125
FXUS64 KLUB 161100
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
600 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 559 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

 - Triple-digit temperatures expected today and Tuesday, with
   highs returning to the middle 90s through the rest of the week.

 - There is a low chance of thunderstorms in the Rolling Plains late
   Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Any lingering isolated thunderstorms overnight will taper off by
sunrise, with lows ranging from the low 60s over the far SW
Panhandle to the low 70s off the Caprock. A strong upper ridge
combined with breezy southerly flow will allow for very warm
temperatures this afternoon, with widespread highs reaching the
upper 90s to low triple-digits. That said, the records at Lubbock
and Childress of 108 and 109 respectively, both from 2011, appear to
be safe. Breezy winds will persist into the overnight hours keeping
temperatures mild despite the mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Subtropical ridging over the Desert Southwest will continue to
deamplify as a shortwave trough emerges over the central Rocky
Mountains by Tuesday morning. This shortwave trough will eject into
the central Great Plains, spawning lee cyclogenesis in the vicinity
of the OK/TX PH region, with the surface low forecast to deepen to
near 996 mb beneath a belt of 30-40 kt mid/high-level flow. Winds
were raised from the NBM due to the expectation for a moderate
isallobaric response generated by the strengthening low. The dryline
will also propagate eastward towards the I-27 corridor Tuesday while
also sharpening, with winds remaining slightly veered across the
moist sector along and ahead of it. Despite the slightly negative
geopotential height tendencies, the combination of hot 850 mb
temperatures and breezy, southwesterly winds, will cause highs to
breach 100 degrees area-wide. A shield of mid-level cirrus may be
present, but it should not be thick enough to mute the full effects
of diabatic heating. Although temperatures will near or reach
advisory-level Tuesday afternoon, highs will be well below record
territory at CDS and LBB. (Heat Advisory criteria is 105-109 degrees
area-wide.) The record highs at CDS and LBB for Tuesday are 111
degrees set in 2011 and 112 degrees set in 2017, respectively.

Isolated, high-based thunderstorms will be possible across portions
of the Rolling Plains late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening
hours. Coverage should be limited by parcels succumbing to the
effects of dry air entrainment, with boundary-layer T/Td spreads at
around 35 degrees, in addition to the presence of subsidence in the
mid-levels. However, the orientation and magnitude of the winds
relative to the dryline will maximize confluence, and as the surface
low rotates southward across the TX PH, a dryline bulge may develop,
serving as the focus for low-level convergence and allowing parcels
to reach the LFC. Strong, mixed-layer theta-e advection associated
with the geopotential height falls through most of the mid-levels
will result in a sizable EML, characterized by mixed-layer CAPE
values in excess of 3,000 J/kg. Shear throughout the cloud-bearing
layer will be weak, at or around 20 kt, with deep-layer shear
magnitudes at around 30 kt. The cross-boundary component to the
shear vectors point towards the potential for storms to become
organized, though mesocyclones will be modest, but torrential
rainfall and large hail around ping pong size will be possible
should a storm develop and become organized. Anemic, mid-level
venting of updrafts will also enhance water-loading, leading to the
potential for a severe-caliber downburst, in addition to localized
flash flooding. The potential for storms is low, however.

A cold front will move through the CWA Wednesday morning, with winds
quickly veering northeastward in its wake. High temperatures will be
much cooler than Tuesday, but still hot, with highs peaking in the
lower-middle 90s area-wide. The front may stall in the northern
Permian Basin, resulting in a well-defined wind shift across some of
the southern zones, and where exactly the front stalls will govern
the potential for another round of thunderstorm potential Wednesday
afternoon. PoPs initialized by the NBM have been maintained with
this forecast cycle, and are confined to the southeastern Rolling
Plains, which is where the highest confidence is in where the front
stalls. Capping will become quite strong Wednesday due to the
passage of the front, and it is possible that no storms form at all
Wednesday, especially if the front sloshes south of the CWA. Dry and
hot conditions remain intact through the rest of the week, as the
subtropical ridge is forecast to amplify over the Rocky Mountains
and gradually shift east into the Great Plains by next weekend.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...51