Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
728 FXUS64 KLUB 270538 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1138 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1124 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 - Near or just below normal temperatures expected Thursday and Friday. - Shower and thunderstorms possible over the southern Rolling Plains Friday afternoon and evening. - Cold front Saturday will bring much cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1124 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Northwesterly flow aloft over our area will gradually weaken and back to a more zonal direction throughout the course of the day as a weak mid/upper level ridge currently over the Great Basin flattens and shifts eastward. This will result in a slight increase in midlevel heights which will in turn bring slightly warmer temperatures to the region compared to yesterday with afternoon highs right around normal for this time of year. This together with light winds and plenty of sunshine will make for a very pleasant Thanksgiving Day weather-wise across West TX. High-level cloud cover will then increase this evening into tonight as a weak upper level disturbance approaches. This will result in a milder overnight period with lows mainly in the mid 30s with dry conditions continuing into Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1124 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Main focus for the long term forecast will be cooler temperatures and active weather this weekend. We will start the long term forecast with mostly mild weather on Friday. A lee surface trough will develop over Colorado, tightening the pressure gradient effectively increasing winds through the afternoon with speeds up to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph possible before weakening through the evening. Efficient WAA from breezy southerly surface winds will bring shower and thunderstorm chances to southern portions of the Rolling Plains Friday afternoon and evening. However, most of the storm activity is expected to remain to the south and east of our CWA. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the evening but most activity is expected to dissipate around midnight. Sadly, models have backed off precipitation chances for early next week. An upper low pushing on shore over the Pacific Northwest early Friday will transition to an open trough as it translates over the Rockies. As this upper trough continues to trek east, an associated cold front is progged to push southward through the FA Saturday morning. NBM continues to be slow with the timing of the front, therefore overestimating temperatures. Saturday temperatures were adjusted using NBM25th with highs in the lower 50s over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and mid 60s over southern Rolling Plains. Prevailing northeasterly surface winds and prolonged cloud cover will keep Sunday and Monday much cooler with highs in the 40s across the region with some localized highs in the upper 30s. There is a small difference between models in the upper pattern for Monday. GFS and ECMWF are in agreement with a secondary upper trough translating over western CONUS over the weekend, however there is slight disagreement with timing and placement of the upper system. ECMWF is quicker with the trough tracking just north of the CWA while GFS is slower and brings the southern portion of the trough overhead. Either synoptic set up does indicate precipitation chances to the far southeastern Texas Panhandle early Monday morning. NBM seems to have caught up with the models, therefore the slight chance PoPs over our northeastern zones will be kept as is. However, as mentioned in previous discussions, can still expect changes for future forecasts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 VFR and light winds are expected to prevail at all terminals throughout this TAF period. Some lower stratus may develop through the early morning hours, but CIGs will remain VFR. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...30