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000
FXUS63 KLSX 260819
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
319 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Upper level trof continues to slowly track to the east across
forecast area as of 08z Monday. Warm front associated with system
will lift north of forecast area by midday today with showers and
storms exiting.

In the meantime, surface low over the upper Midwest will
continue to gradually move east into the Great Lakes region dragging
a strong cold front through the area beginning late this afternoon.
Ahead of the boundary, warm southerly flow will continue to bring in
decent low level moisture as well as instability with ML CAPES in
excess of 3000 J/kg and deep layer shear between 40 and 50 kts. So
have an enhanced risk of severe storms especially over central and
southwestern MO with supercell development initially that will
transition into a line and track southeast through forecast area
this evening. The main threats will be damaging winds, large hail
and isolated tornadoes.

Showers and storms will taper off by midday on Tuesday. Otherwise,
clearing skies from north to south on Tuesday.

Highs today and Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with
overnight lows tonight in the 60s to low 70s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Surface ridge will begin to build into the region Tuesday night and
remain anchored over area through Thursday. Despite northwest flow
aloft, dry conditions will prevail through this period with highs in
the mid 70s to mid 80s.

By late in the day on Thursday, next system will approach from the
northwest as upper level shortwave slides southeast. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms return to the area Friday into Saturday as
another cold front moves through.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Showers, with a few TSRA, will continue to slowly move NE through
the region. Expect low MVFR and IFR cigs to spread across the area
overnight with cigs slowly lifting through the morning. Expect CU
to develop Mon afternoon with ample heating ahead of an
approaching cold front. TSRA are expected to form along/ahead of
the cold front as it pushes through the area. These storms may be
strong/severe as the move through the region. Winds will become
westerly to northwesterly behind the front.

Tilly
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     84  69  82  64 /  70  90  10   5
Quincy          79  62  79  59 /  60  90   0   0
Columbia        84  63  80  59 /  40  90   5   5
Jefferson City  86  65  82  59 /  30  90   5   5
Salem           82  70  80  61 /  90  70  30   5
Farmington      82  68  81  60 /  40  80  30   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX