509
FXUS64 KLUB 111108
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
608 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Continued hot and dry through Wednesday.

- Storm chances increase Thursday and Friday with slightly cooler
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The weakness in the expansive high that has been positioned across
the southern half of the country is beginning to lose its definition
as the western lobe of the high starts to break down.  This is being
driven by an approaching trough approaching the west coast.  While
the loss of grip will still keep things dry for us, things look to
change in the extended as outlined below.  Still, for Tuesday, we
can expect another hot day with temperatures similar to the past
several days...that is remaining about 10 degrees above seasonal
norms.  The tropical wave that has been moving ashore the middle
Texas coast toward DFW will not make much of a difference for us.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

As the aforementioned trough out west, associated with a nearly
closed low across SRN BC/NRN WA, edges eastward, flow becomes
increasingly southwesterly.  This transition, occurring during the
early morning hours of Thursday, will bring a more favorable pattern
for precipitation.  A tropical wave, which had been suggested the
past few evenings, looks to no longer be at play for mid-week though
there could be increasing Gulf moisture in the mid levels by another
potential wave this coming weekend. Still, it`s models trying to
manage a weak feature and this is something they do not typically
handle well. The best opportunity for storms appears to be
Thursday evening and again on Friday though perhaps favoring the
far northwestern zones on the latter. Present indications suggest
we`ll be back to dry for the weekend as the trough ejects into
the northern plains thus allowing the ridge to become firmly
entrenched across the southern CONUS once again. Temperatures on
Thu/Fri look maybe 3-4 degrees cooler areawide with the extra
clouds and lower geopotential heights. Have no fear, things should
rebound to what we`ve experienced the past few days by next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR with gusty southerly winds to around 20 knots by midday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...93