835
FXUS64 KLUB 122312
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
612 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

 - Showers will continue through the evening with storm chances
   increasing tonight and continuing through early Tuesday
   morning.

 - Breezy and warm weather is forecast through the middle and end
   of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

With our region slotted between an upper trough overtaking western
CONUS and upper ridging over southeast portions of Texas,
southwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the rest of today and
into tomorrow as a bowling upper low swings south along the Pacific
Northwest coast. Moisture in the mid/upper levels has filled in over
the region with southwesterly flow aloft. Current KLBB radar shows
showers tracking northeast across the South Plains and far southern
Texas Panhandle. This pattern aloft will continue to fill in
mid/upper level moisture prolonging and expand storm chances
eastward through the evening and overnight. Mostly virga showers are
expected through the rest of the afternoon as soundings indicate
drier lower levels. This will change this evening as a shortwave
perturbation tracking over the region in the upper level flow will
increase chances of precipitation and bring the possibility of an
isolated thunderstorm or two. An upper jet setting up over the
region and the abundance of mid/upper level moisture, shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue overnight into Monday. With
little instability and low shear values, severe weather is not
expected with any thunderstorms that do develop, however a strong
wind gust or two cannot be ruled out. A cold front is progged to
track through the Texas Panhandle Monday. Models indicate the front
will barely reach our northwestern zones Monday morning where it
looks to stall and die out. The front and mostly cloudy skies
through much of the day over the far southern Texas Panhandle and
portions of the South Plains will give a wide range of high
temperatures Monday. Northwestern counties will see highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s while southeastern counties will see highs in
the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually dissipate east to
west overnight Monday into Tuesday morning as the upper shortwave
moves away from the region in northern flow. We will begin to see
drier and warmer conditions by the middle of the week as the upper
ridging to the east will retrograde back over the region
Wednesday. Slight thickness increases will warm temperatures back
into the 80s and 90s for the latter half of the week. The upper
bowling low mentioned in the short term discussion will finally
translate over CONUS off the shore of California and continue to
track east over the Intermountain West before swinging north
towards Canada over the Dakotas. As the upper low tracks through
central CONUS, the upper ridging will get pushed eastward away
from the region again. Although, the upper pattern shifted,
southwesterly flow aloft will prevail through this weekend. Height
and thickness decreases will gradually cool temperatures over the
weekend, although some areas, especially off the Caprock will
continue to see highs well above seasonal normal. Breezy southerly
winds will be possible every afternoon through Thursday in
response to tightening in the pressure gradient from a lee surface
trough north of the region. With the warmer temperatures, breezy
winds and minimum RH values lower than 25 percent, elevated fire
weather conditions will be possible Wednesday and Thursday. Models
indicate the possibility for precipitation chances to return
Thursday ahead of a Pacific front that is progged to track
eastward through the region. However, NBM continues with near zero
PoPs for this forecast package. As this is still a few days out
and timing of the front is uncertain at the moment, will keep NBM
PoPs as is, however can expect that to change for future forecast
packages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Moisture will continue to stream overhead in advance of an upper
level storm system off the west coast. Periods of rain showers
will likely occur during the morning hours on Monday into the
early afternoon. There is a slight chance of thunder with this
activity but chances are too low to mention in the TAF. CIGS could
lower to MVFR at all TAF sites with the periodic rain showers
expected on Monday.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01