378
FXUS64 KLUB 152232
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
532 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 532 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible near the TX/NM
   border Saturday evening and over the far southwest Texas
   Panhandle Sunday evening.

 - Hot and dry through at least the middle of next week.

 - High temperatures nearing Heat Advisory criteria of 105-110
   degrees across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and northern
   Rolling Plains Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Forecast remains on track for this evening. The latest analysis
shows that the monsoon moisture plume has shifted west as the
broad upper ridge over the southeastern U.S. starts to bulge
westward. This should keep most of the diurnal convection confined
to central and eastern NM, bending northeastward into the western
TX Panhandle following along the western periphery of the upper
ridge, although with time a few showers or t-storms may drift
across the state line this evening before dissipating by midnight.
Sunday looks even quieter, with shower and t-storm activity
likely to be focused from northern NM east across the nrn TX and
OK Panhandles along a weak front. There`s a very slim chance that
some of this activity could sneak into the far southwest or
southern TX Panhandle late Sunday. High temperatures should tick
up a degree or two Sunday as the upper high translates west across
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Monday though Wednesday still appear to the be the hottest days in
the extended period, with little in the way of rain chances, even
across the northwest counties. The broad upper high stretching
from the 4-corners region to the Gulf Coast will keep the monsoon
moisture and storm track well to our north and west. High
temperatures will continue to creep upwards and may reach Heat
Advisory criteria (105-110 degrees) from the Caprock Canyons area
east through the Prairie Dog Town Fork of the Red River Valley
into portions of the Rolling Plains Tuesday and Wednesday.

The medium range guidance tends to split into two camps starting
around midweek. One camp (mainly GFS-based) shows the upper high
center shifting father northwest to the 4-corners region, allowing
for some northwesterly flow to develop across the Southern High
Plains and possibly drag a cold front into the area late Wed or
Thu. This would result in at least a modest cool down and a better
chance for some precipitation for the second half of the week.
However, the other camp (mainly ECMWF-based) keeps the upper ridge
centered closer to home and would tend to prevent the front from
entering our area, maintaining the hot and dry conditions. The
mean (which our current forecast reflects) favors maintaining the
broad ridge over NM and TX with the front staying off to our
north. However, this pattern may still allow temperatures to back
off just slightly beyond Wednesday, and convection along the
front may yet drive it farther south than the current consensus.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR and light southerly winds will continue through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...19