014
FXUS64 KLUB 292344
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
644 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

 - Some strong and severe storms possible this afternoon and
   evening.

 - Dry and hotter this weekend, then cooling by middle of next
   week with daily rain chances developing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The biggest unknown today will be the extent that mid and high level
cloud cover will inhibit boundary layer mixing and therefore
convective initiation. At the upper levels of the atmosphere, the
nose of a 80-90kt jet will be edging into the region this afternoon.
Models show a weak short wave associated with this jet streak moving
overhead out of northern Mexico this afternoon. This shortwave may
be fairly difficult to locate in water vapor imagery among the
stream of mid and high level moisture. Large scale ascent from this
shortwave/jet streak will be the primary forcing for convection this
afternoon with a very diffuse looking dryline expected. Broad
southerly low level flow will bring little to no low level
convergence. Surface heating will be expected initiator of storms
this afternoon which, as previously mentioned, is a big uncertainty.
Some clearing is possible in eastern New Mexico as the mid/upper
level cloud shield advects farther eastward. An axis of higher low
level theta-e air will exist around the I-27/US87 corridor early
this afternoon and shift eastward with time. Some of the latest
model soundings have seemed to catch on to the lower mixing expected
under the thick cloud cover. Less surface heating may keep most of
the area capped although some model soundings show capping weakening
enough to possibly reach convective temperatures. Steep mid level
lapse rates between 7 to 8 C/km will bring mixed layer instability
values anywhere between 1000-2000 J/kg within the higher theta-e
axis. The increase in winds through the mid and upper troposphere
including 40kt winds at 500mb will bring stronger shear and greater
chances of storm organization with any storms that to develop.
Despite all of these concerning negative conditions, most latest CAM
guidance develops scattered convection over the western South Plains
between 3 and 4 pm.

Subsidence will sweep overhead on Saturday as the upper level jet
streak moves overhead and then east on Saturday afternoon. A strong
short wave trough will rotate out of the central Rockies into the
Central/Northern Plains on Saturday as well. This short wave
trough will induce surface cyclogenesis from eastern Colorado into
western Kansas which will in turn drag the dryline into the far
eastern Rolling Plains. Surface winds may remain backed near the
border of the FA with veered winds elsewhere. A small amount of
large scale ascent will remain over the Big Country into the far
southeastern Rolling Plains associated with the departing upper
level jet streak. This jet streak will be weakening with time but
the entrance region may still bring a brief period of lift to the
far southeastern Rolling Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Mid and upper level flow will remain backed out of the southwest on
Sunday with ridging moving overhead. They dryline will again be
favored to mix off the caprock Sunday afternoon but subsidence aloft
from the ridging may keep convective chances at subdued. Mostly
southwest flow aloft will continue through much of next week. This
will result in broad southeasterly upslope low level flow just about
each afternoon and daily chances of thunderstorms. Any short waves
aloft are too subtle to discern at this time scale but some
afternoons may be favored over others in the presence of any short
wave troughs. Increasing moisture by mid-week may keep temperatures
shy of the 90s during the second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The odds of isolated TSRA activity impacting any of the terminals
this evening are too small to mention in the TAF. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected with southerly breezes. A strong low-level
jet of 35 to 40 kts will develop tonight and produce LLWS
conditions at KCDS through early morning Saturday. A mid-lvl
cloud deck early Saturday may reduce mixing early, but by mid
afternoon we expect gusty southwest breezes on the Caprock,
approaching 20G30kt at KLBB and KPVW. There will also be a small
chance of TSRA in the vicinity of KCDS late Saturday afternoon and
evening.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...33