into
Thursday afternoon, with the peak being Thursday morning. We are
expecting winds in the 25-35 mph range across the valleys and
coasts, while favored foothills may gust to 45 mph at times.
Across the San Gabriels, Santa Susanas, I-5 Corridor, and portions
of the southern Ventura County mountains, winds will be common in
the 35-45 mph range with gusts to 55 mph. Isolated gusts to 60
mph are possible in the mountains, especially the Western San
Gabriels and the Santa Susanas. The current Wind Advisory will
remain in place and no locations have been added. Although it has
been dry for a couple weeks now, soils may still be wet below the
surface, which could lead to trees being downed more easily. Dont
forget to secure those outdoor decorations and objects! Winds
will weaken some and even turn onshore Friday and Saturday
afternoon.

Tonight will feature quite cold temperatures region-wide for
areas absent of Santa Ana Wind influences. Freeze Warnings have
been issued for the Antelope Valley, southern Salinas Valley, and
interior San Luis Obispo County valleys. Frost Advisories have
been issued for the Antelope Valley Foothills (isolated temps
below freezing possible), Ojai Valley, and Cuyama Valley.
Widespread low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 20s to mid
30s, coldest in the areas with Freeze Warnings in place.
Elsewhere, overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s as the
downsloping winds will play a part in keeping overnight lows
elevated. For the Los Angeles Basin, temperatures will be in the
40s, with a very low (less than 10%) chance for overnight lows
briefly dipping below 40 degrees in the downtown area. Overnight
lows will tick up a few degrees each of the next couple nights.

As far as high temperatures go, the upper level weak troughing
will be nudged to the east by the incoming Pacific Ridge. Highs
will slowly climb into the 70s for much of the area by Friday,
save for interior portions and immediate coasts. The ridge will
slowly move overhead over the weekend, fostering quite warm
temperatures for this time of year over the weekend especially
across the interior on Sunday. The immediate coasts will likely
remain in the 60s as the onshore flow kicks in Friday and
Saturday.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...03/211 PM.

The main focus in the long term will be the high temperatures.
The Pacific Ridge moving overhead will be responsible for keeping
us locked into a prolonged warm and dry period. By Sunday, 500 mb
heights will reach the 90-95th percentile compared to climatology,
and the ridge will park itself along the California Coast through
most of the week. Monday through Wednesday looks the warmest, and
500 mb heights will likely exceed the 95th percentile during this
period. Temperatures will start cooling next Thursday and Friday
but still well above normal.

There will be some northerly flow developing Sunday night through
Tuesday that will bring dry and gusty winds to north exposed
areas which includes most of the mountains as well as southern
Santa Barbara County.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1953Z.

Around 18Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer and no inversion.

Moderate to high confidence in forecast. Wind gusts may be off by
5-10 kts at times during peak winds at KOXR, KCMA, KVNY, KPMD, and
KWJF. There is a 10% chance of a few hours of LIFR-IFR conds at
KLGB between 08Z-14Z Thu.

Moderate turbulence will be possible over the higher terrain
through the period due to Santa Ana Winds.

KLAX...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance
of an east wind component of 6-8 kt between 10Z-19Z Thu.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. Moderate LLWS is
possible after 05Z Thu.

&&

.MARINE...03/211 PM.

Northeast offshore winds will impact much of the coastal waters
south of Santa Barbara County tonight through Thursday morning.
The strongest winds will be nearshore from Ventura Harbor south
to Santa Monica and across the San Pedro Channel off the coast of
Orange County. Winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts up to 35 kt will
be possible. There is a 60 percent chance of east wind gusts 15-25
kt occuring across east-facing harbors on Catalina Island
Thursday morning.

Friday afternoon through Monday, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds
are possible (40-60% chance) across the outer waters, with the
greatest chances in the afternoon and evenings north of the
Channel Islands. Seas may exceed 10 feet across the aforementioned
area over the weekend. Otherwise and elsewhere, mild conditions
are expected Thursday through at least the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 8 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 38-357-381-382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for
      zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Freeze Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 8 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 343-344-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning
      for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Thursday for zone
      354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM
      PST Thursday for zones 655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW/Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox