900
FXUS63 KLSX 072323
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
523 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures are all but certain starting tomorrow,
  with values peaking Monday or Tuesday depending on location.

- Rain chances (50-70%) return late Tuesday into Wednesday,
  kicking off a cooler, somewhat busier stretch of weather
  hallmarked by precipitation chances through the weekend. Despite
  the persistent chances, plenty of dry time is still on the
  table.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

The weak surface ridge behind last night`s cold front is already
advancing into the Ohio River Valley, establishing slightly warmer
southeasterly return flow across the bi-state region. Aloft, a
mid- level ridge exceeding the 90th climatological percentile is
amplifying across the southern Plains and advancing east into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. These rising heights aloft are coincident
with strengthening southerly winds across the Plains advecting
warmer air poleward. A subtle clipper is evident on the northern
periphery of this ridge ejecting from southwest Canada. While this
feature eventually reaches us, the southerly winds ahead of it
will continue to warm temperatures through tonight into Sunday.

While overnight lows tonight will be fairly similar to last night`s,
per nearly all short-range guidance, warm advection ramps up from
west to east closer to sunrise which will send Sunday`s high
temperatures 5-15 degrees warmer than today`s highs. Those in south-
central Illinois will likely (80% chance) remain in the 30s thanks
to lingering snowpack and weaker warm air advection. Further west,
where snow is a distant memory and warm advection is much more
pronounced on all guidance, we make a run at the low 60s before the
clipper arrives. I wouldn`t be totally surprised if we see mid-60s
just lee of the Ozarks with a southwest wind during peak heating.
The clipper arrives just as the sun sets on our weekend, but has no
real impact on our sensible weather with any colder airmasses still
relegated north of the US-Canada border. As a result, Sunday night`s
weather will be a near carbon copy to tonight`s.

MRB

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

The upcoming work week starts warm and dry with the clipper already
exiting the region by sunrise. Exactly how warm any location is will
differ, with another west-east gradient to high temperatures
expected. Those in central Missouri, who will enjoy a stronger
southwesterly wind ahead of an approaching cold front for most of
the day, will likely (60-70%) see highs in the mid-60s. Further
east, winds remain more southeasterly for part of the day which will
stifle warm advection just a bit. Regardless, for those along and
east of the Mississippi River, a noticeable jump (as much as 10
degrees) in high temperatures is forecast. The aforementioned
front draws closer to the Mid-Mississippi Valley Monday night and
will traverse the region Tuesday. The speed of the front is a bit
more uncertain than in previous forecasts, which will mainly
impact Tuesday`s high temperatures. The highest uncertainty exists
along the I-70 corridor, where NBM IQRs for high temperature jump
to 10-15 degrees compared to values in the single digits both
north and south of there. While still abnormally warm,
particularly in the Ozarks and southwest Illinois, exactly how
warm we get hinges greatly on the front`s speed.

There is an increased signal in ensemble and deterministic guidance
for rain chances to increase along and ahead of the front Tuesday
afternoon into the evening. The best chances continue to exist
generally south of I-70, though solutions vary from close to the
Missouri River to the Missouri-Arkansas border for the axis of
highest potential. This axis depends greatly on how far south the
front advances before it stalls. In the wake of this front and its
shortwave aloft, mid-level zonal flow will allow for shortwave
impulses to translate downstream and threaten more precipitation
through the rest of the week. One important difference compared to
previous forecasts is that more of the guidance seems to focus this
wave train further south from the southern Plains into the Gulf
Coast. This change is coincident with a cooling trend in the
temperature forecast across most of the region compared to previous
forecasts. While this wouldn`t mean we are out of the woods from
additional precipitation chances through the rest of the work week,
if the main thrusts of mid-level ascent remain to our south we will
see more dry time than not.

There remains a signal for an amplified wave out of the southern
stream to eject from Baja California late next week and take aim on
the region Friday night into Saturday. Beyond that, there are
significant timing and amplitude differences evident in the EOF
patterns of the global-scale ensembles that will influence this
wave`s track and our sensible weather as a result. If the wave stays
far enough north, the resultant surface low would bring widespread
rain and gusty winds sometime late Friday into Saturday. If it takes
a far enough south track, we remain dry and cool. There is also a
"middle of the road" track between these two goalposts that could
threaten some light (likely unimpactful) snow on Saturday.
Regardless of the track, attention will be paid to how this wave
evolves over the coming days for impacts to the region. Looking
ahead beyond that, both CIPS Extended Analogs from Saint Louis
University and the Climate Prediction Center continue to signal
higher (50-70%) chances of above-normal temperatures and a wetter-
than-normal pattern going further into mid-February.

MRB

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Dry and VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Tonight`s southeasterly winds will become variable tomorrow
morning in central MO before becoming light in the late afternoon
to evening.


Jaja

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX