520
FXUS64 KLUB 150503
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1203 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

 - Isolated thunderstorms possible near the TX/NM border Saturday
   evening and over the far southwest Panhandle Sunday evening.

 - Hot and dry through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Southerly winds will persist overnight keeping lows mild, similar to
what they have been previous nights. A broad upper ridge over the
Southeast will expand farther westward Saturday. Much of the
monsoonal moisture will subsequently also be pushed farther west,
however CAMs continue to indicate convection crossing the TX/NM
border into the western South Plains and far southwest Panhandle.
These should be fairly isolated and short lived, although sounding
profiles look very similar as the past 2 evenings. As such, locally
strong wind gusts of 60-70 mph and brief downpours are possible. Any
storms should taper off by late evening and another quiet and mild
overnight is expected into Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The aforementioned ridge will continue to broaden over the region
Sunday. Isolated storms may still clip the far southwest Panhandle,
otherwise hot and dry conditions will prevail. The general pattern
remains the same through around the mid-week time frame.
Temperatures will increase 1-2 degrees each day starting Sunday,
possibly returning to Heat Advisory levels off the Caprock. The
latest GFS indicates a front and associated rain/thunderstorms
tracking through the entire area Wednesday evening into Thursday.
However other synoptic models and ensembles are not quite as bullish
with this solution yet and confidence remains low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions continue, with moderate southerly winds around 15
kts with higher gusts.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24