095
FXUS64 KLUB 052316
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

 - Unseasonably warm weather will continue through Monday.

 - Slightly cooler weather is expected Monday night through
   Wednesday along with low chances for some light precipitation.

 - Warmer and drier conditions are likely to return during the
   second half of the week into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Our awaited cold front is currently pushing into northeastern
Colorado/northwestern Kansas as of 17Z. The front will be slow to
push southward, reaching the Oklahoma Panhandle between 00-06Z
tonight and the central Texas Panhandle by 18Z Monday. Some frontal
convection will be possible Monday afternoon/evening but will likely
be confined to the Texas Panhandle along the area of greatest
surface convergence. As the front will remain to our north through
at least Monday afternoon, we will continue to see warm temperatures
with highs on Monday reaching into the mid 80s to around 90. Some
cloud cover may keep temps closer to 80 across our far northwestern
zones. Winds will remain on the breezy side this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

The cold front should begin to push into the FA after sunset Monday
evening, progressing slowly through the FA during the overnight
hours. There is some question of the extent of CAA behind the front
across guidance. The NAM is the coolest of guidance for Tuesday with
highs as cool as the mid 50s across our northern zones and around 70
across our south. Most other guidance keeps temps nearly 20 degrees
warmer. It is probable that we should see cooler temps than what the
NBM has progged, but possibly not as cool as the NAM. The airmass,
while not overly cool to begin with, will be highly modified. The
biggest player in helping cool highs on Tuesday will be cloud cover
and easterly surface flow. An upper high will build over the region
by mid week into the weekend with ridging stretching into the
Northern Plains. This will help keep highs in the 80s and precip
lacking.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR and southerly breezes will continue through this TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...30