417
FXUS61 KLWX 200140
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
840 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Wedging high pressure will keep things dry and cloudy through
Thursday night. Low pressure approaching from the Ohio and mid-
Mississippi River Valleys will bring another round of rain to the
region Friday into Friday night. A cold front will swing through the
area early Saturday with high pressure building over the central
Appalachians Sunday into Monday. Another wave of low pressure and
front look to cross the area Tuesday into the middle part of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Much of the same overnight with continued cloud cover. Areas not
under the clouds are likely to experience patchy fog. This is
due largely in part to remnant low-level moisture and
light/calm winds as the wedge of high pressure settles overhead.
Fog should be patchy in nature although could become a bit more
widespread south of of I-66/US-50 if clouds can thin out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cloud cover remains prevalent Thursday as high pressure stays wedged
in against the eastern face of the Appalachians. This will lead to
another cool and gray day ahead with highs ranging from the upper
40s along the PA/MD line to mid and upper 50s over the central VA
Piedmont/Shenandoah Valley. Dry conditions are expected throughout
the day and into the night with cloud cover thickening as low
pressure advances from the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys. With the
added cloud cover expect lows Thursday night to fall back into the
upper 30s and low to mid 40s.

Rain chances return after a brief reprieve during the midweek
period. Synoptically, we remain in a split flow jet pattern with the
northern stream remaining much more amplified compared to the
southern stream. This will in turn drive our local weather pattern
through the upcoming weekend ahead. The next trough of low pressure
looks to work across the Hudson Bay/northern Great Lakes into
eastern Canada/New England Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, southern
stream low pressure will work across the mid-Mississippi and the
lower Ohio River Valleys into the VA/NC Piedmont during the same
aforementioned timeframe. Both of these systems will deliver another
round of widespread light to perhaps moderate rain to the region
early Friday morning into late Friday night. Rainfall amounts
overall appear to be light with another tenth of an inch to quarter
of an inch expected. Locally heavier amounts are possible along the
terrain.

Rain chances continue overnight Friday into Saturday morning as a
cold front advances toward the area. With the rain and added cloud
cover expect lows Friday night to fall into mid to upper 40s and low
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A split jet pattern persists into the weekend and much of next week
as well. Within the amplified northern stream, the initial longwave
trough will be pushing toward Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on
Saturday. In the wake, an additional trough begins to dig across
much of eastern Canada down into New England on Monday. Looking to
the southern stream, a strong upper low is expected to eject out of
northwestern Mexico toward the Four Corners region this weekend. As
this system accelerates across the middle of the country, it does
begin to pick up speed as it evolves into a broad open wave. The
associated height falls are likely to reach the Mid-Atlantic region
by Tuesday. Looking out to the middle of next week, a broad longwave
trough sweeps across the central U.S. This system would eventually
track toward the Eastern Seaboard in time for the Thanksgiving
holiday period.

The surface pattern will carry an exiting cold front during the
first half of Saturday. Some residual morning rain showers are
looking likely before drier air works its way in from the north and
west. High pressure returns for the second half of the weekend into
portions of Monday. This will allow for a period of tranquil weather
before rain chances return by Tuesday. The mentioned southern stream
feature should have access to a greater deal of moisture.
Consequently, rain chances have risen to around 40 to 60 percent for
Tuesday. This could linger into part of Wednesday before an
additional system approaches well to the west. Overall temperatures
stay fairly seasonable throughout the extended period. Daily highs
will largely range from the 50s to low/mid 60s (mainly 40s across
the mountains). The coolest nights are likely to be on Saturday and
Sunday with high pressure nearby. Widespread 30s are expected for
each of those nights.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main impact to aviation for the rest of night looks to be
low ceilings. This is due in part to departing high pressure off
the NJ/Delmarva coast and wedging high pressure east of the
Appalachians. Expect MVFR conditions to continue through the
00z/6pm TAF period at the big 3 airports as well as at MRB and
MTN. Winds will remain light out of the north and northeast
through this evening before turning calm overnight. Some patchy
fog is possible overnight into Thursday morning with vsbys
ranging between 4-6SM amongst the terminals. CHO has the
greatest potential to drop below 2SM tonight.

Sub-VFR conditions look to return overnight into Thursday morning as
cigs lower once again. Winds will shift around to the southeast
Thursday late morning into the afternoon which may help lift
ceilings back to VFR and high end MVFR. Periods of lower ceilings
are possible ahead of a warm front Thursday night through Friday
with light showers developing ahead of an approaching low pressure
system.

Steady light south to southeast winds should keep ceilings mostly in
the MVFR range, though brief periods of IFR or lower are possible at
times, especially north and west of the corridor terminals Thursday
night.Showers will lead to additional restrictions Friday into
early Saturday morning.Some residual restrictions are likely
on Saturday morning as frontal showers exit off toward the south
and east. VFR conditions should return by the afternoon as
drier air moves in from the north. High pressure builds in for
the second half of the weekend allowing for continued fair
weather. Winds become southerly by Sunday before shifting to
westerly on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories will remain over the open waters of the
lower tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay through this evening with
winds lightening overnight as wedging high pressure
strengthens.

Winds will dip below sub-SCA levels Thursday with wedging high
pressure over the area. Winds will remain light Thursday morning
before switching to the southeast Thursday afternoon and evening as
the wedge of high pressure buckles. Winds may increase to near SCA
levels ahead of the low (depending on track/strength) late Friday,
and in northerly channeling that may begin late Friday night.

The main period of any hazardous marine conditions would be on
Saturday morning through the afternoon given northerly channeling
effects. Gusts up to 20 knots are looking likely which would warrant
Small Craft Advisories across portions of the waters. Overall wind
fields drop through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week. Winds on Sunday afternoon/evening shift to southerly before
turning westerly by Monday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ532>534-536-537-540>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...CPB/EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/EST
MARINE...BRO/EST