448
FXUS64 KLUB 121101
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
601 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Hot temperatures persist over the next week. Wednesday is
  expected to be one of the hottest days, with much of the area
  above 100 degrees and areas off the Caprock near 105.

- An isolated storm or two is possible on the Caprock Wednesday
  evening. Additional storm chances exist Thursday-Friday. Any
  storms that do form will be capable of strong wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

An upper high remains centered over the southeastern US. Sfc
troughing over the central Great Plains currently will deepen into
a closed low over SE CO by Wed PM, resulting in moderately breezy
southerly winds across the FA (peak gusts 25-30 mph).

Hot temps continue, and Wed remains on track to be the hottest day
of the week, with forecast highs in the triple digits area-wide.
Highs overperformed slightly today, with some areas reaching 104-
105F off the Caprock. Both the probabilistic NBM and the high-res
HREF depict a 40-70% chance of reaching 105F in some areas off the
Caprock tomorrow. Was on the fence about a Heat Advisory, but
ultimately seeing guidance was too cool today tipped the scales
towards issuing the advisory for Wednesday. Still, the conditions
tomorrow won`t register as anything unusual compared to the recent
weeks. Over the last three weeks, Childress has experienced highs
above 100F on 18 out of 21 days. The continued hot and dry
weather has resulted in dry fuels, particularly across the far SE
TX panhandle and northern Rolling Plains (ERC values near/above
the 90th percentile). Thus, the modest winds may lead to locally
elevated fire conditions in those areas Wed PM.

CAMs continue to highlight a low chance for a storm or two during
the evening as a weak impulse is positioned on the western side of
the upper ridge. Forcing is weak, but this low chance (10-15%)
will generally be focused west of Lubbock, closer to the mid/upper
level forcing. Forecast soundings/hodographs show modest CAPE
(1000-2000 J/kg), weak deep layer shear (less than 20 kts),
slightly above normal precipitable water values (around 1.25", or
75th percentile), and a deep inverted-V below the cloud base. Such
conditions suggest any storm that does form could produce strong
outflow winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The synoptic pattern is not expected to change much through
Friday, with the upper ridge remaining centered over the
southeast US. Occasional disturbances lift from the Four Corners
region around the periphery of the ridge, tracking NW of the FA.
These provide at least some storm chances Thurs and Fri, primarily
on the Caprock, where upper heights will be slightly lower and
the upper disturbance slightly closer (compared to areas off the
Caprock). While storms may be present each evening, the chance of
experiencing rain at any specific location is less than 30%.
Forecast soundings show similar conditions to that described above
for Wed evening, thus while organized severe storms are unlikely,
gusty outflows remain possible with any convection.

Over the course of the weekend, the center of the upper ridge
gradually shifts west, leading to height rises (subsidence)
locally and shifting any potential disturbances further north/west
away from the FA. Thus, continued above normal temps and mostly
dry conditions will persist through at least early next week.
500mb heights are progged to reach the mid/upper 590s. While the
NBM keeps highs below 105F each day, it would not be a surprise if
additional heat advisories are needed at times off the Caprock.
Medium-to-longer range ensemble guidance suggests this general
pattern will persist into late August, and the CPC outlooks
indicate a 60-70% chance for above normal temps during the second
half of the month, with the chances for above normal precip
focused off to the north and west of the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR with steady southerly winds of 10-15 knots, gusting over 20
knots this afternoon. Remote chance for a few TS late this
afternoon and evening, mainly west of LBB and PVW.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...93