577
FXUS64 KLUB 171708
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1208 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

 - Temperatures will trend hotter through mid-week.

 - Slight chance of evening storms across the southwestern Texas
   Panhandle Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

An upper level ridge will more firmly assert its grip on the region
today by shutting down convective chances. The center of the upper
ridge will edge closer to being directly overhead this afternoon
acting to suppress attempted convection. A number of residual
outflow boundaries were still present across the region from
overnight Texas Panhandle convection. However, the most notable was
still located north of the FA over the central Texas Panhandle.
Additional convection will be possible along this boundary this
afternoon farther from the influence of the upper ridging. This
upper level ridge will shift overhead during the overnight hours and
then continue moving west during the day on Tuesday. This will bring
the hotter temperatures to the area both on Tuesday and Wednesday.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The upper ridge will continue drifting west and settle near the four
corners around mid-week. As a result, northwest flow aloft will
strengthen increasing chances of precipitation. At the same time, a
short wave trough will drop down through the Central Plains
attempting to send a cold front to the area around Thursday. A
ribbon of mid level moisture will be present over the southwestern
US through the Central Plains which will promote the development of
convection on the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico. With the
stronger northwest flow aloft, there is a slight chance this
convection will make it into the southwestern Texas Panhandle during
the evening hours from Wednesday through Friday. Models are in fair
agreement in moving the center of the ridge back eastward over New
Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR will continue through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ024>026-031-
032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01