558
FXUS64 KLUB 120521
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1221 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

 - Hot this weekend with possible record highs Saturday and
   isolated storms near the Texas/New Mexico state line.

 - Daily thunderstorm chances next week favoring areas on the
   Caprock.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

An upper level ridge will remain firmly in control of our weather
this weekend into early next week with small chances of
precipitation. The center of an upper level ridge will move overhead
this weekend further warming temperatures. Thickness values will
undergo a 20m or so increase on Saturday bringing near record or
record temperatures. Furthermore, temperatures will likely exceed
heat advisory criteria for most areas off the caprock on Saturday
afternoon warranting an advisory. And although temperatures will be
near record highs on the caprock, advisory criteria is not expected
to be met. The presence of a surface pressure trough will bring only
slight chances of convection on Saturday afternoon. This trough will
be positioned from the central Texas Panhandle southwest ward into
southeastern New Mexico. Significant low level convergence within
this trough along with a deeply mixed boundary layer will likely
garner a cumulus field. Progged instability will be fairly minimal
on the caprock especially in close proximity to the surface trough.
Cloud bases will be extremely high with the expected very hot
temperatures promoting a strong wind threat if any storms were to
develop. A strong low level jet will develop Saturday night into
early Sunday morning on the order of 40kt. This may bring overnight
showers to the region early Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The upper level ridge will move farther east next week leading to a
downward trend in thicknesses and therefore temperatures. However,
temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal averages through
all of next week. Precipitation chances for next week are looking
less likely with a monsoonal plume of moisture remaining to the west
and north of the FA. The highest chances will be near the Texas/New
Mexico state line closest to the plume of mid-level moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...12