627
FXUS64 KLUB 222327
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon across portions
of the forecast area. As of 2 PM CDT, the upper low is sitting over
northeast Colorado and is expected to continue ejecting
northeastward tonight into tomorrow. The 700mb trough axis
associated with the upper low will also move eastward tonight, with
increased southwesterly flow this afternoon/evening. Atmospheric
profiles have increased moisture from the surface to 700mb, which
can be seen with the recent increase in shower and storm activity
across the area. The cold front has been nearly stationary the
entire morning stretching from a mesolow in the Permian Basin and
northeastward across the far southern Rolling Plains. Thus, much of
the shower and storm activity today is post-frontal across the
forecast area. However, there is enough elevated instability present
this afternoon for a few strong to severe storms, especially east of
the I-27/HWY-87 corridor. Main threats would be hail up to quarter
size and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Heavy rainfall may be possible as
well with PWATs around 1.5" to 1.75" (highest farther east) across
the aforementioned area. Low clouds continue to persist through much
of the day today with tricky temperatures following the front. All
in all, temperatures have remained steady in the upper 50s to lower
60s across much of the forecast area where the clouds are present.

With continued rain chances through late tonight and cool northerly
surface winds, temperatures are expected to drop into the 40s and
lower 50s along the Caprock and mid to upper 50s off the Caprock.
Precipitation chances will taper tonight with clearing skies from
north to south into tomorrow morning. A very Fall-like day tomorrow
(only one day after the official first day of Fall), with
temperatures in the 70s, along with light and variable winds under
a weak surface high passing over the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

On Tuesday, we`ll see an upper-level trough and closed low diving
through the northern and Central Plains while a stout upper-level
ridge amplifies northward across the Rockies. At the surface, the
old frontal zone across south-central Texas will be washing out
and lee troughing will return to West Texas. With daytime heating
bringing temperatures back into the 80s there should be a decent
theta-e axis extending northward through the forecast area into
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. It appears that the lift from
upper trough and its accompanying front approaching from the north
should initiate some t-storm activity across the Panhandles
Tuesday afternoon. This activity would then progress south-
southeastward Tuesday afternoon and evening, favoring passing
through our counties in the Rolling Plains. The front will race
all the way to the Gulf Coast bringing cool surface ridging to our
area on Wednesday with highs likely not making it out of the 70s
to lower 80s with a little bit of uncertainty in temps based on
the extent of cloud cover. The latest model trends suggest the
upper flow will entered a blocky/stagnant pattern and the upper
low could wobble back westward as its flow interacts with a
tropical system in the northeastern Gulf. Although confidence in
the exact evolution of this unusual pattern is not high, we are
fairly confident that this will keep cool, east to northeasterly
flow in place across our area through Friday, and we may even have
a chance of moisture wrapping around the low and bringing rain
back into the forecast, at least to the eastern sections of the
forecast area. The latest GFS run supports this and its temps
have come in line with the cooler ECMWF and blended guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Precipitation will continue to shift further east of the terminals
in the near term with dry conditions expected at all sites
overnight. MVFR CIGs will persist at all terminals through at
least the next few hours, with LBB and CDS currently expected to
remain MVFR through early Monday morning. PVW has a better chance
of seeing more rapid lifting of CIGs overnight but the timing of
this is uncertain. VFR will return to the entire area by mid-
morning on Monday and will persist through the end of this TAF
cycle.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...30