201
FXUS64 KLUB 261830
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
130 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 128 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

 - Slight chance for severe thunderstorms with the potential for
   large hail and severe winds gusts across the Rolling Plains
   late this afternoon and evening.

 - An upper pattern change will bring cooler temperatures and
   daily precipitation chances next week.

 - The potential for widespread heavy rainfall continues to look
   increasingly possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Skies have mostly cleared through the afternoon after a round of
showers and thunderstorms moved through the northern half of the FA.
A surface boundary stretching from Graham to near Childress is
evident on both VIS imagery and surface observations. This boundary
is the focus for convective development late this afternoon into the
evening hours. The overall severe threat is low, but a few storms
across our far eastern zones could be strong to severe and produce
hail up to 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Storms
should be east of the FA by midnight. Upper ridging will move
overhead late tonight and will keep precip out of the forecast
Sunday and warm afternoon temps into the mid 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Upper ridging will begin to push eastward Monday with the ridge axis
being well east of the FA by Monday afternoon. An upper low will
push southward along the West Coast during this time before pushing
eastward early Tuesday. This will set the stage for an increasingly
more likely heavy rain event Tuesday into Wednesday. The upper low
will tap both Gulf moisture and deep, rich moisture from both
tropical systems in the eastern Pacific. The first round of heavy
rainfall will occur across the Four Corners region late Monday with
chances increasing eastward Tuesday as the upper low begins moving
across the Desert Southwest. Rain chances, at least potential for
heavy rainfall, will eventually move east of the FA by Thursday as
the upper low begins to move over the Southern Plains. Some wrap-
around showers are possible Thursday afternoon and evening, but this
will be generally light. A potential twist in the forecast is the
possibility for a cold front to move into the FA ahead of the upper
low as the GFS continues to show. While the front progged by the GFS
is much weaker than it has been in recent runs, it would still be
enough to provide enhanced lift to what will already be excellent
upper level lift and will further increase the threat for heavy
rainfall. There is still uncertainty in regards to timing of
rainfall in addition to the actual path and forward speed of the
upper low. This will significantly impact where the heaviest
rainfall will occur. Regardless, this system bares watching with
hydrological highlights being needed over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

The early-day convection that affected the terminals has raced off
to the northeast leaving VFR in place early this afternoon.
Additional isolated to scattered convection is expected to develop
in the Rolling Plains by late this afternoon, but the current
expectation is that it remains east and south of the terminals.
Only CDS has an outside chance of impacts from any late-day
convection. Otherwise, southwesterly to westerly breezes will be
the rule through the afternoon, becoming light and somewhat
variable overnight. There is a low chance of patchy fog/stratus
development toward Sunday morning, but odds of sub-VFR at any of
the terminals is too low for a mention in the TAFs.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...23