Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
805 FXUS64 KLUB 020532 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1132 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 - Mostly sunny and warmer today. - Cooler with chances of precipitation Thursday, otherwise quiet and warmer conditions through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Northerly winds will become essentially calm overnight and combined with the clear skies will bring the coldest night of the season so far across much of the area. Lows in the single digits are possible in and around Muleshoe, with widespread teens elsewhere. An upper shortwave moving through the Rockies will lead to weak lee surface cyclogenesis today. Breezy SW winds sustained near 20 mph on the Caprock will develop between the relatively low pressure to our northwest and high pressure to the east. Along with sunny skies, high temperatures will return to near to slightly above normal today, topping out generally in the low 60s. Winds will slightly diminish into the evening but remain elevated around 10-15 mph and thus Wednesday morning lows will be much warmer relatively speaking (near 15 degrees) than this morning. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 A shortwave will approach the area Wednesday morning bringing another surface cold front with it. Winds will become northerly behind it as it tracks from north to south. The high temperature forecast will be tricky as highs will be whatever the current temperature is immediately before the front moves through and then fall the remainder of the day. In any case, the far southern Panhandle will struggle to get out of the mid 40s, where the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains may make it to 60 if the front slows down. Models are coming into better agreement regarding the much- advertised system for Thursday. At this point, the upper trough looks to be quite shallow and positively tilted. Any chances of precipitation look to be during the late Wednesday/early Thursday morning hours and mostly confined to the far SW Panhandle and northern South Plains nearest to the base of the trough. Given the time of day, this would all fall as snow, however any accumulations would be very minimal. Much of the best moisture advection the remainder of the day would be well east of our area given the trough orientation and as of now and PoPs have been completely removed outside of the aforementioned as they were for the previous forecast. Despite a progressive upper pattern, Friday into the weekend looks to be warmer and dry with a generally SW surface flow. Saturday will be the warmest day with due westerly downsloping winds. Highs could potentially reach near 70 over portions of the area. Winds will switch north on Sunday as another cold front moves through, however it will not be as strong as the previous two and temperatures are only expected to drop by around 5-8 degrees. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 VFR is expected through the TAF period. However, an approaching storm system will bring strong south to southwesterly winds at all TAF sites from late Tuesday morning through the afternoon hours. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...01