Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
619 FXUS61 KLWX 230229 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 929 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday. Low pressure will track off to our northwest on Wednesday, causing a strong cold front to move through. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak ridge of high pressure will build in at the surface overnight. This will cause winds to go light or calm. Lows tonight will drop back into the 30s to near 40 beneath partly cloudy skies. Otherwise, in places that do encounter calm winds, patchy fog could develop and reduce visibility to around a mile or two. A shortwave will move by to the north on Sunday. An associated clipper low will track across Eastern Ontario and Quebec. Further to the west, high pressure will build over the Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys. No precipitation is expected locally as the aforementioned system tracks to our north, but there may be some passing clouds at times. Winds will initially be light out of the southwest, and temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s for most (40s mountains). A reinforcing cold front will move through during the afternoon hours, causing winds to turn out of the northwest and pick up in magnitude. Gusts of around 30 mph late afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Previous discussion... Gusts of around 30 mph will be possible into the evening hours. Clear skies are expected Sunday night, with lows in the 30s. High pressure will build overhead on Monday, leading to light winds and dry conditions. Skies should start out mostly sunny, but high clouds will be on the increase over the course of the day. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s to near 60. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper level trough located over the central plains deepens as it pivots eastward toward the forecast area Tuesday. At the surface, a low pressure system tracking across the Great Lakes region is pushed northeastward into Canada as the associated cold front approaches the forecast area before moving through on Wednesday. Temperatures gradually warm Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the cold front as southerly flow ushers in increased moisture and warmer air. High temperatures on tuesday will be in the 50s for most with isolated locations reaching the low 60s. On Wednesday, high temperatures rise into the 60s to low 70s across the area with only those at higher elevations staying in the 50s. Precipitation chances peak Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of the frontal passage, with conditions gradually drying out beginning Wednesday afternoon. Behind the front, surface high builds over the area Thursday and Friday. Dry conditions are expected both days. Temperatures on Thanksgiving Day will be nearly 20 degrees cooler compared to the day prior with highs in the 40s for most. Temperatures continue to cool for Friday with highs staying in the 30s and 40s across the area. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ceilings are expected to be VFR at all terminals and should remain VFR through Monday. Some patchy fog in spots could reduce visibility briefly to a mile or two but hard to pinpoint if it will be at the terminals or between the terminals at a distance. Winds will turn out of the southwest by tomorrow morning, and then northwest tomorrow afternoon behind a reinforcing cold front. Winds may gust to around 25-30 knots late tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening within northwesterly flow. Lighter winds are expected on Monday as high pressure builds in from the west. Southerly winds on Tuesday shift shift to westerly on Wednesday as a cold front approaches and moves across the terminals. South winds gust around 15 knots Tuesday afternoon before becoming light overnight. West winds gust 15 to 20 knots on Wednesday across all terminals. Precipitation chances both days will yield possible restrictions. && .MARINE... Winds diminishing overnight then turning out of the southwest Sunday morning. A cold front will move over the waters late Sunday afternoon. Winds will shift to out of the northwest behind the front and pick up in magnitude. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for all waters late tomorrow afternoon, with Small Craft Advisory winds lingering through much or all of the night across the wider waters. A few gusts could even near low- end Gale conditions late tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be on the decrease Monday as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds primarily remain below SCA criteria on Tuesday with the exception being the southern portions of the Chesapeake bay. Here, southerly channeling will lead to winds nearing SCA criteria. Winds become light overnight before shifting to westerly on Wednesday. SCA criteria winds are possible across all waters. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJP NEAR TERM...KLW/KJP SHORT TERM...KJP LONG TERM...LFR AVIATION...LFR/KLW MARINE...LFR/KLW