792
FXUS63 KLSX 272340
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
640 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like heat and humidity continue through the weekend with
  afternoon pop up thunderstorms.

- A cold front on Monday brings an air mass change with cooler and
  less humid conditions for the beginning to middle of next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The ridge that has brought us all the heat and humidity this past
week is finally breaking down and shifting east. The core of the
ridge has shifted to the East Coast and western Atlantic. Our region
is actually caught between a subtle upper low over the Southeast US
and a shortwave trough moving east out of the Great Lakes and into
southern Canada. Upper divergence between these features in
combination with lingering near-surface outflow boundaries from
recent storms has allowed for the development of more widespread
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon compared to yesterday.
Although we continue to see plenty of instability, wind shear
remains quite weak, helping to limit the overall severe weather
threat. That said, high moisture content and a relatively deep mixed
layer may enable a few stronger updrafts to develop denser cores
which could accelerate as they collapse into a wet microburst or
two. Precipitable water values near 2 inches also suggest heavy
downpours where storms occur. While storms have had at least some
movement to them, where they linger they will pose a locally greater
flash flood threat. The thunderstorm activity is expected to
decrease as we head into the evening hours with the loss of daytime
heating and instability.

A weak front associated with the trough to our north has already
sunk southward out of Iowa into northern Missouri. With the primary
push of the parent wave off to the east, the southward push is
expected to slow overnight and this front will be stalled in our
vicinity tomorrow, though admittedly it may be hard to find at that
point. It is, however, expected to limit the daily thunderstorm
chances to the southern half of the forecast area Saturday
afternoon, along and south of this remnant front. In fact, clouds
and showers are likely to keep southern areas a few degrees cooler
than northern areas tomorrow where there will be more sun. Again,
though, shear remains quite weak so storm organization will be hard
to develop, keeping the severe weather threat low.

Kimble

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

We finally see an air mass change on the horizon, but before we get
there we have to get through the rest of the weekend. A trough
moving east out of the Pacific Northwest will cause a brief
resurgence of ridging across the central US out ahead of it. The
response in the low levels will be a subtle surge northward of more
warm and humid air on Sunday, helping to push the remnant frontal
boundary northward again. While we remain in the muggy air mass,
plenty of instability, the remnant boundary, and warm/moist
advection is expected to trigger more widespread showers and
thunderstorms across our region on Sunday. This may be perhaps the
most widespread activity of the weekend, and the associated cloud
cover may actually hold high temperatures down a few degrees.
Although we only have highs in the upper 80s forecast, dewpoints in
the mid 70s will push the heat index much higher into the 90s.

The northern stream trough turns southeast across the Plains Sunday
night into Monday, driving a cold front southeastward along with it.
While diurnally generated showers and storms may dissipate Sunday
evening, additional storms are expected to move into the region from
the northwest along and ahead of that cold front Sunday night. Some
of this may linger into the day Monday as the front makes its way
through our region. While we are not currently outlooked by SPC for
severe thunderstorms during this period, it`s worth noting that
there is an outlook just to the north in Iowa. There a convective
complex is expected to develop with the potential for damaging
winds. These storms will be what moves south through our region
Sunday night, and we wouldn`t rule out some gusty winds as they
enter our region. However the general intensity should trend
downward through the night. While shear likely increases on Monday,
instability may be more limited depending on the timing of the front
and associated cloud cover and rain.

Monday`s front ushers in a change in air mass. This air mass will be
spilling southeast out of the Canadian Rockies. While that does
sound cool, it`s not going to be all THAT cool as this area was on
the northern edge of a ridge originally and it will undergo
modification on its way toward us. However, it will bring a
noticeable drop in dewpoint providing a welcome break from the
humidity. Dewpoints are expected to drop at least 10 degrees from
the mid 70s to the mid 60s. High temperatures may not change much as
we`ll be seeing more sun in the post-frontal air mass enabling
greater solar warming of this incoming drier air mass. Still, highs
in the mid to upper 80s won`t feel so bad with the lower humidity.
Nighttime lows will also fall back into the 60s due to those lower
dewpoints. This slightly cooler and significantly drier air mass
lasts for a few days through the middle of next week.

Surface high pressure passes through our region around Wednesday,
with return southerly flow behind it enabling a gradual warm up and
a return of more humid conditions for late in the week. There
continues to be some variation in guidance on just how warm it gets
late next week, but the trend toward ridging aloft gives us
confidence that we will see at least some rise in temperatures by
Independence Day. Just how warm depends on whether the ridge is more
dominant over our area or if the developing trough over the Great
Lakes and Northeast maintains some influence. Looking at the
probabilistic NBM for Friday (July 4) shows that on the cooler end
(25th percentile) we`re still looking at highs around 90, but if the
ridge is more dominant we`ll be closing in on the mid 90s again
(75th percentile). With an increase in humidity as well, we could
see heat index values inching closer to critical levels as well. As
far as rain chances go, the increase in heat and humidity will bring
an increase in instability as well. There`s also some potential for
a front associated with the Great Lakes trough to be in our vicinity
and be the focus for some showers and thunderstorms. However,
uncertainty on this front`s timing and location have kept PoPs at
about 30 percent for now.

Kimble

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Scattered thunderstorm activity will continue to fester near the
St. Louis metro terminals through 02z/9pm before diminishing.
This is being handled with a prob30 mention at KSTL, KSUS, and
KCPS due to low confidence that the storms will in fact make it in.
Elsewhere, shower and thunderstorm activity has already
diminished, with VFR conditions and light winds anticipated
through the remainder of this TAF cycle.

WFO ILX

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX