498
FXUS66 KLOX 080326
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
826 PM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...07/532 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue for the
next several days over the coast and valleys with slow, if any,
clearing at the coast. A warming trend will develop for the
weekend and through next week, mainly for inland areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...07/819 PM.

***UPDATE***

Low clouds cleared out decently this afternoon, but are starting
to expand this evening. Everything is on track for another fairly
expansive morning come Sunday, similar to Saturday. While high
pressure will start to advance on Sunday, allowing the interior
areas to warm a few degrees, any warming should be hard to notice
on the coastal side of the ranges with a persistent marine layer.
Tweaked temperatures some Sunday and Monday to maintain that
general story of small changes today and more noticeable across
the area on Monday. Otherwise, forecast is in good shape.

***From Previous Discussion***

No significant changes to the forecast through Tuesday. An upper
low off Central California continues to maintain a deep marine
layer, keeping temperatures on the cooler side. Latest models show
the deep marine layer will continue at least one more day along
with a moderate to strong onshore flow which is typical for this
time of year. By Monday and Tuesday most of the ensemble solutions
show the upper low moving east of the area with a quick pop up
ridge that will boost temperatures early in the week with warmer
valley highs at least reaching the lower 90s and around 100
across the Antelope Valley. Coastal areas will continue to be
influenced by a shallower but still present marine layer and still
moderate to strong onshore flow, keeping coastal highs in the 60s
to lower 70s. Gusty southwest winds will be a daily occurrence
across the AV in additional to gusty northwest winds across
southwest Santa Barbara County in the late afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...07/1223 PM.

A cooling trend will begin Wednesday as a series of weak troughs
move through the Pac NW and northern California. Moderate to
strong onshore flow will persist and with the shift to a trough
pattern temperatures will drop 3-5 degrees each day through
Friday, bringing highs back down below normal as early as Thursday
and lasting into next weekend. Low clouds and fog will push back
into the valleys with slow afternoon clearing.The daily gusty
wind pattern will continue across the AV and southwest Santa
Barbara County. Overall a very typical June weather pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...08/0032Z.

At 2316Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 1200 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was 4300 feet with a temperature of 23
degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs at KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF. There is a
10% chance for LIFR to IFR cigs at KPRB from 12Z to 16Z.

Low to moderate confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY. Arrival of
IFR cigs tonight may be as late as 10Z. There is a 20% chance of
LIFR conds.

Moderate to low confidence in remaining TAFs. Arrival times of
cigs may be off +/- 3 hours. Minimum flight cats may be off by one
cat for the overnight period.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Return of cigs may be
off by 1-2 hours from TAF time of 02Z. There is a 20% chance cigs
remain MVFR through the period, and a 20-30% chance of no clearing
Sun afternoon. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Arrival time of
cigs may be off by +/- 2 hours from TAF time of 07Z. There is a
20% chance of LIFR conds.

&&

.MARINE...07/823 PM.

High confidence in conditions remaining below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels through Sunday morning. Moderate confidence
that NW winds will then increase to SCA levels in the Outer
Waters south of Point Conception and the western portion of the
Santa Barbara Channel Sunday afternoon. SCA level NW winds will
become more widespread across the Outer Waters and potentially the
Inner Waters along the Central Coast Monday, but especially
Tuesday afternoon through much of the work week. Chances for SCA
level winds for the western portion of the SBA Channel will also
increase during this time period. Moderate to high confidence in
winds remaining below SCA levels across the remaining Inner Waters
south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT
      Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Kittell
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...Lewis/Kittell
SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox