068
FXUS64 KLUB 232306
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
606 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 602 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

 - Hot conditions continue Thursday with isolated thunderstorms
   over the Rolling Plains.

 - Thunderstorm chances increase Friday afternoon and evening,
   including potential for damaging winds and heavy rain.

 - Drier and hotter next week with Heat Advisories possible off
   the Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

A 597dm-ish upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather
pattern in the short term. The center of the ridge will make a
slight jog to the west this afternoon after being centered directly
overhead this morning. At the same time, a short wave trough will be
moving around the ridge moving from the central Rockies onto the
Central Plains. However, convective activity from this short wave
will only extend southward into the northern Texas Panhandle.
Therefore, any large scale ascent will be lacking this afternoon and
evening. Low level winds will remain backed out of the southeast off
the caprock with more southerly winds on the caprock. This will
result in very weak low level convergence possibly extending to
areas into the eastern South Plains. A narrow low level theta-e
ridge will exist roughly centered around the US Highway 83 corridor
early this afternoon shifting westward late afternoon through early
evening. Surface dew points will mix out some this afternoon after
morning dew points in the lower 70s off the caprock. Nonetheless,
mixed layer instability values are progged to peak around 2000 J/kg
within this low level theta-e axis. Any storms that develop will be
similar to what was observed yesterday. Very little flow within the
atmospheric column will bring brief pulse type thunderstorms. High
cloud bases will also bring the potential for strong to marginally
severe wind gusts in the vicinity of any convection.

As the upper ridge continues to move farther west, chances will
increase in northwest flow convection for Friday. Higher chances for
convection will exist on Friday afternoon and evening in close
proximity to a surface trough that will be draped northeast to
southwest from the central Texas Panhandle into southeastern New
Mexico. The low level theta-e axis will follow close to the surface
trough but with less instability than expected today. However, the
increased low level convergence will result in higher chances of
convection mostly for areas on the caprock into the southwestern
Texas Panhandle. More pulse type convection can be expected with
little flow in the atmosphere in close proximity to the upper level
ridge. Lastly, very hot temperatures will not go anywhere with
forecast apparent temperatures close to the 105 degree mark off the
caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Saturday may see some additional convective development with
lingering mid level moisture overhead. The upper level ridge will
only make slight adjustments through the middle of next week keeping
temperatures very warm across the FA although these forecast
temperatures look to be short of records by several degrees.
Convection will be kept at bay underneath the strength of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Thunderstorms will persist around KCDS for the next couple of
hours. Gusty and erratic winds are possible with these storms.
Otherwise, VFR and light southerly winds will continue.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-
037-038-042>044.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ024>026-031-
032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...19