847
FXUS61 KLWX 120852
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
352 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build well to the south today before a
clipper system tracks across the region this evening. High
pressure returns for the end of the week and into much of the
weekend. A warm front moves through on Saturday before a cold
front tracks across the area by Sunday. This brings the next
chance of rainfall. A secondary cold front sweeps through on
Monday leading to cooler temperatures next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A return flow regime has ensued with most locations reporting
south to southwesterly winds. The steady 5 to 10 knot warm
advection winds coupled with passing mid-level clouds have
yielded milder temperatures than recent days. As of 08Z/3 AM,
most spots are showing observations in the mid 30s to low 40s,
with near freezing temperatures along the Allegheny Front. This
is accompanied by a continued dry air mass with dew points
holding steady in the teens. The large dewpoint depressions is
keeping relative humidity levels much lower (35 to 55 percent)
than most nights.

A progressive mid-latitude pattern has carried the earlier
upper trough into the Canadian Maritimes. Trailing cyclonic flow
will carry a fast moving clipper-type system into the area
later this afternoon and evening. In advance of these height
falls, wind fields will intensify across the Mid-Atlantic
region. Looking at the latest WSR-88D VAD wind profiler, a plume
of 30 to 40 knot winds are evident in the 4,000 to 6,000 foot
layer, with even higher winds just above that. Given such
enhancements are occurring at the higher elevations, Wind
Advisories are in place for much of the Alleghenies until 1 PM
this afternoon.

With the initial upper trough pushing offshore, heights quickly
rise in the wake with 24-hour departures on the order of 20 to
25 dm (528 dm to 552 dm). This response is also noted by large
rises in tropospheric temperatures. Forecast 850-mb temperatures
push to near 0C which will favor a return to near average highs.
Forecast soundings show a deep mixed boundary layer extending to
around 850 to 800 mb. Dry adiabatic compressional heating should
raise afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s. This
comes with a breezy southwesterly wind with gusts around 25 to
35 mph. Those closer to the Mason-Dixon Line will likely see
readings in the low/mid 50s given some added cloud cover. In the
mountains, it will be colder with highs in the upper 30s to 40s.

The clipper-type system exits offshore late this evening with
additional upticks in winds expected in the wake. 850-mb winds
behind this trough accelerate to around 50 knots. Forecast
soundings depict some thermal inversion forming below these
elevated wind fields. Thus, it will be close in terms of needing
additional Wind Advisories for the Alleghenies this evening into
the first half of the night. The forecast calls for low
temperatures in the mid/upper 30s, with upper 20s to low 30s
across the I-81 corridor back to the Allegheny Front. The usual
areas of the central Virginia Piedmont also likely radiate quite
well with lows near freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As that clipper system moves off the Atlantic coast, the
guidance show an additional shortwave grazing the area to the
north on Thursday. The net effect of this amplification is to
increase gradients and favor a breezy post-frontal northwesterly
wind. The shift over to northwesterly winds will help drop
temperatures a bit despite the minimal change in heights and
layer thicknesses. Forecast highs are in the 50s with perhaps a
random 60 degree reading or two near the I-64 corridor.
Northwesterly gusts up to 20 to 30 mph is expected, with up to
40 mph gusts along the Alleghenies. Skies should be more
sunshine filled aided by the subsidence aloft.

By nightfall, winds drop off as gradients weaken. High pressure
approaching from the upper Tennessee Valley gradually settles
over the central Appalachians by Friday morning. This will usher
in a cooler night with low temperatures in the upper 20s to mid
30s. Given it will be a radiational cooling night, areas that
typically decouple more quickly could see lows in the mid 20s.

To conclude the work week, the mean upper trough moves off the
New England coast while an upstream ridge approaches from the
Great Plains. Being on the eastern extent of this ridge, the
mean tropospheric flow will remain out of the northwest on
Friday. Despite all the stronger winds aloft, surface gradients
are to be weaker given the nearby anticyclone. Near average
temperatures are expected with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s
(40s to mid 50s across the mountains). West-northwesterly winds
of 10 to 15 mph are accompanied by mostly sunny skies. A milder
night lies ahead with lows in the 30s to near 40 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure traverses the region quickly on Saturday, then a
deepening area of low pressure tracks across the OH Valley to the
eastern Great Lakes Sunday. This could possibly bring a quick round
of showers Sunday afternoon, then dry again behind a cold front that
tracks through Sunday night.

Seasonal temperatures Saturday as highs reach the upper 50s to low
60s. Becoming very warm and breezy on Sunday as the low pressure
approaches and south/southwest winds increase. Temperatures drop
back to near seasonal values Sunday night into Monday with overnight
lows in the 30s to 40s, and daytime highs in the 50s to around
60F.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are anticipated throughout the remainder of the
work week. The main story ahead will be the continued gusty
periods of winds as a series of disturbances track across the
eastern U.S. Winds should be mainly southwesterly today with
afternoon gusts to near 25 to 30 knots. Such wind fields turn
more westerly as a quick moving clipper system pushes through
this evening.

Westerly flow persists into Thursday with more breezy daytime
winds gusting again to 25 to 30 knots. These eventually shift to
northwesterly on Friday with winds falling to 10 to 15 knots as
surface high pressure builds in.

VFR conditions Saturday with winds out of the northwest. Conditions
Sunday will primarily be VFR outside any rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A multi-day period of hazardous marine conditions will continue
given the breezy pattern in place. While Small Craft Advisories
are in effect for a majority of the waters today, opted to delay
the onset of such winds over the upper tidal Potomac, as well as
the Patuxent and Patapsco Rivers. Today`s southwesterly gusts
move into the 20 to 30 knot range. Depending on how much higher
momentum air reaches the water surface, a few gale force winds
cannot be ruled out over the more southern waters.

Small Craft Advisories were extended into tonight for the wider
waters of the Chesapeake Bay down into the lower tidal Potomac.
Westerly winds may gust to around 20 to 25 knots through the
overnight period. Behind a clipper system, elevated northwesterly
winds persist into Thursday which favor additional advisories.
These may continue through Thursday night over the wider waters.
By Friday, the influence of high pressure should help lower
wind gusts back into the 10 to 15 knot range.

Winds remain near SCA levels Saturday morning. Winds quickly drop
below SCA levels Saturday afternoon, then pick back up to SCA levels
Saturday night as southerly channeling takes hold.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Behind the earlier trough, temperatures will begin to moderate
through the week before shifting to above average by the end of
the weekend. Through Thursday, breezy west to southwesterly
winds will lead to low daytime relative humidities. Fortunately,
expect good overnight recoveries ahead after a night with very
poor recoveries (35 to 55 percent). Winds gradually diminish
into Friday as high pressure builds in, lessening the fire
weather risk. The pattern remains dry through at least the first
half of the weekend before rainfall chances return to the area
by Sunday. However, wetting rain chances are low at this time.

The primary period of fire weather concern would be today
through Thursday given continued drying of the fuels each day.
Those within the Severe Drought (D2) areas would be at greatest
risk of subsequent fire weather risks.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
     Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for MDZ501-502-510.
VA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for VAZ503-504.
WV...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for WVZ501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
     evening for ANZ535-538.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...BRO/CPB
MARINE...BRO/CPB
FIRE WEATHER...BRO