630
FXUS64 KLUB 131729
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible this evening, then
   again Friday, capable of strong downburst winds.

 - Hot and dry conditions continue through the weekend into early
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are beginning to decrease in
coverage as of 11 AM CDT this morning as water vapor imagery shows
the weak disturbance that tracked through the area departs the east
allowing drier air to filter in. Thereafter, hot and temporarily dry
conditions are expected to develop as breezy southerly winds prevail
under a mostly clear sky as the upper ridge remains parked across
the South Plains and Gulf States. Warm southerly flow through the
low to mid-levels will promote increased thickness values with 850
mb temperatures around 30C suggesting some areas off the Caprock
will see temperatures at or just above 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory
remains in effect from 1 PM CDT until 8 PM CDT. Similar to
yesterday, a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will exist as the upper ridge begins to depart to the east while
disturbances track through the main flow. Precipitation chances will
favor areas across the Caprock, where the bulk of monsoonal moisture
is expected to reside, decreasing in coverage with eastern extent
due to a lack of bulk shear. Although there is low confidence in
coverage and timing, we expect storms to be more scattered compared
to what we saw Wednesday evening. A marginal risk for severe weather
will exist with any storm that is able to develop, with forecast
soundings depict an evident dry-sub cloud layer within a well mixed
boundary layer. Suggesting the threat for strong downburst winds up
to 70 mph will be possible with high based thunderstorms. As a
result, dry lightning could be of concern given drier fuel states
across the region, which could result in wildfire starts. Activity
will decrease in coverage around midnight with a quiet night
expected with overnight lows in the 60s and 70s.

Friday looks to be a wash and repeat forecast, although not nearly
as warm, thanks to H7 to H8 flow backing more out of the south and
not nearly as strong, aiding in not as prominent WAA into the
region. Nonetheless, a HOT day is still on tap with afternoon highs
in the upper 90s to lower triple digits. At this time, a heat
advisory is not expected for Friday, although this threat may need
to be re-evaluated in the next forecast package. H5 southwesterly
flow will continue as the  center of the upper level ridge shifts
slightly west. This southerly flow will continuing to aid in
monsoonal moisture being advected into the region, which combined
with disturbances within the flow aloft tracking through will
promote the chance for another round of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms which could cause a few strong downburst winds up to
70 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Although slightly cooler, hot conditions are expected to continue
through the weekend, becoming even hotter by early next week. The
upper level ridge will continue to expand westward, amplifying over
the Plains regions into portions of the Intermountain west by early
next week. As a result, geopotential heights will remain stationary
just around or slightly above seasonal averages as we see afternoon
highs in the upper 90s to lower triple digits. Becoming near heat
advisory level conditions by early to mid next week as the center of
the upper high sets up in the vicinity of the Caprock regions. As
the ridge expands westward, subsidence provided from the upper high
will likely limit overall precipitation chances while monsoonal
moisture remains confined to our west in portions of New Mexico.
Although unlikely, we cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
tracking into portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle both
Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evenings. However, lack of
moisture and large scale ascent will likely hinder this from
happening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Isolated storms are possible this afternoon with the greatest
chances of occurrence at the KLBB and KPVW terminals. With expected
isolated coverage, impacts will likely be short lived which will
include strong and variable wind gusts and possibly visby
restrictions due to blowing dust. Otherwise, VFR can be expected
with breezy southerly winds.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-
037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01