285
FXUS64 KLUB 071105
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue this week, with record highs
  possible on Wednesday.

- Storm chances return Wednesday night and Thursday (20-30%
  chance).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

An expansive 500mb ridge remains anchored over the central CONUS
Sun evening, with 500mb heights around 592-593 dam over west
Texas. Precipitable water (PWAT) values were anomalously high
across both the northwest and southeast portions of the forecast
area Sun evening, but instability values remained low (generally
less than 1000 J/kg) and subsidence aloft kept the FA dry today.
High temps Sunday declined a few degrees from Saturday, which
itself was a few degrees cooler than Friday. Nevertheless, the
observed highs today were still 5-10 degrees above normal.

The upper pattern and resultant weather conditions are expected to
be very similar on Labor Day. Above normal temperatures, modest
southerly winds (10-15 mph sustained), scattered diurnal cumulus
(8- 10 kft AGL), and dry conditions are set to prevail once more.
Highs will be in the mid 90s on the Caprock and low 100s off the
Caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

An upper low currently evident in satellite imagery over the
Pacific NW will be the driver of a potential mid-week front and
associated precip chances. In advance of this front, the upper low
emerging onto the northern Plains will act to flatten and confine
the upper ridge to the southern Plains. Despite this, the ridge
strengthens during the Tues-Wed timeframe, with 500mb values
increasing to the 596-598 dam range. Such values are approaching
the local max of the model climatology for this time of year,
which lends support to the near-record to record highs delivered
by the model blend. The most likely day for potential record heat
is Wed (9/9), which happens to have cooler record highs than the
surrounding days. The record highs for Wed in Lubbock and
Childress are 99F and 102F, respectively, and the latest forecast
values are 97F and 102F.

In response to that upper disturbance, a sfc low will track across
the Canadian Prairie, while a sprawling cold front arcs well
southward onto the central Plains by Wed. Latest guidance suggests
the front will still mainly be north of our area on Wed, keeping
the precip chances (20-30%) primarily across the TX Panhandle. By
Thurs, the center of the upper ridge shifts towards the Four
Corners, placing West Texas in NW flow aloft as models nudge the
front south into our FA. The presence of this front and the
slightly more favorable upper conditions support mentionable
precip on Thurs (20- 30% chance). Despite the potential for
precip, the model blend keeps the hot, above normal temps in place
for Thurs (and into the weekend).

Late in the forecast period, attention turns to the evolution of
yet another upper low over the Pacific NW. While there is
potential for a noticeable cool down in west Texas early next
week, considerable spread exists regarding the timing and strength
of this system. As such, forecast confidence beyond Saturday is
lower than usual for the Days 7-10 range (Sep 13-16). One way to
quantify this uncertainty is by looking at the the NBM 25th-75th
percentile spread. For the high temperatures, this spread is 10-15
degF (low 80s to mid 90s for Lubbock). This tells us that 50% of
the individual members have high temps outside of this already
broad range. It will be an intriguing period of the forecast to
monitor and see how the ensemble guidance evolves over the next
few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...51