875
FXUS64 KLUB 301712
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

 - Isolated to scattered storms possible this evening across the
   low-lying Rolling Plains. Heavy rainfall along with large hail,
   strong wind gusts, and the potential for a tornado or two
   remains possible.

 - Cooler and drier conditions arrive Thursday, behind a cold
   front, with highs in the 60s and 70s through the weekend.

 - Mostly dry the remainder of the week into early next week,
   although we cannot rule out an daily afternoon isolated storm
   or two as weak disturbances track through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning shows the upper level low
spiraling into central New Mexico, while remnants of TD Polo eject
into portions of the Southern Plains. As a result, the forecast area
has seen a decrease in synoptic scale lift and moisture, as drier
air filters into the region analyzed by WV imagery. Which has lead
to a decrease in precipitation across much of the area this morning.
Regardless, areas across the Caprock saw beneficial rainfall nearing
4" across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle while other areas
across the FA saw amounts close to .25" to an inch or so. Much of
the area is expected to remain dry this afternoon as the upper level
low lifts into the High Plains through tonight. Simultaneously, a
surface low over the TX/OK panhandle will continue to lift
northward. Not only will this surface low bring breezy southwesterly
winds through the afternoon, but it will aid in a Pacific front
translating eastward across the region by late afternoon. We focus
on the positioning of this boundary because this looks to be the
main focus point for convective initialization for this afternoon, as
most forcing for ascent and isentropic ascent has exited the region
all together. Hi-resolution models like the HRRR seem a bit bullish
with the westward extent of precipitation while other hi-res
guidance seems a bit more realistic initializing storms across
portions of the low-lying Rolling Plains. However, the main change
from yesterday is that this does not look to be a flood threat any
more, considering faster storm motions and the slight decrease in
PWATs across the region. Regardless, localized flooding will still
be possible, especially with stronger storm cores considering PWATs
are still anomalously high. Storms that are able to develop this
afternoon across our area will have the potential of producing
quarter sized hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph, considering MUCAPE
values up to 2000 J/kg, bulk shear magnitudes of 45kts, and decent
MLLR. Although not as likely, we cannot rule out the potential for
an isolated tornado or two. This threat looks highest across
Stonewall County, where we expect the boundary to be present which
is likely where low-level shear will be maximized. Storms will
quickly exit the region by late tonight for most areas off the
Caprock, though a few training storms may linger across the low-
lying Rolling Plains.

Turning to Thursday, the upper level low over the High Plains will
become absorbed into the main flow as an upper high builds back over
the SWCONUS. As the surface low shifts eastward and large scale
troughing passes through the Great Lakes region, a cold front will
swing through the FA. Compared to yesterday, guidance is quicker
with the progression of this front, arriving across our northwestern
counties by mid-morning Thursday. As a result, afternoon highs will
vary with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s across the
northwest, with warmer highs in the 70s and 80s across southeastern
counties. Drier northerly flow looks to be present tomorrow, which
will likely limit widespread precipitation, though perturbations
tracking into the region may be enough to warrant an isolated storm
or two moving in from the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico
Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The extended forecast continues to trend drier and cooler as the
upper trough continues to lift northward, while a small disturbance
becomes near stationary over the Big Country region. Meanwhile to
our west, we will see the upper level high center across the
SWCONUS, which will help promote northerly flow aloft across the
region. On top of this, the cooler air mass in place from Thursday`s
FROPA will remain in place through the weekend with highs steady in
the 60s and 70s area-wide.A slight uptick in temperatures is
expected by early next week, as geopotential heights rise in
response to a weak ridge building across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Additional rain shower and thunderstorm development will be possible
near the KCDS terminal later this afternoon through the early
evening hours with all activity likely east of the KLBB and KPVW
terminals. A cold front will move into the region Thursday morning
shifting winds to the northwest. Low CIGS could move in behind this
front but the forecast is highly uncertain on this occurrence.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01