Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 312057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
357 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Mid-highs clouds have continued to clear out of the region this
afternoon, though some cumulus remains in area along the Mississippi
River. These mid-high clouds are associated with an upper low
currently over the Ohio Valley, and these clouds will move out of
the area as the low moves east late this afternoon. The cumulus
will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Still expect good
radiational cooling tonight given the clearing and a surface
ridge moving into the area, so kept with lows in the middle to
upper 30s.

Even with the cold start tomorrow, expect a decent warmup over
much of the CWA with plenty of sunshine and the low levels of the
atmosphere beginning to warm up.  Highs tomorrow will range from
the mid 50s over south central Illinois to the upper 60s over
central Missouri.


.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Both the GEFS and EPS are showing an unsettled pattern in the
extended as the upper flow will turn out of the southwest. There
will be two systems that will affect Missouri and Illinois during
the period. The first will be Thursday night into Saturday when a
slow moving cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to the
region. This front will not move far enough south of the area
Saturday night into Sunday to keep low chances of showers out of
the forecast. Then Monday into Tuesday this front will move back
north through the area as a warm front increasing the chance for
showers and thunderstorms again.

Temperatures during the period will be above normal, with the
coolest day on Saturday which will be day that will have some cold
air advection behind a cold front as well as clouds and rain. GEFS
plumes by early next week are favoring highs in the 70s.



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. Northerly
winds will turn out of the southeast by the end of the period.





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