381
FXUS64 KLUB 300345
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1045 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1044 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

 - Rain, heavy at times, through Wednesday morning with localized
   flooding possible.

 - Additional heavy rain possible in the far southeastern Rolling
   Plains this evening through Thursday morning.

 - Cooler and drier conditions late-week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A strong upper low over the Desert Southwest has swept up the
remnants of Hurricane Polo and a large mid-level fetch of tropical
moisture is currently making its way into our area as expected.
Highest moisture parameters remain over the far southwestern
Panhandle and north/western portions of the South Plains. However
given recent CAMs which were more aggressive with swaths of higher
precipitation farther east and the ground is already fairly
saturated from this morning`s rainfall over portions of the area,
the Flood Watch has been expanded to include all areas along and
west of I-27, including Lubbock. Amounts of 1 to 2 inches and swaths
of 3 to 4+ inches are possible. Use caution if traveling and do not
drive on flooded roadways. As the low occludes to the north, a dry
slot will encompass much of the forecast area beginning Wednesday
morning curtailing any additional rainfall chances across much of
the area. The lone exception will be over the far southeastern
Rolling Plains where the aforementioned front may still. Although
much of the QPF looks to be east of the CWA, the Flood Watch for
Stonewall County from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning has
been retained.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The upper low will continue to track north and west with some
potential for isolated-to-scattered precipitation on its backside
during the day on Thursday and Friday. This however will not amount
to much. A cold front will move through the area Thursday, with
brisk northerly winds developing in its wake. As such, highs will be
on the chilly side only reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s. Weak
ridging will gradually build into the weekend bringing drier and
slightly warmer conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR will continue for the next couple of hours before conditions
deteriorate quickly later this evening as a complex of
thunderstorms moves eastward through the region. Although a few
scattered SHRA/TSRA will persist ahead of the main complex this
evening, coverage of convection is not expected to significantly
increase until after about 04z. Confidence is high that CIGs will
fall to MVFR during this time, with strong/erratic winds and
periods of IFR CIGs and/or vis possible during heavier TS overnight.
Convection will clear from west to east early Wednesday morning,
and at this time it appears that IFR CIGs will persist at
KLBB/KPVW through about midday Wednesday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ021>023-027>029-
033>035-039>041.

Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for
TXZ044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30