259
FXUS64 KLUB 180514
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1214 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

 - Highs in the 90s continue through Sunday until a cooldown next
   week.

 - Few storms near the NM border Friday night before chances
   improve this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A stout upper high poised near Texarkana late this evening remains
on track to slowly weaken and become more compacted through Friday
night over the DFW area. This decay is thanks in large part to an
upper low across the Great Basin moving east and phasing with a
series of monsoonal disturbances as far south as northwest Mexico.
This stream of unsettled SW flow aloft will occupy much of New
Mexico through Friday evening where the greatest focus for storms
is expected, but some of these shower and storm remnants may
drift into our far W-NW counties Friday night where we continue to
advertise low PoPs. The environment over the remainder of the CWA
will remain too hostile for precip through Friday night thanks to
mid-level subsidence with notable capping around H7. Meanwhile in
the lower levels, a near repeat of Thursday is expected with
dewpoints mixing into the upper 50s/low 60s which should be enough
for scattered cumulus as highs reach into the 90s across the
board.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A welcome pattern change remains in the offing complete with cooler
temps next week and daily chances for rain starting on Saturday.
This is all tied to a weakening upper high that drifts into East
Texas before holding close to the Louisiana Gulf Coast for much
of next week. This opens our door to varying degrees of monsoon
moisture - initially Saturday afternoon and evening and perhaps a
more potent version by the middle of next week. Models are in
overall good agreement with this larger pattern, but the finer
mesoscale details that determine precip potential and ultimately
how much rain falls remain unclear. This uncertainty is already a
factor as soon as Saturday due to a fair amount of spread in
storm potential accompanying the arrival of the monsoonal moisture
plume over the Caprock. Combined with a surface trough draped SW-
NE over the Caprock, a weak shortwave trough in southwesterly
flow, PWATs running on average 0.5" above normal, and ample
heating, the pros outweigh the cons for scattered to possibly
numerous afternoon and evening storms. Despite these favorable
signals, some CAMs are curiously stingy with precip on Saturday
which is not a theme shared by ensembles and global models, or
our forecast for that matter.

Weak subsidence following Saturday`s shortwave could stunt
background ascent for Sunday, but we`ll keep a mention of PoPs
(highest off the Caprock) as some models favor another, albeit
weaker, upper trough or MCV drifting northeast from the Upper
Trans-Pecos. Daily PoPs continue thereafter under an increasingly
unsettled SW flow that turns much richer with monsoon moisture and
perhaps some eastern Pacific tropical moisture. Whether or not a
weak cold front sags south from the TX Panhandle on Monday remains
to be seen, but at the very least an uptick in cloud cover and
lower thicknesses through the week will secure cooler temperatures
for a change.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

South winds and VFR will continue at all TAF sites.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...30