154
FXUS64 KLUB 180523
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1223 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are
  expected Saturday morning on the Caprock, mainly west of
  I-27/US-87.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
  area Saturday afternoon and evening. Severe storms are not
  expected, but storms could produce gusty winds and brief heavy
  downpours.

- Hot and dry conditions return next week, with highs generally in
  the upper 90s to low 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A broad upper-low centered over the Permian Basin Friday night will
slide northeastward on Saturday. As it does, a mid-level shear and
moisture axis will shift east over the western Panhandle and South
Plains. We expect that some showers and perhaps a t-storm or two
will develop underneath this axis Saturday morning across our
western counties. This activity should gradually wane in the late
morning. Then, underneath the relatively cooler pocket of air
aloft associated with the upper-low, we anticipate that diurnal
heating will kick off isolated to scattered shower and t-storm
development (about a 20-40% chance) across the forecast area
Saturday afternoon. It`s hard to pinpoint any particular focus for
development, aside from the topographically favored area around
Caprock Canyons. Warmer temperatures (highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s) will result in greater instability and potential for
some downburst wind gusts with any stronger storms. And with the
upper-low/shear axis still hanging out over the area Saturday
evening, we could see some lingering activity, the bulk of which
will likely gradually shift south-southwestward through the
evening.

Sunday, while the upper-low center should reform well off to our
southwest, we will maintain an upper trough axis and plentiful
lower and mid-level moisture across the area, so we would expect
it not to be completely dry. Although lift, shear and convergence
will be meager, conditions should support at least some isolated
late day activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Weak troughing aloft will persist into Monday, although by that
time the mid-levels start to really dry out and looks like we`ll
be commencing our extended dry period. Temperatures Sunday and
Monday will show a gradual warming trend but above normal...a
harbinger of the hot days to come...

By the middle of next week we are going to get a taste of the heat
that has been plaguing the northern states for the past week or so.
The upper high will shift southward, taking root over the Southern
Plains, and intensify. Tuesday should see a return of highs above
100F in the Rolling Plains and by Thursday highs at most
locations across the forecast area should be near 100F at
minimum. Heat Advisories will likely be needed for locations in
the Rolling Plains by Wed or Thu (and maybe a smaller heat
advisory needed for the hot Canyon areas in Briscoe and Hall
Counties as early as Tuesday).

Medium-range guidance indicates that the upper ridge will remain
nearly stationary through at least next Sunday, keeping the hot
and dry conditions going with little change day to day. Beyond
Sunday the 26th, guidance begins to diverge, with some (but not
all) solutions suggest that the ridge could begin to loosen its
grip on the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. There
is a low chance for isolated SHRA at KLBB around 12Z however, run
to run difference of models in addition to the placement of the
upper low has lead to low confidence. Will opt for no TAF mention
at this time.

As a reminder, KLBB ASOS will be offline between 01-13z for
maintenance. The contract weather observers on site should be
able to supplement the observations during the outage, maintaining
regular METAR issuance.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...12