719
FXUS64 KLUB 182321
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
621 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

 - Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the far Southwest
   Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains through the rest of
   this evening.

 - Hot temperatures on Saturday with highs around 100 for much of
   the area, with a few afternoon storms possible near the TX/NM
   state line.

 - Storm chances return for much of next week, but the threat for
   severe weather currently appears low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Water vapor imagery and upper-air observations show an upper ridge
centered over North Texas today with subsidence warming/drying
over West Texas resulting in slightly drier and warmer conditions
across the forecast area. Mid-level moisture analysis shows that the
eastward extent of the monsoon plume still jogs northeast from NM
over the Texas Panhandle, brushing our northwest counties. Forecast
soundings in this area show that strong heating will erode the cap
and could lead to a few showers and t-storms popping up late this
afternoon and evening in vicinity of the surface trough near the
state line. This activity should gradually weaken after sunset
leaving a quiet, mild night.

Saturday`s weather should be very similar to today. Heights are
expected to rise a little more which should bring more of the
forecast area to the century mark or slightly above for highs. If
lubbock reaches 100F it will be the first time since June 17.
The monsoon moisture plume also appears to thin and shift northwest
some, but we can`t rule out isolated showers or weak t-storms
developing late Saturday afternoon - mainly across Parmer and Bailey
Counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

No major changes to the long term forecast. A mid-to-upper level
subtropical ridge remains stagnant over majority of the southern
CONUS through middle of next week. An upper trough will develop off
the coast of the Pacific Northwest and amplifies over the western
CONUS. This upper trough will push the subtropical ridge to the east
of our region by mid-week. Temperatures remain hot through the long
term package with some areas off the Caprock reaching triple digits
due to slight height rises. Southerly surface flow will prevail most
of next week as a lee surface trough develops. The dry trend will
continue Sunday, however shower and thunderstorm chances return
every afternoon and evening from Monday through Thursday, mostly for
on the Caprock, as the upper trough building to the west pushes the
monsoonal moisture plume east just clipping West Texas. Some models
indicate a mid/upper level low over Mexico tracking northwest to
central Texas by mid-week which could aid in the development for
storms for our region. Low-level forcing will be weak from upslope
winds therefore the main hazard expected with these storms will be
locally heavy rainfall with PWATs around 1-1.5 inches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

VFR and continued southerly surface winds will prevail through
this TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30