083
FXUS64 KLUB 232306
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
606 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

 - Highest chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday
   with locally heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Cloud cover is currently increasing over our area in southwesterly
flow ahead of an upper trough tracking over the Intermountain West.
As such, highs will be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday,
although still slightly above average ranging from the mid 70s on
the Caprock to low 80s off the Caprock. A resultant surface low
will develop downstream in the lee of the Rockies this afternoon.
Southerly winds will subsequently increase, potentially gusting
up to 30 mph for areas on the Caprock. Winds will diminish
overnight into Saturday, with lows in the mid-to-upper 50s. Split
upper flow will develop on Saturday with a low becoming cutoff
over Arizona. As is moves northeastward over the Four Corners
region, the moisture fetch out ahead of it looks to reach the
TX/NM border by evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will slowly spread eastward overnight
Saturday into Sunday, but should primarily stay along and west of
I-27. The severe threat is low, however locally heavy rainfall is
possible, particularly with training storms. Modest steering flow
however should keep them moving at a decent pace. Once the low
reaches central Colorado, it will take a more easterly track and
associated precipitation should overspread much of the area by
Sunday evening. The remains some uncertainty with regards to the
exact timing, however overall totals do not appear to be
significant. Current model average indicates around 0.5-0.75"
along the TX/NM border and gradually tapering off to the east. Off
and on showers and thunderstorms will continue Monday, before
diminishing in coverage through Tuesday as the low finally departs
off to our north and east. The associated cold front does not
appear to be as strong now as was indicated on previous models.
There will be a slight cool-down, however now highs look to only
fall into upper 60s and low 70s Sunday though Tuesday before
returning to the mid 70s by mid-week under a ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions will continue into the overnight hours. There is
confidence of lowered ceilings and MVFR conditions between late
morning and early afternoon tomorrow affecting KLBB, and
potentially reaching the edge of KPVW. These conditions are
expected to clear out through the afternoon for all stations.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93