648
FXUS63 KLSX 140836
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
236 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Rain will overspread the area today from west to east and then
continue through much of tonight.

-A warming trend begins Sunday and lasts through at least mid week
with highs potentially nearing daily records.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 232 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Widespread rain across western and southwestern Missouri is making
slow, but steady progress east/northeast closer to our central
Missouri counties very early this morning. This rain is aided by
strong low-level moisture convergence and a mid-level impulse moving
out of the Arklatex region. What looks different compared to 24
hours ago is that the low-level moisture convergence on most
guidance tends to stall out just south of the I-70 corridor later
this afternoon into this evening. This is now where the highest
rainfall totals are most likely to be in Missouri, where the LPMM of
the HREF shows totals may approach 2". Totals over 0.50" are still
forecast for most of the area, with probabilities on the HREF >50%
roughly along/south of a Paris, MO to Pittsfield, IL line. As was
discussed yesterday, this prolonged (15-21 hours) and largely steady
light to moderate rain will be very beneficial given the ongoing
dryness/drought. Much of the first half of the event likely will be
absorbed by soils, but I do expect runoff to increase tonight,
especially within/near the heavier corridor of rainfall amounts.
This should lead to increasing flows on local creeks/streams and get
them running much closer to normal for this time of year.

Rain will exit the area late tonight into early Sunday morning from
west to east as the low-level cyclone moves into the southeastern
United States. Decreasing cloudiness is expected throughout the day,
with at least some sunshine expected even in parts of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois by afternoon. High temperatures are
expected to range from the mid 50s to near the 60 degree mark from
southeast to northwest.


Gosselin

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 232 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

(Sunday Night - Friday)

Warming temperatures will continue into at least midweek as
mid/upper level ridging moves eastward into the Mississippi Valley
and 850-hPa temperatures climb to near or above +10C. The warmest
period should be between Tuesday and Thursday. Highs above 60
degrees are likely each day, with some 70+ degree readings possible.
The highest chances for 70+ readings on the NBM remain on Wednesday
(60-80%) for parts of central, east central, and southeast Missouri.

Guidance has trended toward the initial cold front Wednesday
night/Thursday morning to get hung up north of us. As a result,
Thursday has trended a bit warmer. In fact, it is certainly
plausible that the warmest day of the week ends up on Thursday. Both
the 75th/90th percentiles on the NBM at many locations are actually
warmer on Thursday compared to Wednesday. Regardless, it definitely
looks warm each day through Thursday. Even the 25th percentile highs
on the NBM are running 15+ degrees above normal. Record highs may
even be threatened during this period, with the most likely
candidate being on Wednesday due to relatively cooler daily records
that day (KSTL: 74F/1971, KCOU: 71F/2017, KUIN: 68F/2017). For more
information on daily record highs, please refer to the CLIMATE
section below.

Ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement that a stronger
cold front should move through the bi-state area by Friday, which
should help cool off temperatures back closer to normal.

In terms of precipitation chances, it still looks like much of the
week should be dry. There is little/no chance of any measurable
rainfall through at least Tuesday. Multiple midlevel shortwave
troughs are expected to pass well to our north through Thursday, but
stronger mid/upper level forcing for ascent stays up across the
Upper Midwest. Given the proximity of the front during this period
of time across parts of northeast Missouri and west-central
Illinois, low chances (20-30%) of showers (and perhaps even a
thunderstorm) exist Thursday - Thursday night. Another low chance of
showers is possible associated with the actual cold frontal passage
on Friday.

Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1029 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Leading area of rain currently of southwest Missouri will move
northeast reaching COU/JEF by 12Z and the St. Louis metro
terminals by 16Z. I have higher confidence now that UIN will see
rain, so have added a FM group with rain starting at 20Z. Ceilings
and visibilities will initially be VFR, but will slowly decrease
to MVFR, and then IFR or LIFR through the late morning and
afternoon/evening. Light winds initially will turn out of the
southeast during the morning before backing to the east/northeast
by evening. Winds will stay 10 knots or less.

Britt

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 232 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Daily record high temperatures may be threatened early/mid next
week. Here are records between Tuesday 2/17 and Thursday 2/19 at our
three official climate stations:

        Tuesday 2/17        Wednesday 2/18      Thursday 2/19
KSTL    77/1911             74/1971             77/2016
KCOU    74/2011             71/2017             77/2017
KUIN    72/2017             68/2017             72/2017

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX