583
FXUS64 KLUB 210325
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1025 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1020 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Rain chances appear favorable each day this upcoming work week

- Locally heavy rain with slow storm motion potential on Monday

- Cooler and cloudy than we`ve seen in quite a while by mid-week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

West to NW flow is in place for Monday morning as a storm system
tracks across the northern plains with another just offshore the
California coast. The latter low will move into Nevada by Tuesday
morning with a notable southwesterly flow event across the desert
southwest whilst we will be poised under a ridge of high pressure
extending from south TX up along the eastern slope of the Rockies.

Good agreement exists between global and CAM guidance regarding
storm potential on Monday.  It would look as if areas near the I27
corridor stand the best opportunity for storms though given
performance as of late, just about any location in our CWFA has a
chance.  Admittedly, areas in our NE might have the best chance at
missing out. Forecast soundings do show some significant challenges
with a pronounced subsidence inversion above H7 at KLBB whilst KPVW
hints at a deep moist profile. With cloud bases near H8, some
downburst potential is warranted.  Shear profiles show about 30 KT
of bulk shear combining with 1000-1500 J/kg of energy.   Storm
motions may be exceedingly slow Monday afternoon, perhaps only
about 5KT at times. As such, locally heavy rainfall with a
conditional flooding potential will be possible. The warmest
areas will likely be across the southern South Plains and in the
eastern Rolling Plains seeing highs in the 90s and 80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The NV low will fill rapidly as it moves into the northern Rockies
though a trough will remain in place from near LAS southwestward
across SAN thence into the Pacific.  High pressure initially remains
a bit further west than previously forecast though a shift eastward
on Wednesday should allow better mid-level southwesterly flow to
overspread the region especially along the TX/NM state line.  This
general setup will remain in place through late this week though a
bit of a shift to more westerly directionality looks to occur by
Friday night. High pressure will build into Texas more squarely
over the weekend as a Pacific NW storm, initially making landfall
on Thursday, translates into the Canadian Prairies.

Monday evening, we`ll potentially be dealing with a weak back door
front.  This is most prolifically noted in the NAM but hints (albeit
much weaker) do appear in the GFS/ECM guidance as well.  This could
help to keep storm chances going well into the evening and possibly
shifting south into the Permian Basin though that remains quite
uncertain given the overarching variance in evolutionary solutions.
Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to have rain opportunities
though guidance generally favors ERN NM.  Still our western counties
look to have the best precipitation chances Wed, Thu, and Fri.  At
this point, Saturday looks much drier.  Storm activity this week has
the tendency to be predominantly late afternoon through the
overnight hours thence waning by mid morning.  Plenty of uncertainty
exists with this batch of monsoon moisture, but as mentioned above,
the west looks wetter than our east. Periods of heavy rain will be
possible.  Cooler and cloudy conditions will accompany the
thunderstorm chances yielding more cloud cover than we`ve seen in
a while.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Outside of a stray SHRA or TS overnight near any of the terminals,
the main aviation impact will be MVFR to borderline IFR ceilings
affecting CDS Monday morning following a cold front. These should
fall short of PVW before mixing out to VFR at CDS by early
afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26