833
FXUS64 KLUB 021119
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
619 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

 - Much cooler Friday with cloudy skies and scattered showers.

 - Gradually warming, but generally cooler and drier conditions
   this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

In the immediate term, strong winds over the extreme southwestern
Texas Panhandle and western South Plains along the Texas/New Mexico
state line will continue to decrease over the next several hours.
Surface pressure rises behind a cold front will continue to ease
during this time. Much cooler temperatures will also be ushered in
behind this front through the early morning hours on Friday.
Additionally, low stratus will maintain its southern advection into
the South Plains. Northerly winds and overcast skies through the day
will ultimately lead to temperatures well below seasonal averages on
the order of 15 to 20 degrees below average. Some areas on the
caprock may struggle to break 60 degrees on Friday afternoon. The
other forecast issue for the day will be chances of precipitation.
The upper level low that brought us rainfall this week will attempt
to shear out on Friday resulting in a shear axis overhead and try to
close off a low over Far West Texas. Weak large scale ascent will
persist overhead through the day. Furthermore, moist isentropic
ascent between 800 and 700mb will foster light rain shower
development. Cooler temperatures and increasing low level dew points
will bring a nearly saturated atmosphere from the surface up to
around 650mb as well. No thunder is expected on Friday with the lack
of any instability throughout the atmospheric column. Forecast
rainfall amounts will be very light with only several hundreths of
an inch expected from this activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The upper level shear axis will dip farther to the south on Saturday
pushing precipitation chances farther south. Weak large scale ascent
will continue to be present mostly over the Rolling Plains. In
addition, weak instability may develop early in the morning on
Saturday bringing at least a slight chance of thunder to the Rolling
Plains. Cooler air will receive a reinforcing shot of cooler air on
Sunday with a return to surface lee troughing on Monday. A period of
dry weather and increasing temperatures is expected beginning in the
second half of the weekend through at least the middle of next week.
Upper level ridging will build over the four corners this weekend
into early next week but will become suppressed by the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Widespread MVFR and IFR stratus with on/off -DZ will prevail
today through tonight. Visbys could fall to a few miles at times
in steadier DZ.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93