254
FXUS64 KLUB 300539
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1239 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms will continue over much of the
   region through early this morning with locally heavy rain
   possible.

 - Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected from
   late this afternoon through tonight, with locally heavy
   rainfall possibly resulting in a few instances of flash
   flooding.

 - Low storm chances continue through much of the upcoming week with
   temperatures near or slightly below average.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Flat ridging aloft persists early this morning over northern Mexico
and adjacent portions of southern AZ/NM/TX with generally zonal
mid/upper level flow in place over most of the Rockies as a result.
Deep convection enhanced by a modest H3 jet streak and broad
monsoonal moisture plume oriented roughly along and just east of the
Continental Divide is ongoing, and is expected to continue in at
least scattered fashion over the South Plains region through much of
the remainder of the overnight period before dissipating by sunrise.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty with the forecast for the rest
of today with model spread regarding with the eventual coverage and
timing of deep convection having increased compared to prior
forecasts. The above-mentioned ridging aloft is progged to shift
slightly southeastward through the day, with flow aloft
strengthening and veering more west-northwesterly in response to a
slow-moving upper shortwave over the central plains states. There is
still decent potential for a round of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon through this evening essentially
anywhere across the forecast area, but predictability of precise
location and coverage is unfortunately still quite low given
uncertainty of how quickly the airmass recovers in the wake of the
overnight/morning storms and how far into the morning low cloud
cover persists. Will keep daytime PoPs fairly broad for the time
being until confidence improves, but at this point it looks like
rainfall this afternoon and early evening will be quite hit or miss.
Temperature-wise, we expect today to be a bit cooler than average
for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Confidence in thunderstorm potential this evening into late tonight
is also unfortunately quite low. An influential factor in the
positioning and coverage of storms tonight will be the location of
the deep monsoonal moisture plume, which model consensus currently
suggests will be over southern portions of the South Plains and
Rolling Plains and adjacent portions of the TX Big Country. As such,
the highest storm chances now look focused over southern portions of
our forecast area. Most synoptic models now also suggest that large
scale forcing for ascent will be relatively weak and will be
displaced to the north of the best moisture. Consequently,
confidence in widespread storms tonight is lower than in previous
forecasts, but it still looks likely that we see at least scattered
activity overnight with storms again looking to be generally hit or
miss. Heavy rain will be possible beneath any strong storms given
PWATs near 1.5" (about 125% of normal), but the threat for flash
flooding looks like it will be localized at this time with
convection decreasing in coverage by sunrise on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

After an active start to the holiday weekend, generally calmer
weather is expected beginning on Sunday. The main synoptic feature
of interest for the second half of the weekend through much of next
week will be a highly amplified mid/upper level ridge axis which
will persist from the Four Corners northwestward over the
Intermountain West. Simultaneously, deep cyclonic flow aloft will
overspread most of the eastern half of the CONUS which will
consequently keep a belt of relatively strong northwesterly upper
level flow in place over West Texas. Despite the favorable
prevailing flow aloft, model consensus points to the bulk of
meaningful moisture remaining mostly to our west, displaced from the
train of shortwave disturbances farther east. Although isolated to
perhaps scattered storms are possible each evening and overnight
within this setup, the signal for widespread convection is minimal
and will keep PoPs on the low side at this time. The synoptic setup
of ridging to our west and broad troughing to our east will prevent
any extremes temperature-wise, with highs expected to remain near or
slightly below normal through at least the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Thunderstorms the immediate concern with quite a bit of activity
in the Lubbock area and more TS west of KLBB and KPVW working
their way eastward. Biggest question is at KCDS where TS is much
more uncertain. For now have removed mention, but will watch
precip across the Texas Panhandle and to the west near KPVW for
possible reinsertion. Focus then shifts to low clouds with
expectation of IFR to MVFR ceilings spreading across much of the
area again before breaking up mid to late morning Saturday.
Questions abound about timing and extent of TS Saturday afternoon
and evening. Much will depend upon final location of lingering
outflow boundaries and extent of low and mid cloud cover and their
possible limiting of fuel for Saturday`s storms. Will leave
mention out for now and reevaluate in later cycles.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07