596
FXUS64 KLUB 112317
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
517 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

 - Near-record high temperatures are forecast to close out the
   work week.

 - Very low rain chances for rain showers remain forecast late
   this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Dry conditions will continue today with near record or record warmth
this afternoon. A surface pressure trough and surface cyclogenesis
across eastern New Mexico will bring breezy downsloping winds today
giving the temperatures a healthy boost. Upper ridging will move
more inland from the west coast with the axis centered over the
Intermountain West tonight. A weak short wave trough will be moving
through the east side of the ridge early Wednesday morning. There
will be a fairly healthy increase in winds to 55-60kt with this
feature but will place West Texas under large scale subsidence.
However, more notable will be a weak cold front to move through the
region early Wednesday morning. A weak surface pressure gradient
behind the front will bring a reduction in winds but wind direction
will be out of the northeast allowing for below record temperatures
on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-levels will feature a
longwave ridge, with a bifurcated jet stream translating through its
apex, shifting eastward over North America. The CWA will be located
beneath the exit region of the southern-stream jet streak, where a
strong subsidence layer will descend through the mid-levels as the
apex moves over W TX. The resultant geopotential height rises, in
addition to weak, leeward pressure falls generated from a lee
cyclone in the higher terrain of eastern NM, will garner the
potential for near-record high temperatures Thursday. A shield of
cirrus may inhibit the full extent of insolation from occurring, but
regardless, the west-southwesterly breeze will enhance the effects
of adiabatic warming of the boundary-layer. Mixing heights should
ascend to near 700 mb before encountering the subsidence layer, with
highs forecast to peak in the lower-middle 80s. A persistence
forecasting technique was applied to Friday, with highs forecast to
be a few degrees warmer, as the mid/upper-level ridge begins to
amplify and surface winds back towards the southwest.

As the weekend nears, the split-flow regime over the 49th parallel
will begin to phase, as an intense, shortwave trough digs
southeastward over the Pacific Coast and develops a closed low while
attaining a neutral-tilt. The well-defined PV anomaly embedded
within this shortwave trough is forecast to become increasingly
stretched due to the progressive state of the flow over the far
northern Pacific Ocean, with evidence among the global NWP guidance
pointing towards the potential for the closed low embedded within
the shortwave trough to become temporarily cut-off. Should the
closed low become cut-off, then a longer delay in the ejection of
the system would follow. (All cut-off lows are closed, but not all
closed lows are cut-off.) Irrespective of this scenario, it appears
that a tropopause fold may occur over the Desert Southwest, with the
circulation remaining closed through 200 mb. Therefore, a much
slower progression of this system is forecast either way, with PoPs,
which remain low, not arriving until Sunday the earliest. The closed
low is forecast to transition into an open trough at some point this
weekend, which will dictate its track as it begins to eject over the
southern Rocky Mountains. Cooler temperatures are forecast Sunday
and into early next week following the eventual passage of the
Pacific cold front, but PoPs of any kind remain highly uncertain.
________________________________

High temperature records for Thursday, November 13th; and Friday,
November 14th, 2025:

The record high temperatures for Thursday at CDS and LBB are 87 and
82 degrees, respectively; and each were set in 1973, with highs of
82 and 85 degrees forecast, respectively. The record highs for
Friday at CDS and LBB are 88 and 85 degrees, respectively; and each
were set before World War II, or 1932 and 1933, respectively. Highs
of 86 degrees are forecast at both locations Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...51