001
FXUS64 KLUB 130457
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1157 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1153 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Tuesday will be the last warm day before cooling to more fall
  like temperatures through the rest of the week.

- A strong storm system will bring an unsettled weather pattern
  beginning Tuesday afternoon.

- Severe thunderstorms and flooding will be possible Tuesday
  afternoon through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

As previously expected, widely isolated thunderstorms have developed
across eastern New Mexico along a theta-e axis. Due to a lack of
upper level support and general instability, these storms are having
a hard time sustaining themselves and are short lived. A few storms
are likely to move into our western zones early this morning before
quickly dissipating. The severe threat with this activity remains
low. A lull in storm activity is expected through much of the day
after sunrise until the late afternoon. Models have been in
decent agreement with having an upper shortwave trough move over
the region helping to enhance upper lift. Overall lift will not be
overly exciting, but it will be enough for storm development when
combined with rich moisture both in the low and mid levels and
surface convergence along a dryline-like surface feature. Where
this feature will ultimately develop is still in question, though
the general consensus between models is near to east of the
I27/US87 corridor. A LLJ will help to sustain overnight
convection. There is a marginal to slight risk for severe storms
this evening through the overnight hours with the main threat
being severe wind gusts from wet microbursts. Also prevalent will
be the potential for flooding. Storm motion will be from southwest
to northeast, parallel with the upper flow. There will be a
decent potential for training storms, and heavy rainfall will be
very possible given PWATs near or over 1.75 inches, 90% or higher
than average for this time of year. Overall confidence in rainfall
amounts and especially storm location is still too low for any
flooding headlines at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Stronger lift will arrive Wednesday morning as the Texas gulf coast
ridge slides east with the western US trough slowly moving eastward
across the Intermountain West. Severe chances are unclear for
Wednesday with expected ongoing precipitation and expected cloud
cover. The most pressing issue, however, will be the threat for
heavy rainfall through the day on Wednesday and on Thursday.
Moisture will definitely not be an issue for precipitation chances
from Wednesday through Thursday. Periods of lift are expected along
with an intruding cold front which is difficult to pinpoint at this
time scale in the forecast. The threat for heavy rainfall on Tuesday
afternoon/evening appears to be minimal given that storms are
expected to be moving quick enough to prevent widespread heavy
rainfall. Precipitable water values were already near maximum values
from latest raobs and these values are expected to only climb higher
over the next few days. Mean precipitable water values from ensemble
guidance is near or exceeds two inches in some areas off the caprock
which is already a high amount for summer months. But this is
October, which places these values in record territory. These values
drop to around 1.50 inches near the I-27 corridor but these values
still exceed the 99th percentile for October. Furthermore, mixing
ratios at 850mb will surge to near 16 g/kg by Tuesday afternoon.
This amount of moisture is due to the low level flow from the gulf
combined with mid and upper level moisture from Hurricane Simon off
the coast of western Mexico. All that being said, the main forecast
issue will be timing of lift to act upon this abundant moisture from
Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. With the expected
cloud cover and precipitation, temperatures have been adjusted
downward from blended guidance on Wednesday and Thursday.

Models now show fairly good agreement in pinching off an upper low
across the southwestern US from this trough as the remainder of the
trough gets swept up with another trough dropping southeast through
the Great Lakes. It is this Canadian trough that will provide us
with our first strong cold front of the season. Exact timing of the
front is uncertain given that it is still at least 5-6 days away.
Nonetheless, the front will bring strong winds its immediate wake.
Models are depicting a 1040mb surface ridge behind this front
dropping into the Plains Friday and Saturday. Current forecast
morning temperatures next weekend are in the 40s with 30s in the
southwestern Texas Panhandle but could likely drop lower with
subsequent forecasts given the strength of this surface high.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

MVFR CIGs are possible at KPVW and KLBB in the hours around and
after sunrise this morning. Otherwise VFR and light southerly
winds will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...19