Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
302 FXUS64 KLUB 061855 RRA AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 153 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1243 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Slight chance for non-severe showers and thunderstorms Monday evening, persisting through Tuesday and Wednesday. - A cold front, currently parked across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle, will surge southward tonight bringing cooler temperatures to the region for Tuesday. - Much warmer and drier Thursday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Isolated showers do not want to give up early this afternoon with current KLBB radar imagery depicted isolated showers translating east across the Caprock. These showers are expected to diminish through the early afternoon, but have made some modifications from the NBM silent PoPs through the 18Z period, to show 15% isolated showers along the I-27 corridor. Additionally, satellite imagery shows the cold front extending from a line from Muleshoe to Silverton to Lelia Lake. Due to the lack of stronger wind speeds behind the front, the current expectation is for the front to remain near stationary progressing very little southward over the next 6 hours or so. Therefore, a large gradient in temperatures is expected this afternoon with highs behind the front ranging in the 70s while highs out ahead of the front climb into the 80s to lower 90s. There is the potential for highs to be cooler than the reflected forecast highs as we see cloud cover linger, especially for areas across the Caprock. If these clouds decide to stick around longer than anticipated we could see highs closer to the NAM, ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across the aforementioned area. The front looks to become reinforced by the late evening as the surface highs shifts southward, making its way into the LBB area around midnight and through southern portions of the FA through the overnight period. As post frontal winds shift out of the northeast the cooler airmass to the north will begin to settle into the region. Winds will then begin to slowly veer, becoming easterly by late morning, which combined with increased moisture at the surface to mid-levels will allow for low-level stratus to develop and potentially stick around through at least the early afternoon before we begin to see a break in the clouds and ultimately taper off. NBM seems to not have the best handle on this scenario, so made a few hand adjustments to the sky grids. Due to this, we went ahead and also trended cooler with Tuesday highs as well, as 84 degrees in Lubbock seemed far too high. Blended in CONSMOS and NBM forecast percentile for the best depiction of cooler highs in the mid to upper 60s across the far southwestern Panhandle and low to mid 80s across the southeastern Rolling Plains. As for precipitation chances across the area, not much of a change was made from the previous forecast in the short term package. After lingering showers this morning, an additional and better chance for precipitation returns for portions of the FA by this evening as an upper level disturbance moves closer to the region. Unfortunately, the best chance for beneficial rainfall looks to remain focused to our west and north, which will keep best chances across our FA fixated across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Expect these showers and occasional thunderstorms to track northeast through the area through the overnight period through much of Tuesday. Lack of instability across the area will lead to the severe storm potential remaining quite low with the biggest threat being occasional brief heavy downpours. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 After one more cool and semi-cloudy day on Wednesday with some morning showers to boot near the NM border, things take a turn for the worse thereafter as a H5 high blossoms over the Big Bend and amplifies through the end of the week to around 5920 meters which is almost 100 meters above normal for early October. The H7 high will unfortunately be centered in or very near our backyard from Thursday through Saturday allowing for toasty highs running 10-15 degrees above normal. Even though the mid-level ridge departs to our east by Sunday ahead of increasingly deeper and stronger WSW flow, the NBM favors the hottest temps this day courtesy of breezier downslope flow which could offset the modest cooling aloft. In some ways, this looks like a near repeat of this past weekend when breezy SW winds unfolded behind the upper ridge and kept high temps well above normal. Wildfire activity has been ticking up lately and this prolonged dry and unusually warm pattern would only boost this threat by the weekend provided breezy winds develop. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 VFR with a few SHRA from LBB-PVW early this afternoon. A cold front slowing near PVW will resume its southward push tonight ahead of moistening NE winds and a threat for some low CIGs by Tuesday morning. At present, PVW holds the best chance of MVFR or lower CIGs after 12Z Tue, but uncertainty is too much to include at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...93