150
FXUS64 KLUB 011814
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
114 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 113 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

 - Much cooler Friday with cloudy skies and scattered showers.

 - Gradually warming, but generally cooler and drier conditions
   this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The center of the upper low is currently over the northwestern Texas
Panhandle and is slowly transitioning to an open wave trough. Low
clouds are currently pushing southward across the western Texas
Panhandle and should eventually spread across the FA tonight through
Friday as the axis of the upper trough moves over the region and a
cold front pushes through the FA. Some isolated to scattered rain
showers will be possible, especially as the cold front moves through
the region. Overnight temps will be similar to slightly cooler than
this morning. While the cold front will move through before
midnight, cloud cover will prevent much of the radiational cooler
that was observed this morning, and this cold front is a weak early
season front (highly modified). Cloud cover will, however, keep
highs on the cool side Friday with most of the FA remaining in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The upper trough will become separated from the main upper flow by
Saturday and will help to form a very weak blocking pattern as an
upper high builds over the western CONUS. This will only last
through Saturday as the trough dissipates. A series of weak fronts
will help to keep highs mostly in the 70s through mid week even as
the upper ridge builds slightly. This will be aided by upper flow
mostly out of the northwest. Some guidance, mainly the NBM, have
upper highs reaching back into the upper 80s/low 90s by the end of
the forecast period, but the overall pattern (north to northwest
upper flow and weak cold front) would moreso support highs in the
70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through 00Z. MVFR to
possibly IFR CIGs are likely after 00Z and will remain through the
rest of the TAF cycle. Currently, the PVW AWOS is reporting CIGs
of BKN029, but live webcam feed from PVW shows SCT. The TAF will
therefore continue to reflect VFR CIGs.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...51