389
FXUS64 KLUB 141743
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
   and evening.

 - Storm chances return every afternoon and evening Wednesday
   through Friday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Winds will gradually shift SE this afternoon allowing for the
advection of Gulf moisture into the area. PWATs off the Caprock
remain around 1.25-1.5". As with yesterday, although the instability
will be present, the forcing is extremely lacking without any
notable shortwaves or deep layer shear. Nonetheless, both synoptic
and mesoscale models all show at least some convective development
area-wide this afternoon into the evening. As such, chance/slight
chance PoPs have been continued with the latest forecast. With the
absence of any aforementioned waves, steering flow aloft will be
very slow, and thus locally heavy rain would be the main threat with
any storms. These should taper off by late evening and another quiet
night is expected with south winds near 10 mph and lows generally in
the upper 60s. Although winds may have a slight SE component
Tuesday, much of the best moisture advection will remain outside the
CWA, and a precipitation-free day is expected outside of a very
slight chance of storms clipping the far SE Rolling Plains.
Elsewhere will see mostly sunny skies and highs near 90. Quiet
conditions will persist into Tuesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The main focus for the long term package will be the shower and
thunderstorm chances every afternoon and evening Wednesday through
Friday. The western edge of the subtropical ridging over
southeastern portions of CONUS will just clip our region as the
ridging edges west over portions of Texas. Below normal temperatures
will be no more as increasing heights from the ridging will increase
temperatures back into the mid to upper 90s for most of the region
through the the end of the week. Southerly surface winds are
expected to continue through the long term package drawing in
moisture from the Gulf keeping dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s
through the end of the week. Southerly surface upslope winds will
bring back shower and thunderstorms chances for the far southern
Texas Panhandle and northern portions of the South Plains Wednesday
afternoon and evening along the western edge of a low-level jet that
develops over the region just after sunset and will persist
overnight. Shower and thunderstorm chances diminish to near zero as
the low-level jet weakens just before sunrise. A similar set up is
expected for Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening as models
indicate the low-level jet returns to the region each evening and
weakens before sunrise. The best chances for storms looks to be
Thursday with chances across much of the Caprock. Any storms that do
develop are expected to be sub-severe except for an isolated severe
wind gust or two. The main hazard with these storms will be periods
of heavy rainfall with PWATs over one inch. By the weekend, the
upper ridging will expand farther over the High Plains decreasing
storm chances to near zero through the weekend. Temperatures will
gradually warm through the weekend with some areas off the Caprock
reach 3 digits early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Isolated thunderstorms are possible at all sites through around
sunset, however confidence is too low to include in the TAFs.
Otherwise, VFR and light winds will continue.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...19