925
FXUS64 KLUB 012315
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
515 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 512 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms late
  tonight into early Monday morning, with the best chance for
  storms being across the Texas Panhandle and northern South
  Plains. Damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard.

- Breezy westerly winds are expected on Monday, with gusts up to
  45 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A deep trough was present near the CA/NV border as of 11am Sun.
This system will induce sfc pressure falls in the lee of the
Rockies, with MSLP values expected to fall from near 1012mb as of
this writing to the mid-990s by 12z/6am Mon. These pressure falls
will keep SSE flow in place locally, with continued low-level
moisture advection. Sfc dewpoints have climbed into the low 60s
this morning, an increase of 3-5 degF between 8-11am on Sun, and
are expected to reach the mid-60s ahead of an approaching front
tonight.

The approaching trough will lead to dynamic wind fields
overspreading the region tonight, resulting in ample wind shear
both deep layer (0-6 km bulk shear values of 45-60 kts) and low-
level (0- 3 km shear of 40-45 kts). CAMs have come into good
agreement in showing a line of storms advancing from eastern NM
into the TX Panhandle and northern South Plains around 06z
(midnight) and continuing east thereafter. What is less certain is
whether or not any scattered storms can develop ahead of that
line, which is suggested by some models. The continued presence of
a low-level inversion in the forecast soundings suggests that any
leading storms that do develop would be elevated (not surface
based) and primarily pose a hail/wind threat. The main uncertainty
for tonight is the degree of destabilization, especially with
that LL inversion persisting. Models do seem to hint at a narrow
corridor that becomes uncapped to surface-based convection near
the main convective line, and the expected positive moisture
advection lends some validity to this scenario. Given the dynamic
low-level wind fields, this suggests potential for nocturnal
tornadoes. Strong wind gusts remain the primary severe hazard with
this line.

Regarding fog potential tonight ahead of the front, the
persistence of the low-level inversion and positive moisture
advection certainly raises concerns about fog development.
However, forecast soundings show a much less favorable hydrolapse
rate signature compared to Sunday morning, so it may wind up being
continued low stratus present rather than fog.

As has been noted in previous forecasts, deeper mixing behind the
front on Mon will support breezy westerly winds. There have not
been any major changes to the forecast guidance in this
department, with ensembles still supporting peak gusts between
35-45 mph. While there remains a conditional severe storm threat
across the eastern Rolling Plains on Mon, the most likely scenario
continues to be that storms form just east of our area as that
front quickly shift to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The mid-week pattern upper ridging over the Rockies and closed
upper lows on either side of this ridge. Following a secondary
cold frontal passage Mon night, winds on Tues will shift to
northerly, still breezy but not as strong as Monday. A drier
airmass will be present behind these fronts, with PWATs around
0.50" and sfc dewpoints in the 40s, which in conjunction with
subtle height rises aloft should keep the FA dry Tues-Wed. The
western-most of these upper lows will swing towards OK on Wed
night, but limited moisture return keeps the precip potential low
(less than 10% in our FA). Another weak cold front associated with
this system should provide a renewed push of drier air from the
north, and guidance generally favors upper ridging in the latter
portions of the forecast period. Thus, mostly dry conditions are
expected to continue late week into the weekend. Temps should be
pleasant through the long term forecast period, if not a tad
chilly, with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s
to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

CIGs have improved slightly to MVFR at the terminals, but this
should be short lived. IFR CIGs will make their way back over the
terminals by 02Z. Some improvement is expected with CIGs by 06Z,
especially if convection does move over or near a terminal. If
convection affects a terminal, wind gusts up to 60 knots will be
possible. VFR CIGs are expected to return to the terminals by 18Z
Monday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...51